NWNC2015 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Ummm. Radar showing snow in northern AL heading into northern GA. Still cannot see the low, though. Doesn't matter what the radar shows if its not hitting the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It has been for a couple of days.Not really, game changed overnight for Wake County. This was SC's storm up until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Good point. Really GFS is all rain for Raleigh. Notice the soundings. Raleigh. Even a warm nose present above and below 850 700. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2016020612_F24_36.0000N_78.5000W.png Notice the warm nose durring the highest mositure. Close to 0C. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2016020612_F27_36.0000N_78.5000W.png That cools off. But then the moisture moves out. DP temps or Wetbulbs dont support nothing frozen from 925 to surface. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2016020612_F30_36.0000N_78.5000W.png Just verbatim on those soundings, the full column is at 0 deg or below except in the surface layer....and even there, the wet bulbs temperatures are below freezing except right at the surface where it is barely above...so that's snow or a mix, but not seeing all rain there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Not really, game changed overnight for Wake County. This was SC's storm up until then. But it really started heading that way for a while with most of the models trending more and more northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Just verbatim on those soundings, the full column is at 0 deg or below except in the surface layer....and even there, the wet bulbs temperatures are below freezing except right at the surface where it is barely above...so that's snow or a mix, but not seeing all rain there yea those soundings look good to me. let me overcome warm BL temps rather than a stout warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Here's what the NAM says for CAE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 over half of the gefs members have a decent snow for the rdu area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandonInSC Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 You couldn't pick a better storm for our area than what the nam is showing lol, I guess that why it's sure to not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Snow RDU east but ARW destroys I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 UKMET was a little improved. The low gets going a little stronger/faster which results in more precip further west in SC vs previous run. Precip line looks to get close to the triangle, but not significant moisture there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 WPC Worst Case Scenario (95% Percentile) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z GFS snow depth: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=06&model_init_hh=12&fhour=30¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z Euro is certainly a bump NW through hour 24. More precip into SC. But still not enough for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Updated Avaition forecast from RAH -- we(KJNX) get a participation trophy .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE FLORIDACOAST THIS EVENING AND THEN TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHTAND SUNDAY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN DRAMATICALLY OFF THE NCCOAST...BRINGING PRECIP AND STRENGTHENING AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDSTO EASTERN NC. THERE IS STILL AN UNUSUAL AMOUNT OF FORECASTUNCERTAINTY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT IT APPEARS MVFR CEILINGS ANDA CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE GREATEST FROM KMEB/KJNX/KRWI ANDEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE1000FT...MORE IN THE 2000-3000FT RANGE...EXCEPT IN THE HEAVIESTPRECIP. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WINDSWILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25KT AND HIGHER TO THE EAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 florence is the winner on the euro, 5" on the snow maps. mixing will occur so probably more like 2" or so. has literally zero precip for rdu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Florence, SC Jackpot. 2-4" on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Party at Buckeyes! I have my flashlight, black construction paper, blanket and chair ready! The hrrr said there might be a flizzard incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I have my flashlight, black construction paper, blanket and chair ready! The hrrr said there might be a flizzard incoming I hope so, I'm rooting for you guys. Y'all are well overdue! Hopefully y'all can get some heavier rates an evaporating cooling will take place. Wish you guys the best of luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Looks to be still closed off at 500mb, anybody wanna chime in on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Euro finally catching on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOREHEAD CITY...BEAUFORT...NEWPORT... ATLANTIC BEACH...EMERALD ISLE...KITTY HAWK...NAGS HEAD...MANTEO... RODANTHE...BUXTON...HATTERAS VILLAGE...OCRACOKE 1252 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * WINDS...NORTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. * TIMING...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL MAKING TREES MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FALLING. STRONG WINDS WILL BLOW AROUND LOOSE OBJECTS AND CREATE ADVERSE DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 If you look at Radar of course precip has broke out across S GA. But off the coast of JAX that cluster of storms is the SLP. If you look at SPC Meso page. Windstreams converage near and the greatest Surface and 700mb Frontogenesis resides along. The is the greatest baroclinic zone. Now just wait for the UL energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Paging Shawn. Please report to the rocket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Besides the Carolina crusher, are there anymore storms anyone can remember , with a 50-100 mile shift inside of 12 hours or so? As we are looking at WV, anybody seeing anything that wasn't modeled correctly at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It looks like it could be on WV just a little bit. But still appears to be transfering near the coast with more energy coming in... South of NO OL. WV does look like the trough axis taking more of a neutral look. Edi: Mack everything looks right on Schedule..... for a I95 East storm from SC,NC to Outer Banks. Looks to be still closed off at 500mb, anybody wanna chime in on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 RDU is NW Wake. How is SE Wake looking on the EURO near the JoCo Line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 RDU is NW Wake. How is SE Wake looking on the EURO near the JoCo Line? Zero. A trace just south of Fuquay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Looks to be still closed off at 500mb, anybody wanna chime in on that? Most guidance showed that , it will open back as it heads east before closing off again over eastern Alabama or western Georgia Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 This is the 0 hour of the RAP Model. But so far the system is behaving like models were projecting. Congrats to those who see snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Viva la France! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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