NCSNOW Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Sunday could be epic or heartbreaking in more ways than one for alot of us in the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 CIPS analog update (for fun), in order: 1. December 2004 E NC special (http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20041226/) 2. February 2010 Deep South V-Day Storm 3. January 2002 Central NC crusher (http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20020102/) 4. January 2011 OBX Crusher Rooting for 3! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I suppose the west/more amplified trends are either the result of the lead shortwave being better sampled and/or the kicker not being well sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 There's been a clear trend in the modeling for the upper wave to slow down and go more negative as it cuts off over Georgia. Does the trend continue or are we about to reach the saturation point of significant adjustments??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I suppose the west/more amplified trends are either the result of the lead shortwave being better sampled and/or the kicker not being well sampled. Everything has been ashore for the last 24-36hrs. Yesterdays 12z were sampled. Pretty well now picking through the finer details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Everything has been ashore for the last 24-36hrs. Yesterdays 12z were sampled. Pretty well now picking through the finer details. Ok, good deal. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 sampling is important but lets not pretend like models nail events down within 48-60hrs. ive had plenty of storms look perfect 48hrs out only to fizzle or give me plain rain. plenty of changes left to come with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 sampling is important but lets not pretend like models nail events down within 48-60hrs. ive had plenty of storms look perfect 48hrs out only to fizzle or give me plain rain. plenty of changes left to come with this one. Boston is getting destroyed today (6-10") and had like 24 hours lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Canadian getting much more moisture into Central SC... warmer. waiting for better maps. Not sure we have a cutoff or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 canadian further west with precip compared to 00z @42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 There's been a clear trend in the modeling for the upper wave to slow down and go more negative as it cuts off over Georgia. Does the trend continue or are we about to reach the saturation point of significant adjustments???brick should be around shortly to answer this question. I think the biggest thing at least on the gfs is the upstream kicker does not drop as far south this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Okay GGEM is not cutting off at 500.. more precip, warmer. 0.5inch + setting up shop well inland to sc. to cae basically. snow looks to be for central sc. even to charlotte! mix for the upstate. precip getting closer to lookout. Remember the crusher in 2000? there is a batch of precip in the gulf. now i guess models are better.. but that messed with the forecast on the ETA then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 NAM soundings dont look horrible at hour 51 as far east as MYR if they can reach the wetbulbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Of course, everything is relative to each and every person's backyard, but I'm liking the Canadian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Okay GGEM is not cutting off at 500.. more precip, warmer. 0.5inch + setting up shop well inland to sc. to cae basically. snow looks to be for central sc. even to charlotte! mix for the upstate. precip getting closer to lookout. Remember the crusher in 2000? there is a batch of precip in the gulf. now i guess models are better.. but that messed with the forecast on the ETA then. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130%3C1617%3AMPOTSS%3E2.0.CO%3B2 here's a really great paper on that for anybody interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 CMC almost puts WNC into play with the precip shield making it back into the upstate right to the NC/SC line. Good trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 12z GGEM: The low doesn't cut off at 500mb.. and some of this precip looks to develop as the low starts to develop.. away from it. Maybe someone else can explain what's happening with the precip development away from the low better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Can't deny that is a big shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Of course, everything is relative to each and every person's backyard, but I'm liking the Canadian! That Precip field looks suspect to me. It seems way to far North and west of the low pressure. I'm rooting for the NW trend too, but that looks off to me unless there is some upper air lift going on over south central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Can't deny that is a big shift west. Happens 99.99999998% of the time with any storm that rides the eastern seaboard. It's not finished coming west either.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 12z GGEM: The low doesn't cut off at 500mb.. and some of this precip looks to develop as the low starts to develop.. away from it. Maybe someone else can explain what's happening with the precip development away from the low better... will it keep trending west is the thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Happens 99.99999998% of the time with any storm that rides the eastern seaboard. It's not finished coming west either.... I agree. I think it could end up further west than the models show, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130%3C1617%3AMPOTSS%3E2.0.CO%3B2 here's a really great paper on that for anybody interested Incipient Precipitation and Latent Heat An area of precipitation developed along a frontal system over southern Alabama and southern Mississippi at around 06Z on January 24, 2000. The area of precipitation expanded and intensified as it moved into the cold airmass north of the front in Georgia by 12Z on January 24. Analysis of surface observations and radar imagery show that this area of precipitation was poorly forecast by the Eta model. Research into this storm indicates that this under forecasted area of precipitation that fell into a cold and somewhat dry airmass across the Deep South had a significant impact in how the models handled the developing storm system. Based on quasi-geostrophic (QG) theory, height rises (falls) occur above (below) a mid-level latent heating maximum, due to changes in the density of the air above and below. This response also creates a low-level maximum in cyclonic potential vorticity (PV), as low-level static stability is increased. The effects of the induced cyclonic PV max are manifest in wave amplification and enhanced rotation around the PV center. The precipitation across the Deep South induced a PV anomaly that enhanced the easterly flow downstream, creating stronger westward moisture advection over the Carolinas from off the Atlantic (Brennan and Lackmann 2005), thereby extending the heavy snowfall further inland. The inability of the models to accurately predict the precipitation across the Deep South was a major reason that the model forecasts of this storm were so inaccurate. The combination of increased moisture advection, enhanced dynamics, and a deep subfreezing column of air (see GSO soundings below), created an environment that was primed for intense winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 NCSNOW, that's the exact part I was talking about. Granted, models are probably much better this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 RGEM still well east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 this storm may track inland a bit before its over, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Happens 99.99999998% of the time with any storm that rides the eastern seaboard. It's not finished coming west either.... +1 Just how far remains to be seen, another 25-50 mile shift NW could possibly give us some light qpf. It definitely has my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 +1 Just how far remains to be seen, another 25-50 mile shift NW could possibly give us some light qpf. It definitely has my attention. You're gonna need more than light QPF with this. It could be a situation where only the spots with the heaviest precip gets snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 RGEM still well east UKMet has sfc low in same spot this run, but is a little weaker....just scrapes the coast with precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 You're gonna need more than light QPF with this. It could be a situation where only the spots with the heaviest precip gets snow. I don't think areas this far west will have to worry about temps. Precip will be the issue. Now in central and eastern parts will definitely need to get good rates to overcome the BL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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