Disco-lemonade Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm clearly hallucinating but doesn't it look theres a comma head coming off jacksonville? http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/anim_serc.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm clearly hallucinating but doesn't it look theres a comma head coming off jacksonville? http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/anim_serc.gif H7 is stepping up to the plate followed by h8 and h5 But yeah pretty on par. Now things should be cooling aloft and with more precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Currently 33 here, and mostly clear. I have a forecasted low of 33 according to the NWS. Appears temps will drop well below forecasted, unless something drastic happens in the next half-hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherExperiment Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 A friend in southern Lexington SC (Pelion area)is currently reporting sleet. I am in West Columbia not even rain here at the moment Radar does show Pelion getting clipped around 6:30-6:45pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 18z 13km GFS, sure wish I could see thickness to determine how the SN flag came up with this. This looks extremely marginal, rain to maybe a mix and then back to rain. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I may be mistaken but I thought the OP GFS is the 13km GFS now? It was replaced with the upgrade? In that case you definitely have thickness...the OP GFS on WxBell is the 13km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 NWS Raleigh Weather Briefing Issued 7:30PM 2/6/16 http://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arandall Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 NWS report sounds about right.. Just not seeing much to support it being cold enough for a large event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looking here http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx It sure does look like east of Jacksonville the low is starting to get going. My knowledge is limited but you can see a spin and a slight NNE movement. Anyone else confirm or deny this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 KCAE updated their discussion saying no Winter Weather Advisory and observations and RAP/HRRR modeling keeping the moisture East. Fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I may be mistaken but I thought the OP GFS is the 13km GFS now? It was replaced with the upgrade? In that case you definitely have thickness...the OP GFS on WxBell is the 13km. You are correct Jon. I am using the Model Center and there does appear to be a resolution dif on the GFS snow map, vs the 13km graphic I posted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandonInSC Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 KCAE updated their discussion saying no Winter Weather Advisory and observations and RAP/HRRR modeling keeping the moisture East. Fwiw. Madonna's "Borderline" has been the theme of this winter and with little support beyond the Nam/French model this seems like the right call, I guess. I'm still hoping for some token flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 We are getting a little sleet here in Greenville. Never saw that coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Madonna's "Borderline" has been the theme of this winter and with little support beyond the Nam/French model this seems like the right call, I guess. I'm still hoping for some token flakes. 18z ARPEGE even shifting precip East. Same with NAM for us. For others, it may be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 We are getting a little sleet here in Greenville. Never saw that coming. I was wondering if it was reaching the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 KCAE updated their discussion saying no Winter Weather Advisory and observations and RAP/HRRR modeling keeping the moisture East. Fwiw. That's not exactly what they said..... CAE.... SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORTED THE MODEL FORECAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATED A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A BAROCLINIC LEAF WAS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. RADAR DISPLAYED RAIN MOVING INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WET-BULB COOLING WAS HELPING SUPPORT A LITTLE SLEET IN SOME SECTIONS AT THE ONSET. THE MODELS DIFFER IN REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BY MORNING. THE NAM BRINGS THE LOW CLOSEST TO THE COAST..BUT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER...WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHERE THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD SETS UP LATE TONIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT OBSERVATION ARE INDICATING...WHICH WOULD MEAN WE SHOULD BE STARTING TONIGHT OFF A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE. THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTENING THROUGH THE COLUMN DOES OCCUR...BUT AS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS COOL DOWN...THERE BECOMES SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION OF THE PROFILE. THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS BEGIN TO DRY THE PROFILE OUT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION LATE TONIGHT. THIS DISCREPANCY LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY OVERNIGHT. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/SREF/RAP SOLUTIONS OF MARGINAL MOISTURE IN THE SNOW REGION. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SNOW MIXTURE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. STILL THINKING THERE MAY BE A BRIEF CHANGE TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW BEGINNING AROUND 08Z. THE GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE IF DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW RESULTS IN STRONG INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AND SOIL/ROAD TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WELL MINIMIZING IMPACTS. WPC STILL KEEPS ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW OUT OF THE REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT DEPENDING UPON HOW CONDITIONS DEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 That's not exactly what they said..... True, SREF seems agressive here still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Friend reporting sleet in melrose heights in Cola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 NAM is looking pretty good. Lot more precip in SC than at this hour last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 True, SREF seems agressive here still. That's real aggressive for many areas. Close to 1" near RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Current surface features *time sensitive* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This is why the SREF continues to be amped up, thank the ARW (red). 5 members hugging the coast at 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Snow in mooresville I've seen my winter snow 3 times now. Whatever else comes is a bonus now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 00z NAM is very nice, to bad its the outlier. It sure has been consistent though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 We have sleet falling between Myrtle beach and Georgetown not much but it's there. Ed Piatrowski is calling for a half inch off immediate coast with a dusting along the coast. Possibly more locally if a sweet spot is hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 00z NAM is very nice, to bad its the outlier. It sure has been consistent though. 12km has crazy SLP track...4km has it at 969 in 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12km has crazy SLP track...4km has it at 969 in 24 hrs Somebody could be very happy tomorrow, can't wait to see how this thing plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 4k nam vs hrrr. hrrr has no precip into rdu really. im siding with the hrrr. drizzle with a wet flake or two before drying out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Somebody could be very happy tomorrow, can't wait to see how this thing plays out. Hell JC, that 12KM gets heavier returns into Lexington. 50 miles more West and we'd be sitting pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Somebody could be very happy tomorrow, can't wait to see how this thing plays out. Yeah ya never know with this kind of setup, I would love for it to come north some more ( 95% of the time I never want a NW trend lol) Me I riding the WRF-ARW train......honestly if I wake up an see some fatties flying I will be happy, my kid got a drone with a video camera on it for Xmas and I would love to take it up in a heavy straight down snow and see what kind of video I get..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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