JoshM Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Hell JC, that 12KM gets heavier returns into Lexington. 50 miles more West and we'd be sitting pretty. Yes... I'll take the 12k FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Hell JC, that 12KM gets heavier returns into Lexington. 50 miles more West and we'd be sitting pretty. Yeah we would, didn't the NAM verify well with the last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Yeah we would, didn't the NAM verify well with the last storm? Honestly, I look at so much of this stuff I have no real idea. I was focusing heavily on the RGEM at the time, and it was modeling us too cold. The HRRR was all over the place.. with precip placement and what kind for us along with the RAP though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It opened back up at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 4k nam vs hrrr. hrrr has no precip into rdu really. im siding with the hrrr. drizzle with a wet flake or two before drying out. Gut says we'll be hard pressed to get moisture that far inland, I-95 special seems right to me or maybe just east of I-95. Reflectivity on the HRRR on tropicaltidbits is likely wrong as it's not a snowly look early over Wake County...it's algorithm doesn't seem right for this system that relies solely on dynamic cooling. We need a killer band, if we could get one over Wake then look out...column would get saturated and cool rather quickly, overwhelming any lower level warm noses and we'd get pasted. Just may be a hair too east for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepSouthSC Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Yeah we would, didn't the NAM verify well with the last storm? I do believe it did handle the last storm well within the last 48 hours, if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Gut says we'll be hard pressed to get moisture that far inland, I-95 special seems right to me or maybe just east of I-95. Reflectivity on the HRRR on tropicaltidbits is likely wrong as it's not a snowly look early over Wake County...it's algorithm doesn't seem right for this system that relies solely on dynamic cooling. We need a killer band, if we could get one over Wake then look out...column would get saturated and cool rather quickly, overwhelming any lower level warm noses and we'd get pasted. Just may be a hair too east for us. every friggin model has heavy precip just stop as it hits the wall that is wake county. at least i'll have the super bowl to keep me from getting bitter as areas south and east get 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 every friggin model has heavy precip just stop as it hits the wall that is wake county. at least i'll have the super bowl to keep me from getting bitter as areas south and east get 2-4". meh no one down this way is holding their breath, might be SE NC get that but even up here at PGV we are on the outside looking in and we got blanked in the last one as well..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Gut says we'll be hard pressed to get moisture that far inland, I-95 special seems right to me or maybe just east of I-95. Reflectivity on the HRRR on tropicaltidbits is likely wrong as it's not a snowly look early over Wake County...it's algorithm doesn't seem right for this system that relies solely on dynamic cooling. We need a killer band, if we could get one over Wake then look out...column would get saturated and cool rather quickly, overwhelming any lower level warm noses and we'd get pasted. Just may be a hair too east for us.There are flurries near Brick already! Start the obs thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 meh no one down this way is holding their breath, might be SE NC get that but even up here at PGV we are on the outside looking in and we got blanked in the last one as well..... idk, hrrr looks really good for eastern 3rd of nc. heavy bands = heavy wet snow that will stick easy. i think and hope you cash in on this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 every friggin model has heavy precip just stop as it hits the wall that is wake county. at least i'll have the super bowl to keep me from getting bitter as areas south and east get 2-4". The precip wasn't even supposed to get into NC for the Carolina Crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The precip wasn't even supposed to get into NC for the Carolina Crusher. Wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The precip wasn't even supposed to get into NC for the Carolina Crusher. Model quality was even worse in 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Wrong. Correct. It was actually supposed to snow just a little, with higher totals down east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Models and totals are all over the place...trends have been north and west...confidence seems low with the models and we'll just have to wait and see...it's been fun tracking it and imo totals shift north a bit (been the deal all winter)...more to come this February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Correct. It was actually supposed to snow just a little, with higher totals down east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 idk, hrrr looks really good for eastern 3rd of nc. heavy bands = heavy wet snow that will stick easy. i think and hope you cash in on this one! We will see, temp is 40 on my porch but clouds are here, 100 miles north its 28 lol hope that north wind gets going and drags some of that this way, a strong low moving more N up the coast ought to do it too......again this is so close to a decent event for here and its most likely gonna whiff.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Can we please get back to the future. It's not 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Can we please get back to the future. It's not 2000. Okay, but the setup is comparable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Can we please get back to the future. It's not 2000.Yeah, I know! The models were better in 2000 than they are now! Where we are going, we won't need roads! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I see the trends and I see the possibilities...but I'm not sold at all for Wake.. yeah I think I see some wet fluffy flakes mixed in every once in a while...but I just don't see this being anything more than that. I'd love to be wrong, but I have to keep my wish casting put away and keep it real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 So is everyone buying the abrupt stop and 90 degree turn east at the Wake County line? Seems sketch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 So is everyone buying the abrupt stop and 90 degree turn east at the Wake County line? Seems sketch. I think It's due to the way it bombs out. As it bombs out, the low gets pulled west... but as its strengthening slows, the low corrects back eastward, hence the "90 degree turn". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 So is everyone buying the abrupt stop and 90 degree turn east at the Wake County line? Seems sketch. It's not uncommon at all with bombing lows to stall and turn right (see the DC Mauler last month). It could happen. We'll see. It's a tight cutoff, so a 50 mile error will make a huge difference for places like Raleigh, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Heavy rain here and 43 in Charleston. Wunderground radar showing snow in Asheboro, NC and west of Lake Norman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 So is everyone buying the abrupt stop and 90 degree turn east at the Wake County line? Seems sketch. Agreed with the sketch piece...never viewed a map with right-angled isobars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Saw a report of flurries over toward Knightdale in wake county in the past half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Been outside to see if it's making it down. Nada as if yet just virga, but ceilings have lowered alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 That's For THE WUNDERGROUND Radar Post above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 NWS has snow in the forecast for Waycross GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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