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Feb 7 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland

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Good point. Really GFS is all rain for Raleigh.

 

Notice the soundings. Raleigh. Even a warm nose present above and below 850 700.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2016020612_F24_36.0000N_78.5000W.png

 

Notice the warm nose durring the highest mositure. Close to 0C.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2016020612_F27_36.0000N_78.5000W.png

 

That cools off. But then the moisture moves out. DP temps or Wetbulbs dont support nothing frozen from 925 to surface.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2016020612_F30_36.0000N_78.5000W.png

Just verbatim on those soundings, the full column is at 0 deg or below except in the surface layer....and even there, the wet bulbs temperatures are below freezing except right at the surface where it is barely above...so that's snow or a mix, but not seeing all rain there

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Just verbatim on those soundings, the full column is at 0 deg or below except in the surface layer....and even there, the wet bulbs temperatures are below freezing except right at the surface where it is barely above...so that's snow or a mix, but not seeing all rain there

yea those soundings look good to me.  let me overcome warm BL temps rather than a stout warm nose.

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Updated Avaition forecast from RAH -- we(KJNX) get a participation trophy :)

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT.  A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE FLORIDACOAST THIS EVENING AND THEN TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHTAND SUNDAY.  THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN DRAMATICALLY OFF THE NCCOAST...BRINGING PRECIP AND STRENGTHENING AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDSTO EASTERN NC.    THERE IS STILL AN UNUSUAL AMOUNT OF FORECASTUNCERTAINTY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT IT APPEARS MVFR CEILINGS ANDA CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE GREATEST FROM KMEB/KJNX/KRWI ANDEAST.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE1000FT...MORE IN THE 2000-3000FT RANGE...EXCEPT IN THE HEAVIESTPRECIP.  PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WINDSWILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25KT AND HIGHER TO THE EAST.
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CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOREHEAD CITY...BEAUFORT...NEWPORT...

ATLANTIC BEACH...EMERALD ISLE...KITTY HAWK...NAGS HEAD...MANTEO...

RODANTHE...BUXTON...HATTERAS VILLAGE...OCRACOKE

1252 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST

MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED

A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM

EST MONDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...NORTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE

SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL MAKING TREES MORE

SUSCEPTIBLE TO FALLING. STRONG WINDS WILL BLOW AROUND LOOSE

OBJECTS AND CREATE ADVERSE DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE

VEHICLES.

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If you look at Radar of course precip has broke out across S GA. But off the coast of JAX that cluster of storms is the SLP. If you look at SPC Meso page. Windstreams converage near and the greatest Surface and 700mb Frontogenesis resides along. The is the greatest baroclinic zone. Now just wait for the UL energy. 

 

sfnt.gif?1454783715301

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It looks like it could be on WV just a little bit. But still appears to be transfering near the coast with more energy coming in... South of NO OL.

 

 

WV does look like the trough axis taking more of a neutral look.

 

 

Edi: Mack everything  looks right on Schedule..... for a I95 East storm from SC,NC to Outer Banks.

Looks to be still closed off at 500mb, anybody wanna chime in on that?

500mb.gif?1454782763868

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