NCSNOW Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 18z Nam cuts the 5h off at hr 27 over Mississippi. That helps, now to tilt neg there and we would be in bigtime business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Simulated radar at 33: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=033ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_033_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160205+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Oh boy. Neutral cut off over Alabama.. Low popping.. moisture into the Midlands already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Very close to going negative at hour 36. This is going to clobber someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 ATL on the fridge of being in the ballgame per the 18z NAM. Token flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Someone is about to get smoked. Will wait for better maps to post soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Hour 36: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_036_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=sim_radar&fhr=036&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160205+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=385 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Very close to going negative at hour 36. This is going to clobber someone. Keeps going with trend of wanting to slow down and go more toward negative earlier in the progression....Euro and Euro Ensemble didn't budge on that at 12z though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Keeps going with trend of wanting to slow down and go more toward negative earlier in the progression....Euro and Euro Ensemble didn't budge on that at 12z though Yeah Euro/EPS not budging is a concern. Looks like we have another showdown on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Trough goes negative at hr 39. SAV getting hammered with heavy rain/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Hour 36: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_036_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=sim_radar&fhr=036&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160205+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=385 Looks like Lookout want have to drive to chase with that radar look. He can walk about a half mile east of athens and see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Dont trust those plumes. Signed, Someone who has been burned by the plumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 the real world looks as if some energy from the north is getting going near the texas oklahoma panhandle area and it appears it should cut off somewhere not too far east of texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 dom_precip_type per GFS day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 snow for cae @39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 great run precip wise for sc, not gonna do it for rdu im afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 snow for cae @39 Yes sir. Soundings are good.. and I'd venture to say snow even before then... but the real good stuff comes with the negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I just seen that....gotta the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Snow down to JAX at 42. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 coastal sc getting smoked at hr 45! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 NAM gives Charleston 3 inches of liquid in like 12 hours time. If that reaches the ground as snow, lord have mercy. (I believe it would be snow as rates that heavy would reach the ground frozen regardless of boundary layer issues.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looks like there's a bit of a warm nose on the coastal side of 17 in the low country. KCHS is getting potentially good snow though at 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 ATL on the fridge of being in the ballgame per the 18z NAM. Token flakes? bloody hell...so damn close. Might not be cold enough on the back even if it made it...but wow as shawn said the coastal plain would be hammered this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 NAM gives Charleston 3 inches of liquid in like 12 hours time. If that reaches the ground as snow, lord have mercy. (I believe it would be snow as rates that heavy would reach the ground frozen regardless of boundary layer issues.) Sounding had a tiny nose.. I don't think those kind of rates will care. Looks like the coast turns to snow anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 NAM gives Charleston 3 inches of liquid in like 12 hours time. If that reaches the ground as snow, lord have mercy. (I believe it would be snow as rates that heavy would reach the ground frozen regardless of boundary layer issues.) Man, just inland say around North Chas., they got wicked smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 NAM gives Charleston 3 inches of liquid in like 12 hours time. If that reaches the ground as snow, lord have mercy. (I believe it would be snow as rates that heavy would reach the ground frozen regardless of boundary layer issues.) marine layer always screws up downtown chas, up near the airport to summerville near stormsfury would be the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looks like there's a bit of a warm nose on the coastal side of 17 in the low country. KCHS is getting potentially good snow though at 45. yeah it should be noted that along the immediate coast 850s are an issue so the target area right now for heavy snow would be 30 or 40 miles inland and/or who ever gets the back end deformation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
annieB Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Oh boy. 12z ARPEGE: (Lookout, thank you kindly for showing us this model. I had no idea it existed until the last event.) Pardon the ignorance, lurking and learning.... But is the mm shown liquid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 .001 gets to Lancaster, .10 gets to Sumter this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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