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Feb 7 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland

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There's been a clear trend in the modeling for the upper wave to slow down and go more negative as it cuts off over Georgia. Does the trend continue or are we about to reach the saturation point of significant adjustments???

brick should be around shortly to answer this question. I think the biggest thing at least on the gfs is the upstream kicker does not drop as far south this run.
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Okay GGEM is not cutting off at 500.. more precip, warmer.

 

0.5inch + setting up shop well inland to sc. to cae basically.

 

snow looks to be for central sc. even to charlotte!  mix for the upstate.

 

precip getting closer to lookout.

 

 

Remember the crusher in 2000? there is a batch of precip in the gulf. now i guess models are better.. but that messed with the forecast on the ETA then.

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Okay GGEM is not cutting off at 500.. more precip, warmer.

 

0.5inch + setting up shop well inland to sc. to cae basically.

 

snow looks to be for central sc. even to charlotte!  mix for the upstate.

 

precip getting closer to lookout.

 

 

Remember the crusher in 2000? there is a batch of precip in the gulf. now i guess models are better.. but that messed with the forecast on the ETA then.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130%3C1617%3AMPOTSS%3E2.0.CO%3B2

 

here's a really great paper on that for anybody interested

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Of course, everything is relative to each and every person's backyard, but I'm liking the Canadian!

 

 

4TW2qDd.png

 

 

That Precip field looks suspect to me.  It seems way to far North and west of the low pressure.  I'm rooting for the NW trend too, but that looks off to me unless there is some upper air lift going on over south central NC.

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12z GGEM:

 

The low doesn't cut off at 500mb.. and some of this precip looks to develop as the low starts to develop.. away from it.  Maybe someone else can explain what's happening with the precip development away from the low better... 

gem_asnow_seus_10.png

will it keep trending west is the thing.

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http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130%3C1617%3AMPOTSS%3E2.0.CO%3B2

 

here's a really great paper on that for anybody interested

 

Incipient Precipitation and Latent Heat 

An area of precipitation developed along a frontal system over southern Alabama and southern Mississippi at around 06Z on January 24, 2000. The area of precipitation expanded and intensified as it moved into the cold airmass north of the front in Georgia by 12Z on January 24. Analysis of surface observations and radar imagery show that this area of precipitation was poorly forecast by the Eta model. Research into this storm indicates that this under forecasted area of precipitation that fell into a cold and somewhat dry airmass across the Deep South had a significant impact in how the models handled the developing storm system. 

Based on quasi-geostrophic (QG) theory, height rises (falls) occur above (below) a mid-level latent heating maximum, due to changes in the density of the air above and below. This response also creates a low-level maximum in cyclonic potential vorticity (PV), as low-level static stability is increased. The effects of the induced cyclonic PV max are manifest in wave amplification and enhanced rotation around the PV center. The precipitation across the Deep South induced a PV anomaly that enhanced the easterly flow downstream, creating stronger westward moisture advection over the Carolinas from off the Atlantic (Brennan and Lackmann 2005), thereby extending the heavy snowfall further inland. The inability of the models to accurately predict the precipitation across the Deep South was a major reason that the model forecasts of this storm were so inaccurate. 

The combination of increased moisture advection, enhanced dynamics, and a deep subfreezing column of air (see GSO soundings below), created an environment that was primed for intense winter weather. 

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You're gonna need more than light QPF with this. It could be a situation where only the spots with the heaviest precip gets snow.

I don't think areas this far west will have to worry about temps. Precip will be the issue. Now in central and eastern parts will definitely need to get good rates to overcome the BL

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