No snow for you Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Almost a Rain_Cold special. Still worried about temps though. I've witnessed many 1500ft snowstorms in my life, while holding an umbrella in my hand. Dang. i was hoping for a mild rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The HRRR is a little more juiced up as well for NC fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 15z HRRR looks to have some backside development over E TN. IF this occurs, things could get more interesting for WNC and the eastern Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Dang. i was hoping for a mild rain.I'll raise you cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Almost a Rain_Cold special. Still worried about temps though. I've witnessed many 1500ft snowstorms in my life, while holding an umbrella in my hand. Rates overcome all! Would be a kick in the bricks, to get some moderate moisture back your way and then get rain!? Always , always, cold first, is most important ! I'm ready for clippergeddon on Mon/Tues! I'll get the rain, while y'all score an inch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 15z HRRR looks to have some backside development over E TN. IF this occurs, things could get interesting for WNC and the eastern Piedmont. What is that noise near LA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Temp profiles are borderline at best even for RDU, per the GFS, so don't get too excited. Good point. Really GFS is all rain for Raleigh. Notice the soundings. Raleigh. Even a warm nose present above and below 850 700. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2016020612_F24_36.0000N_78.5000W.png Notice the warm nose durring the highest mositure. Close to 0C. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2016020612_F27_36.0000N_78.5000W.png That cools off. But then the moisture moves out. DP temps or Wetbulbs dont support nothing frozen from 925 to surface. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2016020612_F30_36.0000N_78.5000W.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 almost hrrr time, latest has good precip moving into central nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 almost hrrr time, latest has good precip moving into central nc. There's an experimental 24 hour HRRR on wxbell, it's called HRRRX go check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Good point. Really GFS is all rain for Raleigh. Notice the soundings. Raleigh. Even a warm nose present above and below 850 700. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2016020612_F24_36.0000N_78.5000W.png Notice the warm nose durring the highest mositure. Close to 0C. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2016020612_F27_36.0000N_78.5000W.png That cools off. But then the moisture moves out. DP temps or Wetbulbs dont support nothing frozen from 925 to surface. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2016020612_F30_36.0000N_78.5000W.png I'll take that 10 times out of 10 when we're talking about the lack of cold like we are here. A bigger warm nose around 850 would worry me more than one at surface. Column could cool fast in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I will be pissed if Waycross gets another snow event this year lol. From NWS JAX. THE NAM IS STILL ADVERTISING A POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WILL LEAVE THE GRIDS AS ALL RAIN FOR NOW AND WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TO SEE IF OTHER MODELS COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 There's an experimental 24 hour HRRR on wxbell, it's called HRRRX go check it out. Go on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 If the UL remains closed and begins a negative tilt in the next few hours then we can just throw out every model Naw. Cause sadly it does appear to have opened up on WV. From this To this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 ULL looks to be shrinking on the 500mb maps currently so that would support what the models were showing as of late. If this continues it should be open very soon. Axed by FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'll take that 10 times out of 10 when we're talking about the lack of cold like we are here. A bigger warm nose around 850 would worry me more than one at surface. Column could cool fast in this situation. Thats true as well. It would probably work out if the moisture stays around. But the moisture appears to be in and out via gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Any instability along the Gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Go on....Not quite in range. Will be more useful later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Canadian goes west and like the GFS shows mostly rain for wake county east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Thats true as well. It would probably work out if the moisture stays around. But the moisture appears to be in and out via gfs.Moisture and lots of it is key. I don't think overall low position or track changes, just how much moisture is thrown our way definitely has time to trend well. We'll see but I agree overall, temp profile is poor but much better than I thought it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Good deal. Thanks, Jon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Looks like South Carolina is toast now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 canadian looks good to me, snow from about flo to rdu verbatim. big qpf totals knocking on wake cty doorstep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 canadian looks good to me, snow from about flo to rdu verbatim.Until the Euro shows a decent shift west, is be cautios, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Any instability along the Gulf? Light Stratus rains near Tampa. Thats about it atm. Some convection off of JAX where the surface low is popping up.. But mid level clouds are growing around the big bend of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arandall Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Maybe the trend is our friend for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Maybe the trend is our friend for RDU It has been for a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Light Stratus rains near Tampa. Thats about it atm. Some convection off of JAX where the surface low is popping up.. But mid level clouds are growing around the big bend of FL. Thanks. I think that will help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Another view of our ull in motion as it prepares to round the bend. Bomb coming up off the se coast in what, about 36-48hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Ummm. Radar showing snow in northern AL heading into northern GA. Still cannot see the low, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 precip is starting to rise out of the pan handle http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/anim_serc.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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