No snow for you Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 French model looks east a bit. Boo. Wait, the French are surrendering? Colored me shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Edit, that ARPEGE model run I posted was yesterdays, waiting for total precip for today's 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Considering chasing this storm over the weekend, but not so sure. It obviously has high bust potential with the thermal profiles. I feel confident at least a small area will receive several hours of heavy snow resulting in significant accumulation, but it will be hard to pin down exactly where that will be. I've got a friend who lives in Lake City, SC. That seems like the best bet at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Wait, the French are surrendering? Colored me shocked. Haha we should have known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Considering chasing this storm over the weekend, but not so sure. It obviously has high bust potential with the thermal profiles. I feel confident at least a small area will receive several hours of heavy snow resulting in significant accumulation, but it will be hard to pin down exactly where that will be. I've got a friend who lives in Lake City, SC. That seems like the best bet at this point. I recommend going to Boston. That place is a can't miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 ...SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EARLY SUNDAY... ...COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OF GA/SC... FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE ANOTHER AMPLIFYING SYSTEM WHICH INITIALLY RESIDES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. MODELS DEPICT A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM DOMINATING THE EVOLUTION. THE SPREAD WHICH WAS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DAYS HAS DIMINISHED AS THE SLOWER ECMWF SUITE HAS NUDGED EASTWARD. MOST OF THE UNCERTAINTY NOW RESIDES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE PATTERN OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. A PREPONDERANCE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW MORE THAN ONE SURFACE WAVE AT FIRST BEFORE EVOLVING INTO ONE DOMINATE LOW WHICH ACCELERATES TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE 12Z NAM PLACES MUCH EMPHASIS ON THE MORE WESTERN WAVE WITH AN INTENSITY MUCH DEEPER THAN ANY OTHER SOLUTION. WHILE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES...ITS AGGRESSIVE NATURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE. BY 08/0000Z...MOST MODELS END UP IN THE BALLPARK TO ONE ANOTHER...ALBEIT WITH DIFFERENT FORECAST EVOLUTIONS. THERE IS PRETTY STRONG CLUSTERING WITH THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF BUT CANNOT INCLUDE THE 12Z NAM GIVEN THE EARLIER MENTIONED ISSUES. WPC FAVORS A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 ...SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN U.S.EARLY SUNDAY......COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OF GA/SC...FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWFFORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGEA CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE ANOTHER AMPLIFYING SYSTEMWHICH INITIALLY RESIDES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. MODELS DEPICTA SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM DOMINATINGTHE EVOLUTION. THE SPREAD WHICH WAS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DAYS HASDIMINISHED AS THE SLOWER ECMWF SUITE HAS NUDGED EASTWARD. MOST OFTHE UNCERTAINTY NOW RESIDES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACEPATTERN OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. A PREPONDERANCE OF THEGUIDANCE SHOW MORE THAN ONE SURFACE WAVE AT FIRST BEFORE EVOLVINGINTO ONE DOMINATE LOW WHICH ACCELERATES TOWARD THE WESTERNATLANTIC WATERS. ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE 12Z NAM PLACES MUCHEMPHASIS ON THE MORE WESTERN WAVE WITH AN INTENSITY MUCH DEEPERTHAN ANY OTHER SOLUTION. WHILE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OFPOSSIBILITIES...ITS AGGRESSIVE NATURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE. BY08/0000Z...MOST MODELS END UP IN THE BALLPARK TO ONEANOTHER...ALBEIT WITH DIFFERENT FORECAST EVOLUTIONS. THERE ISPRETTY STRONG CLUSTERING WITH THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF BUT CANNOTINCLUDE THE 12Z NAM GIVEN THE EARLIER MENTIONED ISSUES. WPC FAVORSA BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF. THE 12Z NAM PLACES MUCH EMPHASIS ON THE MORE WESTERN WAVE WITH AN INTENSITY MUCH DEEPER THAN ANY OTHER SOLUTION. WHILE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES...ITS AGGRESSIVE NATURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE. BUT CANNOT INCLUDE THE 12Z NAM GIVEN THE EARLIER MENTIONED ISSUES. Tossed the NAM for those not wanting to read all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 French model looks east a bit. Boo. Looks about the same to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Oh boy. 12z ARPEGE: (Lookout, thank you kindly for showing us this model. I had no idea it existed until the last event.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Considering chasing this storm over the weekend, but not so sure. It obviously has high bust potential with the thermal profiles. I feel confident at least a small area will receive several hours of heavy snow resulting in significant accumulation, but it will be hard to pin down exactly where that will be. I've got a friend who lives in Lake City, SC. That seems like the best bet at this point.you would be better off chasing the flow snow in the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looks about the same to me? Agreed. It appeared an hour or two slower than the 0z, but the precip and track was similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Sounds to me like NWS is not biting on this one much...and not believing the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looks about the same to me? It's close. I think the precip shield into NC was fooling me. It's definitely not as strong as it was at 60hr on the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 you would be better off chasing the flow snow in the mtns. flow snow is cheating... Lol. You're probably right though. Problem with that is I have to come home Sunday evening, looks like the mountains will get there's afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Tim from Weather Channel has posted this GFS Western Trend. Starting to remind me of Phil's loop of the Northeast event/GFS correction. https://twitter.com/TomNiziol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Tim from Weather Channel has posted this GFS Western Trend. Starting to remind me of Phil's loop of the Northeast event/GFS correction. https://twitter.com/TomNiziol Better visualization below. GFS Trends: 12 GEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 SREF mean precip just jumped way west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Whoa! Big jump. Of course, it is the SREF, and we've been burned by the SREF many, many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Wow. The 18z NAM might be a total weenie run, based on the SREFs (given their close relation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Wow. The 18z NAM might be a total weenie run, based on the SREFs. out to 18, lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 there are about 3 members on the SREF plumes that goes crazy and gives many over 15 inches. Throw those out and it makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 My heavens. Here are the Columbia, SC total snow from the 15z SREF plumes... 20 inches one member. 18 two members. 7 one member. 6+ one member. 4.5 one member. Some more lower ones. Mean is 3 inches. I cant zoom in well but it looks like only one member with 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 out to 18, lets see. Call it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The ARW members of the SREFs are the juiced up ones (0.60"). The NMM ones do not get much precip at all back this way (0.03"). I can't remember which set of ensemble members the NAM tends to go with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandonInSC Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 My heavens. Here are the Columbia, SC total snow from the 15z SREF plumes... 20 inches one member. 18 two members. 7 one member. 6+ one member. 4.5 one member. Some more lower ones. Mean is 3 inches. I cant zoom in well but it looks like only one member with 0.00 Hmm, if this event really has legs the nws guys should start mentioning possibilities soon. So far they are not buying it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 eps similar to 00z with the low placement, token flakes for raleigh, sc/nc coast does decent but no blockbuster numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Water temperatures very close to shore remain in the 67-69 degree range. I believe that is much warmer than usual for this time of year. Wondering if that helps the low deepen/hug the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Energy looks stronger and deeper at hr24 on the NAM. Let's see if we can tilt it negative a bit faster this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 18z Nam cuts the 5h off at hr 27 over Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 @33 precip is west in sc compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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