burrel2 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'm pretty sure the SC state record for most snow in 24 hrs is when 24 inches of snow fell in Rimini, SC which is located Southeast of Columbia close to Lake Marion from the 1973 storm. According to the NAM Rimini could threaten to break it's own record tomorrow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU2005 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 06z GEFS members are NW as well, the big dogs are now all located over SE NC. Wow. At least 10 of those have at least light snow back to RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'm pretty sure the SC state record for most snow in 24 hrs is set at Rimini, SC which is located Southeast of Columbia close to Lake Marion from the 1973 storm. According to the NAM Rimini could threaten to break it's own record tomorrow..... You are correct about Rimini, SC holding that 24hr snowfall record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 You are correct about Rimini, SC holding that 24hr snowfall record. Talk about a tough forecast... It is possible that no one in the state of SC receives accumulting snowfall. It is also possible that a strip of counties get absolutely buried with feet of snow. I would call it a coin flip right now, leaning towards at least some area getting smoked for several hours on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU2005 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Thru 15 32k nam has plenty of precip in central sc and nc. Any more updates on this run?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Talk about a tough forecast... It is possible that no one in the state of SC receives accumulting snowfall. It is also possible that a strip of counties get absolutely buried with feet of snow. I would call it a coin flip right now, leaning towards at least some area getting smoked for several hours on Sunday. Right!. I think on the verge of a big dog honestly. None of the models where really showing any qpf in TX, LA. They have precip showing on radar.Judging by WV this is just about to be neutral tilted. Also on SPC MESO page it shows 2 closed UL with this.... one over Dallas and 1 over the 4 corners of MO,OK,AR,NE. Very possible a surprise is in store since it already closed off over TX. I though the models might not be handling the UL energy with this too well. Alot of unconsolidated pieces. But def the UL looks stronger that progged. Very Possible this UL could start negative tilting this afternoon over MS,LA http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Looking at the HRRR, it looks pretty spotty with precip to the midlands. I am not sure how accurate it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Looking at the HRRR, it looks pretty spotty with precip to the midlands. I am not sure how accurate it is. Kind of interesting the last couple frames really push the precip shield NW toward RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Looking at the HRRR, it looks pretty spotty with precip to the midlands. I am not sure how accurate it is.Party at Buckeyes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'm truly fascinated by this storm. We could have nothing or a major storm. The local mets here aren't believing in the heavy NAM totals. Saying a lot of it, maybe all of it, will mix with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Right!. I think on the verge of a big dog honestly. None of the models where really showing any qpf in TX, LA. They have precip showing on radar.Judging by WV this is just about to be neutral tilted. Also on SPC MESO page it shows 2 closed UL with this.... one over Dallas and 1 over the 4 corners of MO,OK,AR,NE. Very possible a surprise is in store since it already closed off over TX. I though the models might not be handling the UL energy with this too well. Alot of unconsolidated pieces. But def the UL looks stronger that progged. Very Possible this UL could start negative tilting this afternoon over MS,LA http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19# Models had the UL closing off over TX for around 6 hours and then opening back up. If it doesn't open back up then the track will completely change and I believe more on the board could be in the game for snowfall. UL is also around 50 mile farther N compared to what the 18z and 0z NAM were showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 What would a negative tilt over those areas mean? Stronger system if it stays closed and starts neg tilt sooner. Precip shield would ultimately be further N & W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Stronger system if it stays closed and starts neg tilt sooner. Precip shield would ultimately be further N & W Yeah 18z and 0z NAM had it opening back up between 10am and 11am for a few hours so this will be interesting to see if it is still open by noon or closed like the 6z 12z nam suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Models had the UL closing off over TX for around 6 hours and then opening back up. If it doesn't open back up then the track will completely change and I believe more on the board could be in the game for snowfall. UL is also around 50 mile farther N compared to what the 18z and 0z NAM were showing. Yeah its going to be interesting to watch WV over the coming hours. It could or could not. But those two close UL S/w seem to be coming together via WV. SW energy still flooding into the western side of the UL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 One thing to note about that nam run, it split the strong surface low at around hr 30. The nam often tries to do it in the longer range. This will not happen and the moisture feed should be better through nc I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Coming more north and west. Just wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 GFS getting more precip back to Rdu this run. Eastern Caroline's plenty of qpf. Not sure on temps yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 new gfs is maybe a little more west with where it begins the tilt? yep gfs jumped west gfs came way west with precip but brough the 850 line with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Wow!! Lot more precip thru 30! Big west shift! