downeastnc Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I live in between Myrtle beach and Conway. I can verify there's No word of winter weather. Even ole Ed Piatrowski said just a cold rain earlier today. Assuming that's the safest bet until told otherwise Jaydog is all over it.....http://www.wmbfnews.com/weather That said Jaydog ya need to head back up to eastern NC your severe storm coverage is sorely missed...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Local meteorologist here in Charleston says we have a possibility of snow mixing in with the rain on Sunday but no accumulation expected. This is going to be an "uneventful" weather event for us here according to local weather. I'm doing a milk and bread run in the morning just in case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Shall we start an observational/short range model thread soon? 23z RAP has 500mb low cutting off by hour 18 over texas.. 18z NAM was still open at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 How much for frostyland? Jus kiddin!! Good luck to all you Guys and Gals down there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Shall we start an observational/short range model thread soon? 23z RAP has 500mb low cutting off by hour 18 over texas.. 18z NAM was still open at the same time. Also need to keep the Frenchie in the toolbox! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Also need to keep the Frenchie in the toolbox!.....with relish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Also need to keep the Frenchie in the toolbox! It seems to update slow. Maybe I can find another source where it is, I'll check back in if i do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 No it didn't, maybe earlier that evening somewhere but it started as light snow at RDU....there's a -RA at 1750 but it didn't last long RDU 2000-01-24 17:51 -RA RDU 2000-01-24 18:51 M RDU 2000-01-24 19:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-24 20:51 M RDU 2000-01-24 21:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-24 22:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-24 23:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 00:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 01:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 02:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 03:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 04:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 05:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 06:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 07:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 08:51 SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 09:51 SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 10:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 11:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 12:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 13:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 14:04 -SN It definitely started as Rain in N. Raleigh. Western wake saw close to 2 feet. Eastern wake could have cut that total in half, but when it switched to snow, it was glorious. Ended up with 16" at my parents house in N. Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Going to take a couple minutes and cover trough axis's. I know we have some who may not understand when we talk about tilt, and we have many guests stopping by so this seems like a good point to cover the basics. In order to understand troughs you have to focus on the upper levels, you should not look at surface maps which show precipitation and surface pressure to determine what an upper level trough is doing. In the world of weather, it is best to take a top down approach. You will here us refer to H5 a lot, aka 500mb. That is the air about 15,000' above us. 300mb is even higher, about the altitude airplanes fly at, 30K'. Let's use the 22z (Zulu, Greenwich mean time) RAP for this system as an example. One has to locate the 500mb trough axis of the embedded short wave. This comes from experience, if you look at enough H5 maps over time it will get easier. Many of us have been looking at this stuff for 10-15 years, QC started looking at it when he was a baby, Brick still has not looked at it. Shaded areas of vorticity (basically spin, turbulence at that level, here it is 15K'), should be taken in to account but you really need to focus on the isohypses, lines of equal geopotential height. With all this being said, one can orient the base (bottom) of the shortwave trough to the left, when compared to the center-point. It takes time, I know, but after seeing enough of them folks who do not know, who have interest, will get the hang of it. From the graphic below, we can clearly see the trough is positively tilted (22z RAP +18hrs). So lets move on to neutral and negative tilt, which my MS Paint skills have crudely tried to illustrate in a Wilkesboro dud type esque. I will start with this, the sign of a maturing trough (and system in general) is the trough turning from neutral to negative tilt. Neutral tilt is when the axis orientated N-S, as shown above, negative is when the base of the trough is right of center. Depending on where you live in the SE, you want this to occur at a certain point. For us here in Eastern NC it is AL/MS (FL Panhandle), for the MA and NE, it is right around the MS River, or just east. Cutters turn neg well west of the MS River, Apps runners are just west of the MS River. A late turn, like the one we are seeing here, is good for E SC, and results in an OTS (out to sea) track as there is not sufficient upper level forcing to take the LP further up the coast. Many I know already know this, but for some this is a little learning, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Shall we start an observational/short range model thread soon? 23z RAP has 500mb low cutting off by hour 18 over texas.. 