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Feb 7 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland

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RAH updated AFD...

 

* I can't get the NOAA page to load on any browsers, so had to copy/paste from the Weathebot... unable to highlight the 'important stuff', but they don't sound too optimistic.*

BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS SINCE 21Z...STARTING TO HAVE MORECONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z ECMWF VERSUS THE MUCH WETTER GFS SOLUTION. THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP WILL CROSS INTO SOUTHERN NC PRIOR TOMIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE BONE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...EXPECT THIS BATCH OFPRECIP TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE...AND GO MORE TOWARDMOISTENING THE LOWER LAYERS.THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CAUSE AN AREA OF LOWPRESSURE...ANALYZED AT 02Z OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST...TOSTRENGTHEN AND LIFT NEWD. STILL APPEARS THAT THIS SFC LOW WILLREMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO LIMIT THE WINTRY THREAT FOR CENTRALNC. IN ADDITION...WHILE LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL INCREASE INCONJUNCTION WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OFFSHORE...THE NLY FLOW WILL NOTADVECT/SUPPLEMENT A FRESH BATCH OF COLD AIR INTO CENTRAL NC.THUS...IN ORDER TO GET WINTRY PRECIPITATION...WILL NEED TO DEPENDUPON: 1.) EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER TO COOL TEMPSTO AT OR BELOW FREEZING; 2.) INCREASE PRECIP RATES.WITH SFC WET BULB TEMPS CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERNCOUNTIES...THIS MECHANISM WILL DO LITTLE TO CHANGE PRECIP TO AWINTRY CHARACTER. THUS..WILL NEED TO DEPEND UPON ENHANCED PRECIPRATES TO BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE SURFACE. WITH THE BEST LIFTPROJECTED TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-95...THIS MECHANISM MAY BEREALIZED OVER OUR FAR SE-EASTERN COUNTIES. PER PARTIAL THICKNESSESAND MODEL SOUNDING DEPICTION...EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME MIXEDWITH SNOW. DURING TIMES OF MODERATE-BRIEFLY HEAVY PRECIPRATES...COULD SEE P-TYPE BECOME MORE SNOW THAN RAIN WITH SOMEACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS. WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ANDANTECEDENT GROUND TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM (MID 40S-NEAR 50)...EXPECTANY SNOW/SLUSH THAT ACCUMULATES TO MELT RELATIVELY QUICKLY. THUSEXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO BE A RELATIVELY NON-EVENT WITH LITTLE/NOIMPACT TO TRAVEL. ANY ACCUMULATION TO BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.AT THIS TIME...APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY MIX TO OCCUR BETWEEN08Z-14Z....AND MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...ANDMORE SO ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.  AFTER 14Z...PRECIP RATES WILL BEDECREASING...LIMITING WINTRY MIX. AS THE AIR MASS WARMSDIURNALLY...EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME ALL RAIN BY MID DAY-EARLYAFTERNOON.
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Hope you guys get something nice.  I think I am about to bow out for my area and maybe even Columbia.  NAM might be too cold and it looks to definitely be too wet here.  GFS makes more sense.  

 

I have a lot of soul searching to do.  I need to learn to trust the Euro/UKMet combo versus all this other guidance.

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Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue)

2/6/16, 21:24

"Warm-core seclusion" is end result of extreme extratropical cyclone lifecycle. This one is historically strong pic.twitter.com/8IJXkJ8yEV

fp9EpzY.jpg

Vozbph2.jpg

WdtkrrI.jpg

That is some impressive stuff! That looks better than most hurricanes in the Atlantic and it's February ! Now, if we could get one like this going in the gulf in the next week or two!
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hrrr trying hard to throw precip back towards rdu tomorrow morning, eastern nc looks good.

 

 

That looks great and would love for the RAP totals to be correct but man experience tells me to expect rain and hope for better. Very few times does it work out in our favor.

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