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Feb 7 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland

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I don't think areas this far west will have to worry about temps. Precip will be the issue. Now in central and eastern parts will definitely need to get good rates to overcome the BL

 

On the NAM, you're looking at a near 3C wetbulb for MRN at 15z Sunday. That's a tough nut to crack, especially with spotty at best precip. 

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You're gonna need more than light QPF with this. It could be a situation where only the spots with the heaviest precip gets snow.

What's up with the nick picking, I can never make a post around here without being singled out. I'm more concerned about precipitation first I'll worry about temps later. Don't mean to be rude.

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Looking like the GGEM OP is just west with the 0.50 line in SC vs the GEFS mean total accumulation.  GEFS has 0.50 to about Sumter, 0.25 to Columbia (city), 0.10 west for the rest of Richland county and Lexington, Saluda, etc.  Empty for greenville/upstate.  0.01-0.10 for CLT.

 

Someone should post the 60 hour map, nice for the coast.

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What's up with the nick picking, I can never make a post around here without being singled out. I'm more concerned about precipitation first I'll worry about temps later. Don't mean to be rude.

 

Where all of us live, cold is the very first ingredient, always. 

Anyway, i'm just pointing out that it would take a practical hail mary for any of us west of I-77 to see anything measurable from this event. Monday looks like a much better bet. 

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Looking at the members, most are developing the precipitation in the Gulf.  What are the odds of this messing with the modeling these days?  Isohume?

 

Was 2000 just a totally different scenario and this is not even worth looking at this time?  (weenieish?)  

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Looks like several of the models are zeroing in on a jackpot area east of Columbia, maybe around the Santee-Cooper area.  Hi-res NAM drops over 2 inches of liquid there. 

 

Also, as others have said, if you aren't in the "jackpot" area, expect mostly rain. Wouldn't surprise me if Columbia recieves all rain while some area to the 30 miles to their east gets 8 or 10  inches of snow.

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Looking at the members, most are developing the precipitation in the Gulf. What are the odds of this messing with the modeling these days? Isohume?

Was 2000 just a totally different scenario and this is not even worth looking at this time? (weenieish?)

Speaking of a more recent storm, how does this compare to the March 2014 storm? That one kind of came out of nowhere (heavy colder/wetter trends in the final 12-36 hours... No WSW until after the storm began) and ended up being a big ice/snow storm here (too warm further S/E). That storm formed in the Gulf, as well, and was an absolute QPF bomb (close to 2" QPF here).

I don't have a lot of hope for my area, but this could get interesting for RDU and definitely E NC/SC.

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Looks like several of the models are zeroing in on a jackpot area east of Columbia, maybe around the Santee-Cooper area.  Hi-res NAM drops over 2 inches of liquid there. 

 

Also, as others have said, if you aren't in the "jackpot" area, expect mostly rain. Wouldn't surprise me if Columbia recieves all rain while some area to the 30 miles to their east gets 8 or 10  inches of snow.

 

I really like NW Horry/Marion County, maybe Bladen County NC. If anyone remembers this storm, it kinds reminds me of that event in 2007 or so where Allendale and west of there in Georgia got 2-3" in quick fashion in November. 

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Just an interesting image on the 12z hi res nam. Regular Nam more or less showing the same thing.

 

But this thing looks like a hurricane on simulated radar. If ya didnt know any better almost looks like a TS/Hurricane getting ready to slam into NC.

 

 

 

Webber has been talking about the Para Euro and previous runs.. record territory this time of the year around these latitudes.  Equivalent to cat 2.  And the Euro/Para is going back to that solution of a beast.

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I really like NW Horry/Marion County, maybe Bladen County NC. If anyone remembers this storm, it kinds reminds me of that event in 2007 or so where Allendale and west of there in Georgia got 2-3" in quick fashion in November.

November of 2006, two days before Thanksgiving. Charleston also got snow out of that, including thunder snow.

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Frying Pan Tower is the place to be! After reading about that yesterday (thanks to whoever posted that), now I want to go! Richard may have a foot on the helipad after this. Then again, he may have a temp issue 34 miles out to sea. Lol.

I see nothing but dynamics at play here. Get under the banding get a few inches. Outside of that there just isnt a sustainable cold source for the rest of us to the NW. If the track comes NW, so does the 850's.

Good time to water in some pre-emergent though!

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Care to explain?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect When cyclones are in proximity of one other, their centers will begin orbiting cyclonically (counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere)[1] about a point between the two systems due to their cyclonic wind circulations. The two vortices will be attracted to each other, and eventually spiral into the center point and merge. It has not been agreed upon whether this is due to the divergent portion of the wind or vorticity advection.[2] When the two vortices are of unequal size, the larger vortex will tend to dominate the interaction, and the smaller vortex will orbit around it. The effect is named after Sakuhei Fujiwhara, the Japanese meteorologist who initially described it in a 1921 paper about the motion of vortices in water. Interesting read didnt know this existed ! :) 

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