Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 man, talk about stress! Nothing on one model and planning a short trip to west charleston to ground zero in another. I wonder if mets die soon after retirement from a stress related heart attack similar to police officers This seems like a snow chasers worst nightmare. Nobody has any clue where ground zero will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Well since that run misses many of us, lets hope Stormsfury gets that 17+ inch amount too at his place. He deserves it. If the GFS holds, then I can finally sleep. Hell, I'll take the 8.0" snowfall shown on the clown map. If that map actually verified that would be the KCHS CWA crusher because it seems to only cover that area if responsibility. The NAM is really putting emphasis on that comma-head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Has this situation ever happened like this in the deep south before? This is a very unusual situation and would be a big surprise for the public down here if this comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Hell, I'll take the 8.0" snowfall shown on the clown map. If that map actually verified that would be the KCHS CWA crusher because it seems to only cover that area if responsibility. The NAM is really putting emphasis on that comma-head. I'll be making an unannounced visit to your front yard if it looks to happen. The Hi-Res was warmer at 850, didn't check other temps. The upper level low tracked over you.. but not quite sure if it was before or after the majority of the precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Has this situation ever happened like this in the deep south before? This is a very unusual situation and would be a big surprise for the public down here if this comes to fruition. I guess the good thing is that if it does happen it will happen on a Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Because the models have no idea really where this storm is going.#hard hitting analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 yea 4k nam keeps some hope alive, precip shield much further west. not sure if it has any merit though. tomorrow we will be in the range of the hrrr and rap so it should give us a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I have asked before, are hi res models different logic or just a higher level of detail. It looks like the low res has to smooth out the details and we may not like the finer details of the higher resolution??? Anyway, the crush zone changes with the hi res but there still looks to be one. someone is going to get it with this one, just a matter of where. Places with no snow removal and big live oaks and long leaf pines may have real problems with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Because the models have no idea really where this storm is going. Gotta steal this one Brick!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Has TWC named this storm yet ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 #hard hitting analysis. Waiting for yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 yea 4k nam keeps some hope alive, precip shield much further west. not sure if it has any merit though. tomorrow we will be in the range of the hrrr and rap so it should give us a better idea. A lot further west. We'll just have to wait to see Sunday where it really goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Waiting for yours.I posted mine a few days ago, you just didn't like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Has TWC named this storm yet ?No , and they won't , until it's gonna hit DC or NYC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 No , and they won't , until it's gonna hit DC or NYC! even if it ends up being just a couple of inches I would imagine that would be worthy enough to name this storm given it would be impacting an area that almost never sees snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 I posted mine a few days ago, you just didn't like it. And we have seen the models come further west with the storm. I just think it will end up even further west and north than the models show now when it's all said and done. If am wrong, so be it. Not the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 yea 4k nam keeps some hope alive, precip shield much further west. not sure if it has any merit though. tomorrow we will be in the range of the hrrr and rap so it should give us a better idea. I will go ahead and pull the model hallucination card, there are suplte differences between the NAM and RAP valid 18z tomorrow, 1pm eastern. After the boxing day storm here, when everything lost it, only for the RAP to come back in the home stretch with a phasing of the parcels, yeah, I learned. The WPC model diagnostic disco from that event is buried here somewhere, I do remember verbiage to the effect of "all models appear to be suffering from feedback" and that was inside 24hrs, RAP range. NAM RAP That piece at the base, vortmax SW of the vortmax, RAP has a little separation, NAM is congealed, RAP also has the kicker (yeah, not really, but lets go with it for a moment), in a better position to inject in to the short wave quicker, vortmax in SE OK vs NE TX. Metaphysical assumptions will stop, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAC Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 How similar is this to the coastal storm of 24Dec1989? I was living in Georgetown SC at the time. We received 12 plus inches of snow while areas 15 miles west received less than 6 and areas 30 miles west less than 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 How similar is this to the coastal storm of 24Dec1989? I was living in Georgetown SC at the time. We received 12 plus inches of snow while areas 15 miles west received less than 6 and areas 30 miles west less than 3. A lot of similarity with the exceptions that 1989 had solid arctic air in place and also cropped up in the near term that left forecasters constantly adjusting upwards throughout the Dec 1989 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Good post WeatherNC explained quite a bit of things I had questions about. If you get a chance explaining dynamic cooling would be nice seeing as this system is going to need it. A few thoughts on this...dynamic cooling mainly deals with vertical motion in the atmosphere. When air sinks, it compresses and warms. When air rises, it expands and cools. In general, precipitation comes from the combination of moisture and rising motion (lift). Heavier precipitation comes from more intense rising motion and an air column loaded with moisture. Areas with heavier precipitation associated with intense rising motion can experience an increase in the cooling of the air column. So, in the case of this storm, you could possibly have an area of heavier precipitation that becomes just cold enough for snow, while an area 30 miles away is experiencing lighter precipitation and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 A few thoughts on this...dynamic cooling mainly deals with vertical motion in the atmosphere. When air sinks, it compresses and warms. When air rises, it expands and cools. In general, precipitation comes from the combination of moisture and rising motion (lift). Heavier precipitation comes from more intense rising motion and an air column loaded with moisture. Areas with heavier precipitation associated with intense rising motion can experience and increase in the cooling of the air column. So, in the case of this storm, you could possibly have an area of heavier precipitation that becomes just cold enough for snow, while an area 30 miles away is experiencing lighter precipitation and rain. Thanks for the explanation. You guys have a lot of information on weather and I have learned a lot. Here is to hoping we all get snow from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 gfs identical thru 27. maybe more neg at 30. with precip a little W in nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 gfs snow maps aint pretty for anyone thru 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 gfs snow maps aint pretty for anyone thru 36. Way too warm for coastal SC. The ULL did not close off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Way too warm for coastal SC. what about interior SC and GA ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I know this is probably banter so moderators you can move my post if it is. Weather NC, thanks for adding to my learning experience with your earlier post about negative/neutral tilt. It really helps me learn about further interpreting these weather maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The 00z NAM & 00z GFS sealed the deal for the Midlands of South Carolina for the most part with the model watching. It's worth checking out the radar, current soundings, and short range HRRR/RAP modeling from here on out. While the 00z HI-RES NAM had some mixing for areas of the Midlands, I am not at all excited about that possibility. The French model is interesting and I am pulling for it to verify and surprise all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The 00z Canadian is coming west... Might be warmer, though. We'll see soon enough when the better maps come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Wow at the Canadian. That's a Burger Boom, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Jim Gandy in CAE says no sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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