No snow for you Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Well, looking at the 22z 0hr RAP, there is still a cutoff over Northern Alabama. Was supposed to be opened by now. Does that mean more East then? Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Does that mean more East then? Correct? No, more west if it closes and stays closed earlier I belive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 GEFS Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Well, looking at the 22z 0hr RAP, there is still a cutoff over Northern Alabama. Was supposed to be opened by now. Not only that, it appears that it is the more northern ULL that formed that the models weren't showing, not the southern one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Earlier I post the first image. I said then that would be SLP popping of JAX, FL . Well from then to now that cluster has been in the same area. Last couple frames on Radar show moisture coming in around that location. Still the SLP. But if you follow that area there is a line that appears off the coast south of the rain bands .Then it starts filling in. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_loop.php Thats the surface trough axis or the path of the storm. Phew if it's that close to the coast.... Surprise a lot of people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Not only that, it appears that it is the more northern ULL that formed that the models weren't showing, not the southern one: That image should update again soon and we if it is still north and not opened up or goes back south that will be different from what the models were showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Earlier I post the first image. I said then that would be SLP popping of JAX, FL . Well from then to now that cluster has been in the same area. Last couple frames on Radar show moisture coming in around that location. Still the SLP. But if you follow that area there is a line that appears off the coast south of the rain bands .Then it starts filling in. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_loop.php Thats the surface trough axis or the path of the storm. I'm very confused looking at my data sources. Where do you mean the SLP is going to form with your post? Jacksonville is way too far North, and modeling pops it right off an area between West Palm Beach and Fort Pierce... looking at wind streamlines verifies it on my end. Or are you talking about something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Looks like the SLP is already forming East of FL, as planned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Looks like the SLP is already forming East of FL, as planned I think an hour or two quicker also vs older guidance. Wow, that's way out there to the East. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I think an hour or two quicker also vs older guidance. Wow, that's way out there to the East. Meh Looks like it's building towards the FL coast though, so SLP should eventually pop right over the FL coast or just off shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 That image should update again soon and we if it is still north and not opened up or goes back south that will be different from what the models were showing. It updated- ULL grew a bit larger. Looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Looks like the SLP is already forming East of FL, as planned I think an hour or two quicker also vs older guidance. Wow, that's way out there to the East. Meh The mesoanaylysis has to put at 1016mb low somewhere, I wouldn't draw any conclusions off that placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Brad Panovich Verified account @wxbrad 5m5 minutes ago Fun times, trends are getting interesting fast! #snomg #ncwx #scex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Earlier I post the first image. I said then that would be SLP popping of JAX, FL . Well from then to now that cluster has been in the same area. Last couple frames on Radar show moisture coming in around that location. Still the SLP. But if you follow that area there is a line that appears off the coast south of the rain bands .Then it starts filling in. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_loop.php Thats the surface trough axis or the path of the storm. So what you're saying this is what you think the path will end up being? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I guess we can rule out 18" of snow in GA like the NAM was spitting out yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 That's not a very high % is it ? Less than a 50% chance of 1 inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Quite surprised at WRAL's mention of the snow/rain tonight and tomorrow. Usually their conservative forecasting would lend a "move along....nothing to see here" type approach, but not so much this evening now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 So what you're saying this is what you think the path will end up being? I can't imagine it being that close to the coast (center track). If it is, all the models are wrong and forecasts are busted. I'll take my Blizzard and be happy, but I don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 That's not a very high % is it ? Less than a 50% chance of 1 inch of snow.Go back to sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I can't imagine it being that close to the coast (center track). If it is, all the models are wrong and forecasts are busted. I'll take my Blizzard and be happy, but I don't see it. I don't really see it either... but I don't know, here is the 2 hour pressure change, you can see the movement north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 That's not a very high % is it ? Less than a 50% chance of 1 inch of snow.chase the upslope it's your best bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 chase the upslope it's your best bet. Are you going to Soco ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Are you going to Soco ?sure am! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Looks mighty wet and not so much frozen for most of us. That Great Lakes low really is screwing it up for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 10m10 minutes ago Pennsylvania, USA just featured @lessigman on raging weatherbull video on http://weatherbell.com on Carolina sideswiper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 To answer yalls question go back and read my comments a couple pages back but yes. Overall about 75-90 miles off coast. Like I commented earlier about the cluster of storms near Jax Fl they have sat there all day combine with the fact of the main frontgenesis is been in the same area . Now the upper low coming into play is giving life to the situation. The last hour or so of radar. Pay attention to the rain bands along the coast. You can clearly see the features but. But notice the line. Thats the surface trough axis. First image from earlier today and morning. But the SLP is staying off shore how far the moisture gets in a diff ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 18z 13km GFS, sure wish I could see thickness to determine how the SN flag came up with this. This looks extremely marginal, rain to maybe a mix and then back to rain. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ghost Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 A friend in southern Lexington SC (Pelion area)is currently reporting sleet. I am in West Columbia not even rain here at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Like I commented earlier about the cluster of storms near Jax Fl they have sat there all day combine with the fact of the main frontgenesis is been in the same area . Now the upper low coming into play is giving life to the situation. The last hour or so of radar. Pay attention to the rain bands along the coast. You can clearly see the features but. But notice the line. Thats the surface trough axis. I was just noticing this very same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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