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Feb 7 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland

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Need a more NAM look to the tilt, maybe even a bit better and a lot of people would be happy.

Yep! Would be awesome if that happened man. Flakes flying for a lot of folks. I know it's the 18z GFS, but  i'm thinking this will end up , much ado about nothing. I'm not feeling it.

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Yep! Would be awesome if that happened man. Flakes flying for a lot of folks. I know it's the 18z GFS, but  i'm thinking this will end up , much ado about nothing. I'm not feeling it.

 

I am thinking the ensembles are going to give us a better idea with moisture chances and all that.  If I remember correctly, the 12z GEFS members.. many had some good moisture coming through our area with cold 850s.  The precipitation maps aren't really important here this far out.

 

Edit: Yes, the ensemble mean was not the worst.  Pretty good actually.

 

24 Hour QPF had .25 to Lexington, .50 just to Sumter or so... .75 for MYR

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The lack of cold should be the biggest concern, then precip!

No..right now one should be hoping for as much precip as possible. The airmass in general is cold enough IF there is a respectable amount of precip falling to cool the column.

Yep! Would be awesome if that happened man. Flakes flying for a lot of folks. I know it's the 18z GFS, but  i'm thinking this will end up , much ado about nothing. I'm not feeling it.

lol...the 18z gfs..okie dokie then. Personally if i was in the coastal plain i'd be fairly optimistic i would at least see flakes falling at some point with the potential for more than that.

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I am thinking the ensembles are going to give us a better idea with moisture chances and all that.  If I remember correctly, the 12z GEFS members.. many had some good moisture coming through our area with cold 850s.  The precipitation maps aren't really important here this far out.

 

Edit: Yes, the ensemble mean was not the worst.  Pretty good actually.

 

24 Hour QPF had .25 to Lexington, .50 just to Sumter or so... .75 for MYR

Would be great to get a NW trend starting in the future runs.  Obviously, w/o sacrificing the cold, don't need WAA, it being to close to the coast.  That looks pretty good overall.  Not complaining

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No..right now one should be hoping for as much precip as possible. The airmass in general is cold enough IF there is a respectable amount of precip falling to cool the column.

lol...the 18z gfs..okie dokie then. Personally if i was in the coastal plain i'd be fairly optimistic i would at least see flakes falling at some point with the potential for more than that.

They stand a far better chance overall. Than our areas do, thus far anyways. Interested to see what 0z has to say.

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At this point, it really comes down to the upper level trough axis and when/where it starts the turn right. The 12z GFS and Euro both support a close off, possibly up to 250mb over SC. At H5, we want the wave to stay open as long a possible, preferably to AL/MS, or better yet GA. The Euro closes off over east TX which jacks up the orientation and result in a more gentle turn to the right. Keep that wave open and we will see a more pronounced neg tilt just east of the MS, FL Panhandle area.

I will say the energy in question is still about 12hrs out from being onshore in the Pac NW, and probably 24hrs from having a complete upper air sampling over that area. The STJ is real and screaming through the Gulf on both models. We have seen more times than not this winter these short waves running along the Gulf and originating in the Pac NW trend more amplified inside of 96hrs. If that happens here I feel pretty confident we see the infamous correction and this turns in to a heavier, wetter deal, than some expect.

12z Euro valid 18z Sunday at 300mb

post-382-0-85991100-1454545140_thumb.jpg

12z GFS same period, H3

post-382-0-96531000-1454545203_thumb.jpg

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Destructive interference with all the vorts flying around in the inter mountain west and central plains this run. Trough also took a dog step towards less amplified, not really want you want to see, maybe the navgem will save us.

Probably gonna be ugly from here until about 12z Friday or so. I would guess that maybe one operational model will show anything of consequence overnight. That's it.

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I'm not a frequent poster more or less trying to learn. Just a thought could this strong line of intense rain and thunderstorms be affecting the performance of the individual models. This snow was never set to affect my area of Danville anyway I was just wondering. For future reference.

Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk

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