frazdaddy Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 18z gfs way east of 12z. Yeah it did. It's snowing in the Gulfstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 18z gfs way east of 12z. For the Wilmington, NC area either the precipitation is too far east or the warm nose is too prevalent. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Need a more NAM look to the tilt, maybe even a bit better and a lot of people would be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Need a more NAM look to the tilt, maybe even a bit better and a lot of people would be happy. Yep! Would be awesome if that happened man. Flakes flying for a lot of folks. I know it's the 18z GFS, but i'm thinking this will end up , much ado about nothing. I'm not feeling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The 12z Parallel Euro is NW of the op. Good hit for E SC and SE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Yep! Would be awesome if that happened man. Flakes flying for a lot of folks. I know it's the 18z GFS, but i'm thinking this will end up , much ado about nothing. I'm not feeling it. I am thinking the ensembles are going to give us a better idea with moisture chances and all that. If I remember correctly, the 12z GEFS members.. many had some good moisture coming through our area with cold 850s. The precipitation maps aren't really important here this far out. Edit: Yes, the ensemble mean was not the worst. Pretty good actually. 24 Hour QPF had .25 to Lexington, .50 just to Sumter or so... .75 for MYR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The lack of cold should be the biggest concern, then precip! No..right now one should be hoping for as much precip as possible. The airmass in general is cold enough IF there is a respectable amount of precip falling to cool the column. Yep! Would be awesome if that happened man. Flakes flying for a lot of folks. I know it's the 18z GFS, but i'm thinking this will end up , much ado about nothing. I'm not feeling it. lol...the 18z gfs..okie dokie then. Personally if i was in the coastal plain i'd be fairly optimistic i would at least see flakes falling at some point with the potential for more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I am thinking the ensembles are going to give us a better idea with moisture chances and all that. If I remember correctly, the 12z GEFS members.. many had some good moisture coming through our area with cold 850s. The precipitation maps aren't really important here this far out. Edit: Yes, the ensemble mean was not the worst. Pretty good actually. 24 Hour QPF had .25 to Lexington, .50 just to Sumter or so... .75 for MYR Would be great to get a NW trend starting in the future runs. Obviously, w/o sacrificing the cold, don't need WAA, it being to close to the coast. That looks pretty good overall. Not complaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 No..right now one should be hoping for as much precip as possible. The airmass in general is cold enough IF there is a respectable amount of precip falling to cool the column. lol...the 18z gfs..okie dokie then. Personally if i was in the coastal plain i'd be fairly optimistic i would at least see flakes falling at some point with the potential for more than that. They stand a far better chance overall. Than our areas do, thus far anyways. Interested to see what 0z has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The 18z NAVGEM isn't quite as ridiculous as the 12z run, but is still a huge hit for C NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I wouldn't worry yet. I expect it to wash out and then come back on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I wouldn't worry yet. I expect it to wash out and then come back on Friday. I agree. How many times have we seen this, particularly with the GFS. Now to be blunt, it might keep trending east right out to sea. But I almost expect this thing to start trending back to the west by Friday (..as you stated). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 18z GEFS drier for this area. 0.10 through the central midlands the heaviest is on the coast at 0.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I wouldn't worry too much about the 18z GFS if I lived in Eastern SC/NC. This wouldn't be a legitimate storm threat if we didn't have to deal with the GFS losing the storm at some point in the mid-range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I wouldn't worry yet. I expect it to wash out and then come back on Friday. We have a lot of model runs left. Sounds like the para dissagreed a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The ARPEGE model is NAM like.. in fact.. probably even better at 500mb. I have a suspicion if there were precip maps, this would be quite a huge Winter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 18z GEFS drier for this area. 0.10 through the central midlands the heaviest is on the coast at 0.25 I wouldn't worry about it too much yet. When the op shifts, you generally expect the ensemble suite to follow the same shift. We'll see what the 00z models bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 At this point, it really comes down to the upper level trough axis and when/where it starts the turn right. The 12z GFS and Euro both support a close off, possibly up to 250mb over SC. At H5, we want the wave to stay open as long a possible, preferably to AL/MS, or better yet GA. The Euro closes off over east TX which jacks up the orientation and result in a more gentle turn to the right. Keep that wave open and we will see a more pronounced neg tilt just east of the MS, FL Panhandle area. I will say the energy in question is still about 12hrs out from being onshore in the Pac NW, and probably 24hrs from having a complete upper air sampling over that area. The STJ is real and screaming through the Gulf on both models. We have seen more times than not this winter these short waves running along the Gulf and originating in the Pac NW trend more amplified inside of 96hrs. If that happens here I feel pretty confident we see the infamous correction and this turns in to a heavier, wetter deal, than some expect. 12z Euro valid 18z Sunday at 300mb 12z GFS same period, H3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Through 57hrs, the NAM is a fair bit quicker with the upper level trough, not as deep as the previous two runs. May be north and east, we will see here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 00z NAM says "better luck next time" outside coastal areas by 84. Even that is light moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Destructive interference with all the vorts flying around in the inter mountain west and central plains this run. Trough also took a dog step towards less amplified, not really want you want to see, maybe the navgem will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Destructive interference with all the vorts flying around in the inter mountain west and central plains this run. Trough also took a dog step towards less amplified, not really want you want to see, maybe the navgem will save us. Probably gonna be ugly from here until about 12z Friday or so. I would guess that maybe one operational model will show anything of consequence overnight. That's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looks like we will be 0/2 tonight with the NAM & GFS. GFS is still too positive by hour 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 yep way east of the 12z and 18z, ahh well, see what the euros take on it is later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 UKMET says no. Darn, well it was fun to track I spose'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Brick Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 UKMET says no. Darn, well it was fun to track I spose'. The GGEM is too far east, as well, aside from maybe the immediate coastal regions (congrats, Wilmington?... though temperatures are marginal). Maybe the NAVGEM will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Hopefully euro is a little west, but I'm still in the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 So far, the following 00z runs say no: GGEM NAM GFS UKMET This is becoming obvious. Should have known something was wrong when the JMA & The NavGEM showed the big events... along with the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
c.k.v Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'm not a frequent poster more or less trying to learn. Just a thought could this strong line of intense rain and thunderstorms be affecting the performance of the individual models. This snow was never set to affect my area of Danville anyway I was just wondering. For future reference. Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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