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Feb 7 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland

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May be creeping up on tropical storm force gusts in the Myrtle beach area. I'm still holding on to the dynamic cooling possibly giving us some flakes

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WIND

ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY.

* WINDS...A STRENGTHENING COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE BY THE COAST

DURING SUNDAY RESULTING IN NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH

GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE

IMMEDIATE COAST.

 

ILM suggested earlier that if it bombs (which seems incresingly likely), there wouldn't be a problem bringing down a bunch of cold air and that should be good for an accumulating event down toward MYR. 

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A lot of the information in the wall of AFDs above is over 12 hours old.

 

RAH's latest related to this storm only...

 

THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND NORTHWEST EXTENT OF PRECIP...WITH THE 12Z GFS STILL
A WESTERN OUTLIER AND THE ECMWF CURIOUSLY WEAKER AND A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN THE ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THE ECMWF IS ALSO
THE DRIEST MODEL WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS A FAIRLY
EXTREME OUTLIER SHOWING OVER A HALF INCH AS FAR NORTH AS JOHNSTON
COUNTY. THE BEST SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE 0.2" TO 0.4" SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM LAURINBURG TO WILSON. GIVEN THAT MUCH OF THIS WILL
FALL AS RAIN AND THE DURATION OF A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL BE
LIMITED TO HEAVIER POCKETS OF PRECIP.... OUR THINKING IS THAT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND CONFINED TO
GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES...THOUGH AN ISOLATED AREA WITH SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLY.
NO ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT
THIS TIME.

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I was wondering if that was a possibility despite the warm surface temps. Temps are cold in the mid levels and dry in the low levels. I've seen it before with surface temps like this. Back in the 90s after reaching a high in the freaking upper 50s early in the afternoon, it started sleeting at around 4pm with a temp around 49/50 and it started to snow by around 7 or 8..and over all got  3 or 4 inches that night. I don't know what the dewpoints were but they had to be pretty dang low as temps went from 49/50 to the upper 30s in a couple of hours. I remember it well because I had never seen sleet with temps that warm before and was absolutely amazed by it. To this day i still haven't seen it repeated...which is why i've been watching those showers just to the south of me wondering if it was possible...so am really happy to see you report it.

I've seen it sleet around 50 degrees several times growing up. Heck...I've seen it snow (and stick) at 40  :D  

 

ILM suggested earlier that if it bombs (which seems incresingly likely), there wouldn't be a problem bringing down a bunch of cold air and that should be good for an accumulating event down toward MYR. 

I've been saying all along that if I lived from FLO to MYR I'd be a little excited at the possibility  ;)   

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Just out from rah

 

Good map to let me make a quick point for my Western Midlands friends... and possibly closer to the Upstate..  See the squares closer to the SC coast on that map wake4est posted?   You want the ones on the Western side of the black track to verify.

 

I see 7-8 of them.

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I love these systems, really we wont know who/where if any will see any appreciable snow, I prefer these setups to the dreaded big total forecast....I would rather them have to issue a late winter storm warning than have one out for 24 hrs that doesnt verify.....

 

DP is 23 here lowest its been so far this week temp is 46 , clouds a high and very scattered if we can get some good cooling and get lower than our forecasted low of 33 that would make me happy...the cold air supply is pretty meh but its not horrible either....it could be just enough....

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I modified this WPC map with low track/clusters from 12z to showcase where the low needs to be to get better precipitation inland, especially for SC.  I have no idea what those pink tracks are/model.

 

This is no longer an official product since I have made changes to it.  Circled in red are the low positions that could very well work better for us:

 

newmap.png

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Woah there girl. Calm down.

image.png

Gotta love the trends. I could easily see this turning out to be one of those systems where the models just keep correcting NW even during the event and even then they don't pull NW enough. I have seen that with a few big systems.

That's what I am thinking, too. I just don't think the precip is going to hit a wall and stop.

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That's what I am thinking, too. I just don't think the precip is going to hit a wall and stop.

 

It's not the precipitation hitting a brick wall.  It's the overall motion of the storm and it pulling away.  Need closer to the coast track.  Nobody knows the exact track this is going to take, it hasn't even gotten going yet.

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It's not the precipitation hitting a brick wall. It's the overall motion of the storm and it pulling away. Need closer to the coast track. Nobody knows the exact track this is going to take, it hasn't even gotten going yet.

Yeah, that is what I meant. Just think the track is going to come further northwest as it gets going.

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Earlier I post the first image. I said then that would be SLP popping of JAX, FL . Well from then to now that cluster has been in the same area. Last couple frames on Radar show moisture coming in around that location. Still the SLP. But if you follow that area there is a line that appears off the coast south of the rain bands .Then it starts filling in. 

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_loop.php

Thats the surface trough axis or the path of the storm.

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