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Feb 7 Winter Storm

Brick Tamland

By Brick Tamland,
in Southeastern States

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

You guys get smoked in CAE.  Wow.  Definitely a snow sounding at hr 24.  BL is no issue.  Looks like maybe light rain and/or sleet to start, but then once you wet bulb and dynamics take over, it goes pretty isothermal and you hammer.

 

CAE, hr 24 (06z NAM):

 

 

 

Looks like a wet snow sounding up here, as well (though we don't get a lot of precip, but it's not nil, either).

 

Sadly, it's all alone with the ARPEGE.  No Euro or GFS support is bad.

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shaggy

shaggy

Posted
Posted

NC:

sdsd2.png

 

I'm on the very northeastern tip of that little tongue of snow in eastern nc. If I'm reading it right its got me at 2-3 inches but more to my southwest. Really not expecting anything with this one so its either gonna bust in my favor and I get surprised or its gonna be SC's turn for a snow and I'm good with that as well.

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

KILM AFD

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...ALL EYES REMAIN ON THE SYSTEM THAT WILL

ALREADY BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA AS THE PERIOD BEINGS.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN GOMEX WILL INDUCE SURFACE

LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE FL COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN

TRACK NORTHEAST...PASSING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP MOISTURE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF

THE PERIOD AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETTING WILL HELP DEEPEN THE LOW

AND PROVIDE DYNAMICS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP FALLING ACROSS

MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FALLING SUN INTO

SUN NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE DROPS WITH RESPECT TO THE TYPE OF PRECIP

EXPECTED DURING THE EVENT.

CURRENTLY ALL BUT THE COLDEST OF THE GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A

RAIN/SNOW EVENT FOR THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR ALL SNOW AS IT ENDS

ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. THIS HOWEVER DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT

DYNAMICAL PROCESSES THAT CAN CONTRIBUTE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF

COOLING AS A LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ICE IN THE

CLOUD AS STRONG UPWARD MOTION WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE

PRESENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN BELOW FREEZING ABOVE

ROUGHLY THE 850MB LEVEL (AGAIN DISCOUNTING THE COLDEST OUTLIER).

GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AND THE SENSITIVITY OF THE P

TYPE FORECAST TO MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE LOWS TRACK DO NOT PLAN TO

ALTER THE INHERITED FORECAST SIGNIFICANTLY. AFTER DISCUSSION WITH

NEIGHBORING OFFICES DECIDED ON A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR INLAND AREAS SUN

MORNING TURNING TO ALL RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER IT MUST AGAIN

BE MENTIONED THAT CONFIDENCE REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW AND CHANGES TO

THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS NO LESS OF A CHALLENGE. BRIEF

PERIOD OF DRYING LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON COMES TO AN END AS

SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE

ALSO HAS PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH

ZONE. COLD AIR WILL AGAIN BE THE ISSUE BUT LATEST GUIDANCE IS

SHOWING TEMPS A BIT COOLER AND THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRONG DYNAMICS.

THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BELOW 850 MB.

SO WHILE THERE IS ARGUABLY A BETTER CHANCE AT GETTING SNOW TO FALL

WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS A LIMITING

FACTOR. HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED CHC POP FOR LATE MON AND MON NIGHT

BUT WHETHER PRECIP ENDS UP RAIN...RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR EVEN ALL SNOW

THE QUANTITY THAT REACHES THE SURFACE WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN A

TRACE FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

KCAE updated recently with the following:

 

 

 

EXAMINATION OF THE THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHTS REVEAL THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
MIXING WITH RAIN OR EVEN TURNING TO ALL SNOW IF PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVY ENOUGH ACCOUNTING FOR DIABATIC COOLING EFFECTS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THIS TO OCCUR LOOKS TO BE AROUND 09Z-15Z.
THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH AREA TO SUPPORT
WINTER PRECIP AND THE NAM IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD
AIR AND BRINGING MUCH MORE MOISTURE AND QPF OVER THE REGION
COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND WAS
CONSIDERED THE OUTLIER...THOUGH IF THAT SOLUTION VERIFIES WE COULD
SEE A WINTER EVENT. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE DATA AND ANALOG
GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IN A WINTER EVENT
WITH IMPACTS OCCURRING. WPC ALSO NOT CARRYING ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER OUR AREA WITH THIS EVENT. WILL CARRY A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ACCUMULATION
AS SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND SOIL/ROAD TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WELL MINIMIZING IMPACTS...UNLESS
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AT A VERY HIGH RATE. SO OVERALL...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL PRECIP TYPE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
IT WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW ENDS
UP TRACKING BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A CONSERVATIVE LOW
IMPACT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

And here comes the 06z GFS

 

- Cuts off at 500mb over East AL, Georgia vs late cutoff off shore on 00z.

- Precip shield further into interior SC.

 

 

- Not gonna get much done but it was a change within just 6 hours of it's last run.  West shift.  More moisture into NC.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

And here comes the 06z GFS

 

- Cuts off at 500mb over East AL, Georgia vs late cutoff off shore on 00z.

