TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Anyone able to share what the ECMWF Para showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Anyone able to share what the ECMWF Para showed? The 12z run is not out yet. It probably will be out this evening, though it's availability tends to be somewhat erratic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Anyone able to share what the ECMWF Para showed? not out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'll get crucified for it, but the 12z GFS ensemble mean did look eerily similar with the low placement and 500mb cutoff/stack to 1973. I decided to look back at that because of 3 or so SREF members having 18 inches + around here. Which should probably be tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Fishel just showed precip probabilities for sunday... mentioned all rain. did not mention anything frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'll get crucified for it, but the 12z GFS ensemble mean did look eerily similar with the low placement and 500mb cutoff/stack to 1973. I decided to look back at that because of 3 or so SREF members having 18 inches + around here. Which should probably be tossed. There's clearly a chance someone in SC could get 18+ inches from this. We're talking about bombogenesis just off the coast. This event may turn out to be largely a bust, or it could go down in the record books. It will be fascinating to watch it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Fishel just showed precip probabilities for sunday... mentioned all rain. did not mention anything frozen.classic Fish and why I'm not a big fan. Great inside 18 hours but goes downhill from there. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Fishel just showed precip probabilities for sunday... mentioned all rain. did not mention anything frozen. So. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 classic Fish and why I'm not a big fan. Great inside 18 hours but goes downhill from there. TW He is rarely wrong on events like this and one of the best meteorologist in the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 So let me correct the record here...again. Fishel did in fact mention that if precipitation fell in the morning on Sunday, that some flakes might mix in. Nothing substantial, just enough for conversation. And you know what, he's likely to be right. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Fishel just showed precip probabilities for sunday... mentioned all rain. did not mention anything frozen. In fairness, this potential storm barely brushed the WRAL baliwick. Fayetteville appears to be on the fringe currently. It behooves him to be conservative, rather than get the snow hounds up in a lather. He can always adjust tomorrow, but you can't take away snow, once it's been promised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 We are about at the time to use the mesoanalysis page located here and watch for a negative tilt. Along with the HRRR, RAP, this will be fun. If you see the negative tilt start say.. around Alabama, or Western Georgia... watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 He is rarely wrong on events like this and one of the best meteorologist in the country.Glenn Burns, a close 2nd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 So let me correct the record here...again. Fishel did in fact mention that if precipitation fell in the morning on Sunday, that some flakes might mix in. Nothing substantial, just enough for conversation. And you know what, he's likely to be right. Sigh. thanks for clarifying didn't hear that part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 In fairness, this potential storm barely brushed the WRAL baliwick. Fayetteville appears to be on the fringe currently. It behooves him to be conservative, rather than get the snow hounds up in a lather. He can always adjust tomorrow, but you can't take away snow, once it's been promised. No reason to promise. Could easily mention the possibility though. Just seems the logical thing to do. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 No reason to promise. Could easily mention the possibility though. Just seems the logical thing to do. TW. Got it. Sounds like he did mention it. Good by me. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 thanks for clarifying didn't hear that part No worries. And I agree with TW...I wish he'd just mention the possibility. Just for us weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 No worries. And I agree with TW...I wish he'd just mention the possibility. Just for us weenies. He can't. It must have a high degree of probability. His producers have say on things like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 We are about at the time to use the mesoanalysis page located here and watch for a negative tilt. Along with the HRRR, RAP, this will be fun. If you see the negative tilt start say.. around TX, or Western LA... watch out. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I just talked to a contractor friend working in Myrtle Beach, he said local weather has not mentioned anything about winter weather. Said mentioned cloudy and possibly rain showers? He left early this morning to come back here so didn't hear anything today. Is this going to be a surprise for the locals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I live in between Myrtle beach and Conway. I can verify there's No word of winter weather. Even ole Ed Piatrowski said just a cold rain earlier today. Assuming that's the safest bet until told otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaydog Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I just talked to a contractor friend working in Myrtle Beach, he said local weather has not mentioned anything about winter weather. Said mentioned cloudy and possibly rain showers? He left early this morning to come back here so didn't hear anything today. Is this going to be a surprise for the locals? We're talking about it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 We're talking about it here. He just said hadn't heard anything. Was checking as we may be heading down with plows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 There's clearly a chance someone in SC could get 18+ inches from this. We're talking about bombogenesis just off the coast. This event may turn out to be largely a bust, or it could go down in the record books. It will be fascinating to watch it play out.This has heartbreaker written all over it but I've got to admit, if it happens, it will be fun to watch it unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 18z GEFS is pretty similar to 12z. I think it's finally locked in. Time to stick to the short range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 RAH has a HWO out for the eastern 3rd of the CWA. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC334 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016NCZ027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089-062045-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-334 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTSATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN DEEPEN RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATIONWILL SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE SATURDAY AS A MIX OF RAINAND SNOW...BEFORE LIKELY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY SUNDAYAFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THERE IS STILLFAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND RESIDENT OFCENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THELATEST FORECAST UPDATES. An then from the MHX AFD BEST THREAT FOR ANY WINTRY PCPN WOULD BE INLANDWHERE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT DYNAMIC COOLING COULD BE STRONGENOUGH TO PRODUCE A NARROW SWATH OF SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX. Kind of a weird setup, the cold pool associated with the H5 is pretty much what the guidance is banking on for areas to flip. Not often you see Summerville to Florence flirting with a SN sig, while Wilmington to Fayetteville then up here could be just rain. I do not think this is locked in by any stretch as indicated above. This is still a below confidence system with enough uncertainty to keep everyone's interest for the next 24hrs, mine included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looking quickly over the GGEM ensembles on small poop maps, it looks like the low tries to develop in the gulf around Florida on many members. I think.. Edit, the cyclone forecast/ensemble map argue that I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 We're talking about it here. I will gladly forego anything up here to see your area pick up it's seasonal avg x5. My snow battery is pretty full at the moment, granted, it is always nice to see it in ones own backyard, but after what we saw in NoVa a couple weeks ago, I am good to go, it's eastern SC's turn, you guys are past due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 KCHS is closely monitoring this scenario and at this time will not hoist up winter storm watches. However, the afternoon AFD was a very good read and well thought out and includes the potential for convective elements causing bursts of quick accumulating wet snow. Temperatures tomorrow and when clouds fill in in this region could also have significant impacts on how much or little things need to cool down the SFC and atmosphere but this is going to be a highly dependant rates and dynamic cooling event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 If things hold as they are, I would guess they would need to issue advisories or watches by tomorrow morning at the latest right ? I mean if it's a potential big event they don't want people to be caught off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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