Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Wow at the Canadian. That's a Burger Boom, I think. I love it, but earlier Jon posted verification scores. The GGEM is at the bottom of the pack. Not that it's not right or anything, just want to temper expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 All the local mets in Charleston area going conservative, as expected. Bill Walsh says rain will mix with wet snow, especially inland, Sunday morning. One of the local models actually showing some snow on side east of Raleigh Sunday. Rob Fowler says it could turn over to a wet snow or wet mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I love it, but earlier Jon posted verification scores. The GGEM is at the bottom of the pack. Not that it's not right or anything, just want to temper expectations. Yeah, very true, but interesting. Gets accumulating snow out this way. RDU to CAE gets a nice hit. Woah, Nelly. Time to see how the other modeling comes in. To be clear, I've only seen the grainy Meteocentre maps so far, so if could be too warm for those areas for all I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Not over until it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Oh Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Oh Canada! Is this trending NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Is this trending NW?Gonna need a lot more than one run of the cmc to call it a trend. Short range models tomorrow will be key and will give us a good idea where the precip shield gets to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Gonna need a lot more than one run of the cmc to call it a trend. Short range models tomorrow will be key and will give us a good idea where the precip shield gets to. Gotta love chasing this stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Gotta love chasing this stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The hope that just once a storm will sneak up on us keeps us coming back. Indeed... we need something like this to come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It will... Mods gonna get us...back to weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The 00z UKMET looks better in that precip now gets past the coastline (barely any precip scraped the coast at 12z), though it's nothing like the Canadian, to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Could it trend north a few clicks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Looking at this synoptically; the cold air just does not look to be there, except for transient marginal situations, for areas south of the mid Atlantic. We need a cold high pressure in place in the vicinity of New York state. Instead, we have the dreaded Great Lakes low. The 4K NAM says this thing starts to get organized in our area where granted rates may allow some areas to get wet snow briefly (but surface temps will be above freezing) and then goes on to maul the coastal mid Atlantic and southern coastal New England. Look at this frame: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It seems every year lately that great lakes low is becoming a staple during winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 On some foreign maps, what do white slashes over precipitation mean? Frozen? Because if so, the freakin' 00z ARPEGE just annihilated us I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 On some foreign maps, what do white slashes over precipitation mean? Frozen? Because if so, the freakin' 00z ARPEGE just annihilated us I think. If you are talking about the Meteociel.fr maps (or another site that uses that color scheme), then that is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 If you are talking about the Meteociel.fr maps (or another site that uses that color scheme), then that is correct. Well, then. Here. You might enjoy this ridiculous model run. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php?ech=27&code=0&mode=2&carte=2 it even hits Macon, GA. I found this alternate source (meteociel) for the ARPEGE earlier and it's faster than the other one I found and Meteocentre. I wish it had total precipitation accumulation though. Looking at the 00z ARPEGE on these poop maps, it looks like the comma just sits on SC/NC and slowly pulls away. If this model verifies, I will always call it "King Frenchie". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Well, then. Here. You might enjoy this ridiculous model run. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php?ech=27&code=0&mode=2&carte=2 it even hits Macon, GA. I found this alternate source (meteociel) for the ARPEGE earlier and it's faster than the other one I found and Meteocentre. I wish it had total precipitation accumulation though. Oh, nice, I did not realize they had that model on there, as well. Yeah, that site usually gets the Canadian and other models out much faster than Meteocentre, even though the maps usually suck. Anyways, looks like the ARPEGE largely held its course. Quite interesting. It's either on to something or going down with the ship. It's definitely been the most consistent model over the last 24-36 hours. I have no idea what its verification scores are like, though. I think someone mentioned earlier that it was a 4d var model, though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Oh, nice, I did not realize they had that model on there, as well. Yeah, that site usually gets the Canadian and other models out much faster than Meteocentre, even though the maps usually suck. Anyways, looks like the ARPEGE largely held its course. Quite interesting. It's either on to something or going down with the ship. It's definitely been the most consistent model over the last 24-36 hours. I have no idea what its verification scores are like, though. I think someone mentioned earlier that it was a 4d var model, though? Yeah what I read is it was 4dVar and also has a lot of input from the ECMWF guys. They work together with data assimilation and all that kind of good stuff. Ryan has the European areas of it on WXBell. I looked around, and it seems kind of hard to find the raw data files in shorter than 24 hour increments for Global. I wonder if he has the same issue, since it's not on his site for North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Okay, the run finished through the event. 00z ARPEGE snows on Columbia, SC from hour 30 until 45. No way. The coast gets rocked for both NC & SC. It hugs the coast and slowly pulls away. (circulation is 75-100 miles off shore or so) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 GEFS ticked a bit east with precip compared to 18z, while the CMC ENS shifted a bit NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 RGEM is a miss, but holy cow... what a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Euro was like 12z I'd say. I'll just stick with this model and be okay. On that note, night. Euro, GFS(lol), basically everything that has good verification scores said no to the Midlands of SC tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The wpc day 2 snowfall possibilities has a10% hatch for 4 inches starting in central eastern NC running up the east coast. Weird map that doesn't seem to fit the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 06z NAM sure is trying to come West. Precipitation further inland, slower. - Precipitation really ramped up versus 0z into interior SC. This looks like it should be a good run for the Midlands. - On the fast maps, looks like two areas of lower pressure. One very close to the coast, one South and further away. - Coast seems very warm for snow this run at 850mb.- The "two low pressures" consolidate into one sprawled out 1008. - Barring temperature problems, just West of Columbia, SC still looking great. Charlotte possibly too! - Charlotte getting much more appreciable precipitation. Looks like 850s cold enough RIGHT to your East. - Precipitation trying to get into North-Central NC. - NE SC getting crushed under massive precipitation, but too warm. Sumter county bulls-eye? - Just West of Columbia, SC is getting rocked this run. - Heavy precipitation just pivoting it looks. Sticking it to the West of Columbia, SC. Still snow in Charlotte, CAE. Guys, this is what we want to see. Slow, crazy. Snow map might be QUITE interesting here soon. King ARPEGE? - Through 36 hours, absolute crush-job for South Carolina, Charlotte lighter, but not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The wpc day 2 snowfall possibilities has a10% hatch for 4 inches starting in central eastern NC running up the east coast. Weird map that doesn't seem to fit the modeling. The SREFs really try to take the storm up the east coast, especially the most recent 03z run. I think those maps are either generated by the SREFs or heavily weighted towards them. Another Boston surprise might be in store. Here is the 24-hr 03z SREF QPF at hr 54, to illustrate this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 What a run. NC maps coming when they finish. SC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 This storm was such a tease for the east coast lol. Congrats to you central folks if the models hold steady one more day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Snow maps coming soon. What a run. You guys get smoked in CAE. Wow. Definitely a snow sounding at hr 24. BL is no issue. Looks like maybe light rain and/or sleet to start, but then once you wet bulb and dynamics take over, it goes pretty isothermal and you hammer. CAE, hr 24 (06z NAM): Looks like a wet snow sounding up here, as well (though we don't get a lot of precip, but it's not nil, either). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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