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Feb 7 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland

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Hey WeatherNC

 

Whats your thoughts on the the variance of the models @ h5? For the most part h5 varies among the models with various outcomes. One thing though Ive notice is the UL shows alott unconsoldated energy. But looking at WV alot of NS energy is flooding  into this system. Its still positive trough axis but wouldnt take much for this to go neutral or neg over TX/LA. 

 

What you think about the possibility of this actually having more consolidated energy closing off earlier and staying closed off with the possibly of a pivot point throwing precip further inland? 

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This is about the time last storm that the NAM started leading the way. Everyone was keen to ignore it and then in the "lessons learned" thread people looked back at it. As we're within 48+ hours, wouldn't it be prudent to start laying weight on it and other hi-res short distance models?

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This is about the time last storm that the NAM started leading the way. Everyone was keen to ignore it and then in the "lessons learned" thread people looked back at it. As we're within 48+ hours, wouldn't it be prudent to start laying weight on it and other hi-res short distance models?

 

That was primarily for mixing issues.  The NAM and RGEM nailed that.  I would weigh the Euro/UKMET more heavily for low placement and track.  Right now, only good for coastal sections.

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This is about the time last storm that the NAM started leading the way. Everyone was keen to ignore it and then in the "lessons learned" thread people looked back at it. As we're within 48+ hours, wouldn't it be prudent to start laying weight on it and other hi-res short distance models?

nam did do well, and we are within 48hrs or so.  12z hires nam was a thing of beauty.  need to see if 18z holds serve.

nam4km_ref_seus_17.png

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Frying Pan Tower is the place to be! After reading about that yesterday (thanks to whoever posted that), now I want to go! Richard may have a foot on the helipad after this. Then again, he may have a temp issue 34 miles out to sea. Lol.

I see nothing but dynamics at play here. Get under the banding get a few inches. Outside of that there just isnt a sustainable cold source for the rest of us to the NW. If the track comes NW, so does the 850's.

Good time to water in some pre-emergent though!

yep put out a bunch this week

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Euro doesn't look good, but most of the other models keep trending more and more west. Potential is there for this to be a dud or a big storm. It could go either way. But I think it is favorable seeing most of the models continue the west trend on each run.

 

 

As is the case with every single storm we follow from multiple days out.  So, the interval of convergence is negative infinity to positive infinity, huh?  You don't say.

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Haven't seen the euro temps so I don't know if they support snow along the coast with all the heavy qpf, but if it doesn't, I'd rather see it move west and dump on Columbia than just a heavy cold rain on the coast. Gefs seems to think it's cold enough

Half way through the precip, the 850 0 deg line works off the MBeach coast....it would be a close call with a warm near sfc layer likely

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Mets are showing temps well into the 40s/low 50s on Sunday... curious where the difference in temps are coming from.. 

 

The upper level low track, dynamics.  Heavy precip with a colder column of air aloft would lead to a rapid cool-down.  On November 1st 2014, we went from 40F or even higher in spots, to 31F and heavy snow due to an upper level low.

 

As soon as the upper low moved away ending heavy precipitation from the area, it warmed back up and quickly melted.

 

Edit: I would like to note, that such a dramatic drop of 10F in 45 minutes or less like that example is not at all common, and won't happen around these parts again for a very very long time.  The idea is the same though.

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Based on the cold pool aloft you want to be on the left side of the H5 for the best chance of changing over to snow. For us up here in the northern Coastal Plain, our thermal profile is warmer than SE SC. Still some time, giving the ball to the NAM and RGEM at this point, big 3 ops should not be that different but I would think the higher res mesoscale models will handle the intricacies a little better. Left turn over the FL Panhandle is what we would like up here, guys to our south this is pretty good as is.

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Based on the cold pool aloft you want to be on the left side of the H5 for the best chance of changing over to snow. For us up here in the northern Coastal Plain, our thermal profile is warmer than SE SC. Still some time, giving the ball to the NAM and RGEM at this point, big 3 ops should not be that different but I would think the higher res mesoscale models will handle the intricacies a little better. Left turn over the FL Panhandle is what we would like up here, guys to our south this is pretty good as is.

 

Further inland for Columbia & Charlotte have enough wiggle room to see quite a shift West with the heavier precipitation/low track.. but that would honestly ruin it for the coast.  It's going to be a bit hard to get a snowstorm for those two areas (CLT/CAE) with less than heavy precipitation.  There are a lot of factors in this, and I agree the short range should handle the upper levels better as we approach the event.

 

Keyword.  Should.  lol

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