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Feb 7 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland

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The Euro really bombs the low compared to the 00z run, though (966 mb compared to 983 mb at hr 120).  The precip field is definitely a bit further west and it's slower.

 

The GFS really slowed down the low as it started to bomb.  Could be fun times for someone who gets under the heavy returns for a few hours.

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It looks like it closed off pretty early, in OK this run.  Why is this storm in a general sense not picking up the gulf moisture when it moves east?  Is it because the trough is not negative tilt until it's too far east?  Models seem pretty clear this is a eastern NC storm if at all, but I'm curious on the mechanism on why this energy isn't pushing overrunning precipitation earlier. 

There's a clean sweep of the moisture after today's front...so behind that, it really dries out when looking at 700mb.  So when our wave approaches, there's no return moisture flow...it's mainly dynamically driven precip on the NW side of the sfc and mid-level lows...so yes, we would want to see it close off / be stronger / and more negative tilt...and do all that quicker, to see more precip inland

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Huh, Myrtle beach may get an inch or 2 possibly huh? I took off Sunday night for the super bowl! Let's see if I can kill 2 birds with one stone :)

 

You just might.  Windy driving rainstorm kills your power.   No snow, no super bowl.  Both birds killed with one wet stone.

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Man if the euro is right on how it bombs out this storm and it can set the fireworks or process off about 3 to 6 hours sooner some folks in NC are going to be shoveling out with a bulldozer. Those are cat 2 to cat 3 pressures

 

Euro always does this about 4-5 days out.  The day of, the storm will probably be 20mb higher than what it's showing.

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Soundings support snow in the Columbia, SC area per 18z NAM and it's not even cut off at 500mb by hour 84.

 

This is before the storm really gets going.. and not sure much more moisture would make it... but I would guess so.

 

Yep. The only layer that is a problem is the actual surface temps which start out warm but freezing/wetbulb zero heights are so low that rain would change to snow fairly quickly and  temps at the surface would quickly fall...likely faster than being shown. It seems a like a fairly good bet right now there is a good chance of seeing snow/change to snow from the midlands to the coast if there is precipitation and it's not suppressed.

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