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Wow!! Lot more precip thru 30! Big west shift! Temperatures in NE SC and SE NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Close, but not there for NC/SC....and then it finds a way to get New England PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 259 AM EST SAT FEB 06 2016 VALID 12Z SAT FEB 06 2016 - 12Z TUE FEB 09 2016 DAYS 1 THROUGH 3... ...NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... TO START OFF...THERE IS QUITE LOW CONFIDENCE IN MANY ASPECTS OF THIS FORECAST. FIRST...AN INTENSIFYING CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFYING/NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH WITH MARGINAL SUPPORT FOR RAIN/MIXED/SNOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME EASTERN GEORGIA. THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS BUT ALSO DEVELOPS THE QPF ON A MORE SOUTHERN AXIS ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH SOME OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW NEAR THE BORDER OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. WE CONSIDER THIS ONLY A REMOTE POSSIBILITY AT THIS POINT BUT IT DOES ADD PAUSE WITH A ONE DAY FORECAST. THE GEFS MEANS ALSO SUGGEST SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BUT THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND MORNING SREFMEANS KEEP NEAR ZERO SNOWFALL. THEREFORE...WE DO NOT FORECAST GREATER THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IN OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST BUT NEED TO WAIT AND SEE HOW OUR PROBABILITIES WORK OUT INCORPORATING A LARGER ENSEMBLE SUITE. EVEN ON DAY 2/SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF EVEN 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO NEW YORK CITY. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT WHILE THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY...IT IS LIKELY DUE TO THE SREF MEMBERS MOSTLY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME CANADIAN AND ECMWF MEMBERS THAT ALSO KEEP SNOWFALL ALONG THE COAST. AT THIS TIME...THOSE PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO BE NO MORE THAN 10 TO MAYBE 30 PERCENT. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNCERTAIN LATER ON DAY 3 AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY INTERACT WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL INFLUENCE HOW THIS SYSTEM AFFECTS THE EASTERN SEABOARD PARTICULARLY ON DAY 3/MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD REGARDING WHETHER THIS STORM SYSTEM REMAINS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GIVE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR IF IT STAYS FARTHER EAST. THE VERDICT IS NOT CLEAR. THE MOST RECENT GEFS/SREF/CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL AVERAGE OUT TO SOME INFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND IN PARTICULAR...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z NAM/00Z CANADIAN RUNS IN SOME DEGREE OF AGREEMENT...WHILE THE 00 GFS/ECMWF AND UKMET ARE BOTH FARTHER EAST WITH MUCH LESS INFLUENCE. IT IS SUSPECTED THAT SUCH DIFFERENCES WILL ALSO PLAY OUT IN HOW THE FOLLOWING DIGGING TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST COAST ON DAY 3 AND LATER OR IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IF THE FIRST STORM REMAINS CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND. THESE FACTORS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. ...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST TO OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS/MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL AMPLIFY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROUGH WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE US DURING MOSTLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SOME PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA ON DAY 2/SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...CREATING POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EVEN WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS THAT WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON DAY 3/MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THERE STILL IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BUT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...THERE IS AN INCREASING LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR SOME POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY/THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. AT PRESENT...THERE IS ONLY A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS WELL AS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS NEAR WEST VIRGINIA...THERE ALSO COULD SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN PORTIONS OF OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA/MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. KOCIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 All rain in SC per this 12Z GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Buies Creek, NC the winner this run. No snow on either NC or SC coast this run. Which really plays into climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 wake cty south and east to wilmington the sweet spot this run per snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Temp profiles are borderline at best even for RDU, per the GFS, so don't get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 If the rates are good enough the temps won't be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 If the rates are good enough the temps won't be a problem. If if and buts were nuts, we'd all have a merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 GFS on Wx Bell has 2 to 4 inches of snow across Wake County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Almost a Rain_Cold special. Still worried about temps though. I've witnessed many 1500ft snowstorms in my life, while holding an umbrella in my hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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