18z NAM was still open at the same time. We are going to roll with the super thread here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 ^^ Good post man. One thing that there is also frequent confusion about is what to root for in terms of the thing cutting off more west vs more east. Usually, we tend to pull for a close-off more west, but someone mentioned to other day (may have been you) that we want it to stay open longer, as it may help the axis turn negative sooner. Just a thought. Nice injection of funny too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 ^^ Good post man. One thing that there is also frequent confusion about is what to root for in terms of the thing cutting off more west vs more east. Usually, we tend to pull for a close-off more west, but someone mentioned to other day (may have been you) that we want it to stay open longer, as it may help the axis turn negative sooner. Just a thought. Nice injection of funny too. Open longer, usually a sign of more energy rounding the base, aiding in a sharper turn when it occurs. As opposed to a cutoff where more energy is absorbed in to the center mass, which tends to limit the overall turn. Hope that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 that's a good post by WeatherNC guys. If I had that explanation when I was new, I would have been at least a year if not 2 ahead in looking at 500 millibar maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Open longer, usually a sign of more energy rounding the base, aiding in a sharper turn when it occurs. As opposed to a cutoff where more energy is absorbed in to the center mass, which tends to limit the overall turn. Hope that makes sense. It does. Open and diving is the way to go this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Good post WeatherNC explained quite a bit of things I had questions about. If you get a chance explaining dynamic cooling would be nice seeing as this system is going to need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Thanks for the refresher course, WeatherNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Our favorite weenie model, the French Model, is not backing down. The 18z run... It's a bit further west with the precip shield than the prior run and CLT gets a decent bit of virtual snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Since we're talking about the 2/7 storm in this thread, this just came through out of ILM... from their latest HWO 731 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TONIGHT.NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE SUNDAY...HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE WELL INLAND ON SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Open longer, usually a sign of more energy rounding the base, aiding in a sharper turn when it occurs. As opposed to a cutoff where more energy is absorbed in to the center mass, which tends to limit the overall turn. Hope that makes sense. In this scenario, when would the RDU area want the low to cutoff? I know it's unlikely for us to see much of anything at this point, but one can still hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Our favorite weenie model, the French Model, is not backing down. The 18z run... That is some serious cold in Canada! I guess that is good to have nearby, and could help us in a week or two?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Researching the ARPEGE leads to knowledge that it is 4dVAR.. and a lot of collaboration with the ECMWF people and data. interesting to see how it performs. even back in 1993 it was successful forecasting vs other guidance they were working with.. it's been around for quite the while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 18z AREGE precip; For my columbia friends.. that is between 0.8-1.0 inch of precip. Myrtle beach area almost 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaryB Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Researching the ARPEGE leads to knowledge that it is 4dVAR.. and a lot of collaboration with the ECMWF people and data. interesting to see how it performs. even back in 1993 it was successful forecasting vs other guidance they were working with.. it's been around for quite the while. I just hope you're further along than me. Still trying to figure out the models, but same area as you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 21z SREF mean looks to have backed off slightly. not the worst look...waiting for plumes actually maybe it hasnt'.. its just like.. shaped differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Our favorite weenie model, the French Model, is not backing down. The 18z run... It's a bit further west with the precip shield than the prior run and CLT gets a decent bit of virtual snow. That is mighty close to the coast, imagine that precip shield would extend to the ENE after 48hrs, potential to be the catch phrase coming out of this winter, ARPEGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 KCHS is closely monitoring this scenario and at this time will not hoist up winter storm watches. However, the afternoon AFD was a very good read and well thought out and includes the potential for convective elements causing bursts of quick accumulating wet snow. Temperatures tomorrow and when clouds fill in in this region could also have significant impacts on how much or little things need to cool down the SFC and atmosphere but this is going to be a highly dependant rates and dynamic cooling event. CAE even mentions the s word .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF WERE REASONABLY CLOSE WITH PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAY BE JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW WITH ONLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE ABOVE 0.25 OF AN INCH TO AS HIGH AS 0.60 OF AN INCH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. THE NAM WAS A LITTLE COOLER COMPARED TO THE GFS INDICATING A GREATER CHANCE OF SNOW. SOME SREF MEMBERS INDICATED SNOW. THE CONSENSUS INDICATES LIGHT AMOUNTS AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE FORECASTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL FLOW RESUMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I just don't see this being a big deal. Surface temps way too warm and anything that falls "frozen" will be wet and slushy and melting quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I just don't see this being a big deal. Surface temps way too warm and anything that falls "frozen" will be wet and slushy and melting quickly. Not to mention the fact that temps will be 45-50 Sunday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Not to mention the fact that temps will be 45-50 Sunday afternoon Down here between the Conway/Myrtle beach area highs for Sunday have dropped from low 50s to between 39-43 depending on the source. And that was just from this morning to this evening. Sadly the lows haven't shifted much, sitting between 33-36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Down here between the Conway/Myrtle beach area highs for Sunday have dropped from low 50s to between 39-43 depending on the source. And that was just from this morning to this evening. Sadly the lows haven't shifted much, sitting between 33-36 Don't get to caught up in temps, your high could be at midnight with a thick cloud deck, and your low could be during the heaviest precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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