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Feb 7 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland

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I agree, that would bust RAH and MHXs forecast if it verified, big time.

 

This system could do it for sure. Just my gut tells me rain because I can count on one hand the number of times a top down rate driven system has actually worked out for us here in the coastal plain.

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This system could do it for sure. Just my gut tells me rain because I can count on one hand the number of times a top down rate driven system has actually worked out for us here in the coastal plain.

We should know here shortly. It has us starting as pingers around 4am and then a change to snow dominant type around 10. If it is raining at 7 in the morning then it is wrong.

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I hate to get sucked in but the HRRR's snow flag is starting to go off too. You can likely cut the ratio in half, but still 2-4" for the coastal plain, not finished either.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Well that would make the most sense seeing that we have no watches up. To be sure if MHX was putting any weight into these hi-res solutions they would be pulling the trigger on a winter weather advisory but they haven't.

 

I'm on 3rd shift and at work if you feel like calling me man.

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I want to post this here.  For anyone who has been disobeying the AmericanWX staff messages about not posting them.  I will also post this again in the next potential Winter weather thread.  I hope you guys save the image (mods) and post it directly when asked about the posting of Weatherbell maps.  Ryan sent me this directly just now.  I asked him to give me an absolute explanation I could put out there from him.  He told me he didn't need me to police the forums or anything, but I wanted to post it and let everyone know the actual fact.  Please don't share anything outside of WMO essential Euro products from Weatherbell (on the ECMWF side).  If you like the data, subscribe.. it makes it easier on you in the longer range.. not having to rely on forum posters to post data for your area.

 

 

Just to clarify, he singles out not to post Euro products, but what about other guidance such as the RAP, as I posted a while ago? 

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Just to clarify, he singles out not to post Euro products, but what about other guidance such as the RAP, as I posted a while ago? 

 

Its fine, just don't habitually do it from what I hear.  I deleted the post.  I can't speak for the company or any of the products they offer.  I can tell you though.. that Weatherbell maps are the best out there!

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FWIW, Euro shifted a bit west with its snow. Has 5-8" in Fayetteville, even 2-4" at RDU on south. 

Euro has the look of the precip shield moving northwest a bit, like the HRRR....didn't have that look in the 12z run.  Also, the sfc low took a decent jog to the NW this run.  It basically moves directly north from 12z to 21z tomorrow.  

 

The French model may of have the best handle on this system all along....going back a couple days

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Based on radar and the hrrr, rap, and now euro, I think the best chance for accumulations is along and 30 miles either side of a line from Lumberton to Greenville. Fayetteville and Clinton look to be as good a place as any for this one.

 

Still trying to not get sucked in by these encouraging signs but I'd think some big fat flakes flying is certainly within the realm of belief at this point.

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QPF Estimates on the Euro for 12z (old run) -> 00z (new run)...

 

Myrtle Beach: 1.3 (old) -> 2.3 (new)

Florence: 0.6 -> 0.6

Charleston: 1.1 -> 2.1

Fayetteville: 0.1 -> 0.8

Southern Wake County: Trace -> 0.3

 

There's a spot halfway between Fayetteville and Wilmington that increased from 0.2 to 2.0 on the Euro this run.

 

Greenville, NC precip is only 0.1 or so...very tight precip gradient between there and Myrtle Beach.

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QPF Estimates on the Euro for 12z (old run) -> 00z (new run)...

 

Myrtle Beach: 1.3 (old) -> 2.3 (new)

Florence: 0.6 -> 0.6

Charleston: 1.1 -> 2.1

Fayetteville: 0.1 -> 0.8

Southern Wake County: Trace -> 0.3

 

There's a spot halfway between Fayetteville and Wilmington that increased from 0.2 to 2.0 on the Euro this run.

 

Greenville, NC precip is only 0.1 or so...very tight precip gradient between there and Myrtle Beach.

 

Yeah the hi-res models are in pretty stark contrast with that and they are painting us with a few inches of snow here in Greenville. Who knows how this will shake out. Interesting storm for sure.

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Just to clarify, he singles out not to post Euro products, but what about other guidance such as the RAP, as I posted a while ago?

Everything is allowed to be posted in moderation EXCEPT for high resolution Euro products. WMO-Essential (think of it as the 24 hour maps all free model sites have) is allowed to be posted, just not the high resolution ecmwf maps. So Euro snowfall maps is a no-no since that parameter is not available with WMO-essential.

Ryan does not care about anything else being posted as you don't have to pay for a license to generate the maps. Anything that is publicly available (GFS, GEFS, RAP, CMC, CFSv2, NAM, JMA, SREF, etc) is allowed.

The only issue Ryan would have with the free maps being posted is if you're using his links to duplicate or generate model runs or embedding his maps on another website.

Hope this clears up the almost weekly debate about Weatherbell maps. I'm sure Ryan loves his free maps being shared, it generates subscribers.

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Precip just started here in Greenville as all snow with big flakes.

 

EDIT: Well I watched it snow for about 10 minutes walked to the computer to type this post and when I went back outside it was all sleet.

Pretty cool. You guys could get a nice surprise if it goes back to SN. The HRRR looks great there as far as precip, especially south of town. What is your temperature?

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Pretty cool. You guys could get a nice surprise if it goes back to SN. The HRRR looks great there as far as precip, especially south of town. What is your temperature?

 

Temp is 39 and its straight pounding sleet at the moment with some snow mixed in. Its maybe 80/20 sleet to snow but the MHX disco just came out and they are pretty meh about it and really say only a mix with perhaps a dusting on the grassy surfaces.

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