- Precip shield further into interior SC.

 

 

- Not gonna get much done but it was a change within just 6 hours of it's last run.  West shift.  More moisture into NC.

 

The trough went negative a little faster and the ULL actually closed off, unlike the 00z run.  Not that far off the 06z NAM, TBH.  We'll see what tomorrow's runs do.  Could be quite interesting for someone (CAE area, perhaps).

 

The 06z runs are really taking any significant coastal snow off the table (for now, anyways) with the NW trend with the surface low and mid-level temperatures.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

The trough went negative a little faster and the ULL actually closed off, unlike the 00z run.  Not that far off the 06z NAM, TBH.  We'll see what tomorrow's runs do.  Could be quite interesting for someone (CAE area, perhaps).

 

The 06z runs are really taking any significant coastal snow off the table (for now, anyways) with the NW trend with the surface low and mid-level temperatures.

There could be only a narrow strip of snow that develops with this storm. It's going to be impossible to know who scores until the event occurs. On one point you want to be under some good returns but another you want to be on the west edge; whereas again if your not under good returns (west edge) you'll probably only get rain. Equal chances of huge bust(nobody gets snow) and a big hit for somebody.  

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Good morning all.  I know it's late in the game to look at ensembles, but I still like to do it to notice any last minute trends.  The 6z GEFS was a major shift north and west into NC. SE Wake (Cold Rain) is getting .5" qpf.  Here are the 0z and 6z for comparison:

 

0z

 

 

And 6z (BOOM)

 

With that shift of precip inland, the temps also increased for coastal areas. It very well could be somebody like CR or someone in the western coastal plains that score a nice hit. 

 

Here's RAH's discussion from last night. I think it's great wording that allows them to back down or ramp up some today.

 

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

MODELS ARE IN BETTER OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE COASTAL STORM THAT IS

EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY SUNDAY OFFSHORE OF THE SC COAST. THE

GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SYSTEM AT THE CURRENT TIME IS FORECAST

TO REMAIN JUST FAR ENOUGH SE OF THE REGION THAT IT WOULD HAVE LITTLE

IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. TRENDS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. WE WILL

START THAT TREND AS WELL WHICH WILL INDICATE EVEN MORE OF A GRADIENT

FROM NIL POP TO LIKELY POP FROM NW TO SE AND ALSO LOWER THE POP

SOMEWHAT ALL AREAS EXCEPT FROM FAY TO GSB AND SE.

PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR A

RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE FOR A NARROW WINDOW ON SUNDAY MORNING IN THE SE

ZONES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EC ENSEMBLE MEANS THAT

SUGGEST A 50/50 CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH VERY VERY LITTLE

POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING WET SNOW. THE WEB BULB FORECASTS SUPPORT

LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 32

IN THE SE... BUT FALL TO 32 OR BELOW ELSEWHERE (28-32).

WE WILL TREND AGAIN TOWARD SOME LIGHT RAIN LIKELY IN THE FAR SE LATE

TONIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RAIN MAY BE MIXED WITH

SOME SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. QPF SHOULD BE 0.2 OR LESS

IN OUR FAR SE... WITH TRACE POSSIBLE TO KSOP TO KRDU TO KRWI ON THE

NW EDGE OF THE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY

QUICKLY LATE SUNDAY.

A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM THE LIKELY... TO CHANCE... TO SLIGHT CHANCE...

TO NIL POP... WILL EXIST FROM KFAY TO KRDU... WITH NIL POP WEST AND

NORTH OF RDU FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN THE

WEST WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN IS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S

WESTERN PIEDMONT... TO LOWER 40S IN THE SE AROUND FAY TO GSB.

&&

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Here's the first observation: current back yard temp is 24.3 degrees. Had a good hard freeze last night that cooled the surface down from the past few days of warmth. Foretasted high today is 50 but the current lows still helps. 

 

**I think areas north and west of Raleigh don't have much of a chance; but I'm always hopeful.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

From CAE(again great wording at this point):

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC521 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016GAZ077-SCZ035-041-071030-BURKE-BARNWELL-BAMBERG-521 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINAAND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMBINING WITH COLDTEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN OR CHANGE TO ABRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW LATE TONIGHT..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMBINING WITH COLDTEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN OR CHANGE TO ABRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.$$
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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Good morning all. I know it's late in the game to look at ensembles, but I still like to do it to notice any last minute trends. The 6z GEFS was a major shift north and west into NC. SE Wake (Cold Rain) is getting .5" qpf. Here are the 0z and 6z for comparison:

0z

RG3a9gL.png

And 6z (BOOM)

Iao3LeR.png

Maybe nothing will happen here. But you can't deny the possibility with the north and west trends.

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DopplerWx

DopplerWx

Posted
Posted

From a purely selfish mode, I'm loving the trend. Having trouble reconciling the soundings with snow. We're close near FAY, but not a true snow look. Is the assumption that heavier precip will pull enough cold down to make the difference?

I think you're in a good spot. Rates will be key but at least the flakes will be huge
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