Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 UKMET not being on board is quite a problem within 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 We'll see if the Doc, closes the coffin or leaves it slightly open for another run!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I don't think areas this far west will have to worry about temps. Precip will be the issue. Now in central and eastern parts will definitely need to get good rates to overcome the BL On the NAM, you're looking at a near 3C wetbulb for MRN at 15z Sunday. That's a tough nut to crack, especially with spotty at best precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yes I think west of Charlotte is plenty cold but does the moisture make it to where the cold is firmly entrenched is the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The 12z NAVGEM is about the same as the last run. The 12z UKMET isn't going to make anyone happy unless you have a boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looks like another big jump NW on the 12z GEFS incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looks like another big jump NW on the 12z GEFS incoming. Yes GEFS mean is coming more in line with it's older runs more precip inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looks like another big jump NW on the 12z GEFS incoming. Stronger surface low (999 me on the mean at hr 54) and further WNW. Both are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 You're gonna need more than light QPF with this. It could be a situation where only the spots with the heaviest precip gets snow. What's up with the nick picking, I can never make a post around here without being singled out. I'm more concerned about precipitation first I'll worry about temps later. Don't mean to be rude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looking like the GGEM OP is just west with the 0.50 line in SC vs the GEFS mean total accumulation. GEFS has 0.50 to about Sumter, 0.25 to Columbia (city), 0.10 west for the rest of Richland county and Lexington, Saluda, etc. Empty for greenville/upstate. 0.01-0.10 for CLT. Someone should post the 60 hour map, nice for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 What's up with the nick picking, I can never make a post around here without being singled out. I'm more concerned about precipitation first I'll worry about temps later. Don't mean to be rude. Where all of us live, cold is the very first ingredient, always. Anyway, i'm just pointing out that it would take a practical hail mary for any of us west of I-77 to see anything measurable from this event. Monday looks like a much better bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 you never know, just read where models just coming out show another big jump wnw with the precip. shield, the trend west continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looking at the members, most are developing the precipitation in the Gulf. What are the odds of this messing with the modeling these days? Isohume? Was 2000 just a totally different scenario and this is not even worth looking at this time? (weenieish?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looks like several of the models are zeroing in on a jackpot area east of Columbia, maybe around the Santee-Cooper area. Hi-res NAM drops over 2 inches of liquid there. Also, as others have said, if you aren't in the "jackpot" area, expect mostly rain. Wouldn't surprise me if Columbia recieves all rain while some area to the 30 miles to their east gets 8 or 10 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looking at the members, most are developing the precipitation in the Gulf. What are the odds of this messing with the modeling these days? Isohume? Was 2000 just a totally different scenario and this is not even worth looking at this time? (weenieish?) Speaking of a more recent storm, how does this compare to the March 2014 storm? That one kind of came out of nowhere (heavy colder/wetter trends in the final 12-36 hours... No WSW until after the storm began) and ended up being a big ice/snow storm here (too warm further S/E). That storm formed in the Gulf, as well, and was an absolute QPF bomb (close to 2" QPF here). I don't have a lot of hope for my area, but this could get interesting for RDU and definitely E NC/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The GEFS mean is screwing the NC/SC coast at 850mb temps. ;/ Not good.. I don't want anyone left out by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looks like several of the models are zeroing in on a jackpot area east of Columbia, maybe around the Santee-Cooper area. Hi-res NAM drops over 2 inches of liquid there. Also, as others have said, if you aren't in the "jackpot" area, expect mostly rain. Wouldn't surprise me if Columbia recieves all rain while some area to the 30 miles to their east gets 8 or 10 inches of snow. I really like NW Horry/Marion County, maybe Bladen County NC. If anyone remembers this storm, it kinds reminds me of that event in 2007 or so where Allendale and west of there in Georgia got 2-3" in quick fashion in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Just an interesting image on the 12z hi res nam. Regular Nam more or less showing the same thing. But this thing looks like a hurricane on simulated radar. If ya didnt know any better almost looks like a TS/Hurricane getting ready to slam into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Just an interesting image on the 12z hi res nam. Regular Nam more or less showing the same thing. But this thing looks like a hurricane on simulated radar. If ya didnt know any better almost looks like a TS/Hurricane getting ready to slam into NC. Webber has been talking about the Para Euro and previous runs.. record territory this time of the year around these latitudes. Equivalent to cat 2. And the Euro/Para is going back to that solution of a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Here is the ensemble mean from the 12z GEFS. 850's are too warm along the coast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I really like NW Horry/Marion County, maybe Bladen County NC. If anyone remembers this storm, it kinds reminds me of that event in 2007 or so where Allendale and west of there in Georgia got 2-3" in quick fashion in November. November of 2006, two days before Thanksgiving. Charleston also got snow out of that, including thunder snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Frying Pan Tower is the place to be! After reading about that yesterday (thanks to whoever posted that), now I want to go! Richard may have a foot on the helipad after this. Then again, he may have a temp issue 34 miles out to sea. Lol. I see nothing but dynamics at play here. Get under the banding get a few inches. Outside of that there just isnt a sustainable cold source for the rest of us to the NW. If the track comes NW, so does the 850's. Good time to water in some pre-emergent though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 November of 2006, two days before Thanksgiving. Charleston also got snow out of that, including thunder snow. Thanks! I was racking my brain trying to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 such a difference vs 24 hours ago: (1989 incoming?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Possible late trend to a Fujiwhara type effect. Maybe a surprise in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Would love to see the west trend continue.... But how far west can it go? Going by upper air pattern and such... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Possible late trend to a Fujiwhara type effect. Maybe a surprise in store. Say what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Possible late trend to a Fujiwhara type effect. Maybe a surprise in store.Care to explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Care to explain? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect When cyclones are in proximity of one other, their centers will begin orbiting cyclonically (counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere)[1] about a point between the two systems due to their cyclonic wind circulations. The two vortices will be attracted to each other, and eventually spiral into the center point and merge. It has not been agreed upon whether this is due to the divergent portion of the wind or vorticity advection.[2] When the two vortices are of unequal size, the larger vortex will tend to dominate the interaction, and the smaller vortex will orbit around it. The effect is named after Sakuhei Fujiwhara, the Japanese meteorologist who initially described it in a 1921 paper about the motion of vortices in water. Interesting read didnt know this existed ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Care to explain?Maybe he's talking about the clipper coming down so quickly behind it, it forces the coastal more west, slingshot like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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