ozmaea Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 This is nothing for upstate sc I assume Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Not as strong this run. Moisture still from Columbia to Raleigh and east w/ cold 850's but 2m temps look terrible. It starts cranking around hr 105 but 2m temps are still questionable. Just going verbatim on GFS, it looks like steady precip would get the thermals in order and cool the column to wet snow - 33 at sfc and below freezing aloft. Sounding is at green dot on map (near Greenville, NC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Brick wrote this one in permanent marker so I trust Wake Forest will do quite well. SE Wake on the other hand, welp... Watch it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Just going verbatim on GFS, it looks like steady precip would get the thermals in order and cool the column to wet snow - 33 at sfc and below freezing aloft. Sounding is at green dot on map (near Greenville, NC) Thanks grit! For eastern NC they might have enough precip to get the thermals where they need them but around the RDU area it could be tough. Still time for this to change some. I'm interested but not yet excited...LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The 12z NAVGEM just dropped the BOOOOOM for C NC. Further NW than its already BOOM 06z run. I believe in you, NAVGEM... Isn't the NAVGEM supposed to be a progressive model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Here is the hr 120 panel from the 12z UKMET. It would really be nice to see what happens between hr 96-120 as that is where the most interest is, but it's a bomb, nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Huh, Myrtle beach may get an inch or 2 possibly huh? I took off Sunday night for the super bowl! Let's see if I can kill 2 birds with one stone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 All hail King NAVGEM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 NavGem old nogaps whatever they call it now days is gonna make history when the euro comes out in 40 mins and agrees with it. Seriously the new euro that's getting ready to replace the current one is the one to watch this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Canadian is improved and looks a lot like the GFS...but warmer in far eastern sections / on the coast Unfortunately the 2m temps are too warm for accumulating snow per the Canadian but hopefully this will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Canadian is huge NW trend from 0z run. Euro run will really be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 NavGem old nogaps whatever they call it now days is gonna make history when the euro comes out in 40 mins and agrees with it. Seriously the new euro that's getting ready to replace the current one is the one to watch this afternoon. The NAVGEM also gives the Snowtowns of the East (DC & BOS) a good hit, which makes it believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Unfortunately the 2m temps are too warm for accumulating snow per the Canadian but hopefully this will change. I think given the precip rates involved and temps aloft, i think that is in error. canadian, regardless of it's snow maps, is probably big hit for coastal areas..especially if the heaviest precip is the slightest of degree further northwest. the 12z canadian is really depressing...showing a cutoff upper low going right through the southeast and not a flake or drop of precip with it until it's too far east for us to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 give me warm 2m temps to overcome over a underprogged warm nose ANY day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I think the NAVGEM should remain "Classified" (see pic). It's too dangerous to be released into the hands of us die-hard snow fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Looks to me like a lot of the GFS ensemble members are further west. A couple of major A-bombs mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 You take a lot of crap Brick, reel it in dawg! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Looks to me like a lot of the GFS ensemble members are further west. A couple of major A-bombs mixed in. Agreed. One or two looked like the NAVGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Looks to me like a lot of the GFS ensemble members are further west. A couple of major A-bombs mixed in. Absolutely. (Comparison of the 00z vs. 06z runs) I think the NAVGEM should remain "Classified" (see pic). It's too dangerous to be released into the hands of us die-hard snow fans. You aren't kidding, haha. I really didn't need to see it, myself. The chances of that happening are a fraction of a percent, but what has been seen cannot be unseen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 James, I'm not seeing your GEFS graphic for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 James, I'm not seeing your GEFS graphic for some reason. That should fix it. I forgot to upload it to Tinypic. The NAVGEM is out on WeatherBell now. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro is a little more positive tilt...upstream kicker wave is farther northeast. Trying to get going late....not far off of last run, maybe a little east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I like the 12z GEFS members.. many giving Central SC a chance.. might be a bit warm at 2m, but it's not worrying me so much with dynamic cooling possibilities. Snow maps aren't very good to use in this situation on the edge.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Good Euro run for E SC areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro is a little more positive...upstream kicker wave is farther northeast. Trying to get going late....not far off of last run, maybe a little east It looks like it closed off pretty early, in OK this run. Why is this storm in a general sense not picking up the gulf moisture when it moves east? Is it because the trough is not negative tilt until it's too far east? Models seem pretty clear this is a eastern NC storm if at all, but I'm curious on the mechanism on why this energy isn't pushing overrunning precipitation earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 ^ Realize I left the word 'tilt' off when I said Euro run is a little more positive....should be more 'positive tilt' with the wave...apologies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro a little too far east, but still time to come back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 euro explodes low off coast. Down to 967 at hr 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The Euro really bombs the low compared to the 00z run, though (966 mb compared to 983 mb at hr 120). The precip field is definitely a bit further west and it's slower. The Para Euro will be interesting as it was already significantly further NW compared to the operational last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro a little too far east, but still time to come back west. east is good for now. PGV needs to score one and i don't wanna see too much NW trending out of this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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