griteater Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 GSP SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSEDH5 LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. AT H3...THECORE OF A 135 KTS JET WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THECAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SFC LOWPRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST BETWEEN0Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. BY 0Z MONDAY...THE 12Z GFS INDICATES H7 OMEGAINCREASING TO OVER 150 UBAR/S ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOWCENTER. SIMPLY PUT, THIS ENVIROMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT INEXPLOSIVE OR BOMB CYCLOGENESIS ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOSTREACTIVE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING FROM 1017 MB AT 0Z SUN TO 984MB AT 21Z SUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A VERYSIMILAR RATE OF PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WOULD MEET OR EXCEED THEPRESSURE FALL RATE TO QUALIFY AS A BOMB CYCLONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 18z GFS cuts in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I will say 2000 is similar because of the rapid cyclogenesis and the low location, but the track is completely off (I guess that could trend better...doubtful though) and the temps are horrible. Surface temps were below freezing before cyclogenesis in 2000, I think they're in the mid 40's here. There's a reason only SC gets snow in this situation, right place and right time. We're simply missing the cold for another 2000 repeat in NC. 850's are fine on the NAM, but I'd be worried about WAA if this tracks west more. It's just not cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Woah 18z GFS cut the 5h off at hr 12 over TX/OK. Lets see what happens. Interesting to say the least cause we haven't seen that modeled yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I will say 2000 is similar because of the rapid cyclogenesis and the low location, but the track is completely off (I guess that could trend better...doubtful though) and the temps are horrible. Surface temps were below freezing before cyclogenesis in 2000, I think they're in the mid 40's here. There's a reason only SC gets snow in this situation, right place and right time. We're simply missing the cold for another 2000 repeat in NC. 850's are fine on the NAM, but I'd be worried about WAA if this tracks west more. It's just not cold enough. Didn't January 2000 start out as rain in Raleigh? Or am I remembering it wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I will say 2000 is similar because of the rapid cyclogenesis and the low location, but the track is completely off (I guess that could trend better...doubtful though) and the temps are horrible. Surface temps were below freezing before cyclogenesis in 2000, I think they're in the mid 40's here. There's a reason only SC gets snow in this situation, right place and right time. We're simply missing the cold for another 2000 repeat in NC. 850's are fine on the NAM, but I'd be worried about WAA if this tracks west more. It's just not cold enough. Living in RDU in 2000, didn't the precip start as light rain with temps around 40, transition to sleet, and then heavy snow? I'm almost positive that's what it did at my house, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 that reality has been seen in the real world water vapor loops for a short time......closing off that fast is a new development but clearly the first bit of energy eject ne and left behind the upper low from the north that indeed is close to closing off......i thought it would happen east of texas earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I will say 2000 is similar because of the rapid cyclogenesis and the low location, but the track is completely off (I guess that could trend better...doubtful though) and the temps are horrible. Surface temps were below freezing before cyclogenesis in 2000, I think they're in the mid 40's here. There's a reason only SC gets snow in this situation, right place and right time. We're simply missing the cold for another 2000 repeat in NC. 850's are fine on the NAM, but I'd be worried about WAA if this tracks west more. It's just not cold enough. Yes to the bolded. I don't believe it was below freezing here at CAE when the event started though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 18z GFS coming in slightly deeper and slower than 12z through 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 H5 opens back up at hr 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Didn't January 2000 start out as rain in Raleigh? Or am I remembering it wrong? I thought it was about the track then. It was supposed.to completely miss us and go out to sea. Then less than 12 hours before all that changed. I also think it started out as rain at night before changing to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Didn't January 2000 start out as rain in Raleigh? Or am I remembering it wrong? No it didn't, maybe earlier that evening somewhere but it started as light snow at RDU....there's a -RA at 1750 but it didn't last long RDU 2000-01-24 17:51 -RA RDU 2000-01-24 18:51 M RDU 2000-01-24 19:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-24 20:51 M RDU 2000-01-24 21:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-24 22:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-24 23:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 00:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 01:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 02:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 03:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 04:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 05:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 06:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 07:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 08:51 SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 09:51 SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 10:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 11:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 12:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 13:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 14:04 -SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yes to the bolded. I don't believe it was below freezing here at CAE when the event started though We weren't. I was in school... it was raining but cold the majority of the day... within an hour or two icicles started to form on signs, breezeways.. next thing we knew within an hour of icicles on elevated surfaces heavy amounts of snow poured out of the sky. Had to try early dismissal.. didn't work.. everything went crazy on the roads.. buses crashing and frantic parents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 No it didn't, maybe earlier that evening somewhere but it started as light snow at RDU....there's a -RA at 1750 but it didn't last long RDU 2000-01-24 17:51 -RA RDU 2000-01-24 18:51 M RDU 2000-01-24 19:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-24 20:51 M RDU 2000-01-24 21:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-24 22:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-24 23:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 00:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 01:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 02:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 03:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 04:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 05:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 06:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 07:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 08:51 SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 09:51 SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 10:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 11:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 12:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 13:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 14:04 -SN Ah, okay, that is what I am thinking of. I guess it was the initial light rain. A lot of our big storms start as light rain briefly before going over to snow (sometimes because the BL needs to wet bulb, etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yes to the bolded. I don't believe it was below freezing here at CAE when the event started though It was close, around 34-36...but yeah, NC was below 32 statewide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 No it didn't, maybe earlier that evening somewhere but it started as light snow at RDU....there's a -RA at 1750 but it didn't last long RDU 2000-01-24 17:51 -RA RDU 2000-01-24 18:51 M RDU 2000-01-24 19:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-24 20:51 M RDU 2000-01-24 21:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-24 22:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-24 23:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 00:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 01:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 02:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 03:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 04:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 05:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 06:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 07:51 +SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 08:51 SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 09:51 SN FZFG RDU 2000-01-25 10:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 11:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 12:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 13:51 -SN BR RDU 2000-01-25 14:04 -SN Tough to disagree with, but I'm going to have to. I specifically remember it raining lightly leaving school, and then sleeting for an hour or two (which turned into a solid layer of ice later) before turning to snow. This was in North Raleigh near Falls/Six Forks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 precip a little further w but not much, coastal sc still in the sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Using the GEFS ensembles this go around... but slightly West with precip further inland SC again. but not cold enough on the coast. Florence may do well on snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 2000 started as rain/sleet and quickly went to sleet, then snow. We were dealing with a fresh cold and dry air mass. Evap cooling brought the temp down quickly. This air mass is completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Tough to disagree with, but I'm going to have to. I specifically remember it raining lightly leaving school, and then sleeting for an hour or two (which turned into a solid layer of ice later) before turning to snow. This was in North Raleigh near Falls/Six Forks. 2000 started as rain/sleet and quickly went to sleet, then snow. We were dealing with a fresh cold and dry air mass. Evap cooling brought the temp down quickly. This air mass is completely different. Alright, I probably don't remember I was fairly young at the time (14) so you guys win here. Would imagine we would see a decent duration of sleet on OBS though, strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I was in west Raleigh at the time and it started out as heavy sleet for about an hour then quickly changed to extremely heavy snow with about 4in per hr rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Alright, I probably don't remember I was fairly young at the time (14) so you guys win here. Would imagine we would see a decent duration of sleet on OBS though, strange. I remember the rain drops and sleet pellets hitting the window on the way home from work. Fun times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Back to business, does someone care to elaborate as to the effect warmer than average ocean temps close to shore could have on a system like this? I've looked for a while, and am coming up empty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Didn't January 2000 start out as rain in Raleigh? Or am I remembering it wrong? Living in RDU in 2000, didn't the precip start as light rain with temps around 40, transition to sleet, and then heavy snow? I'm almost positive that's what it did at my house, at least. Yes it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 January 2000 involved two storm systems. The first one dumped a torrent of cold rain and thunderstorms in SC. That first SFC went offshore and stalled when the 2nd piece of vigorous s/w dove down and caused a rapid development and instant occlusion of the storm that night and caused it to drive due north. I went into dry slot in the afternoon when the comma head started producing down here after 830pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 This has to be the only storm in history that bombs to 970mb and heads almost due east away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 This has to be the only storm in history that bombs to 970mb and heads almost due east away from the coast. Or maybe it won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 18Z NAM calling for big hit between 17A and 95 but little on the coast. 4-6" for Moncks Corner, 2-3" for Walterboro, 4-5" Beaufort, 1-2" OGB, with the sweet spot, 8-10" around Claxton/Glennville, GA, 3" out to Statesboro. 2" for Waycross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Comparing where the 0z GFS from last night had the 850mb low cutting off with what the 18z GFS just showed, you can see that its development has expanded around 100 miles closer to the SC coast. Also, the trough orientation is much more neutral/slightly negative on the 18z compared to the 0z. This is why more moisture is being pulled ashore. If the 850mb can close off earlier/go negative earlier.. the 5h will capture it and proceed to bomb out. 0z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 January 2000 involved two storm systems. The first one dumped a torrent of cold rain and thunderstorms in SC. That first SFC went offshore and stalled when the 2nd piece of vigorous s/w dove down and caused a rapid development and instant occlusion of the storm that night and caused it to drive due north. I went into dry slot in the afternoon when the comma head started producing down here after 830pm. That was one of the most beautiful things I have witnessed while living here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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