Lookout Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 btw, gonna break out that french model again.. the nam is following. It hammers most of the carolinas/southeast georgia the last 2 runs. This is just through hour 60...beyond that more falls over sc and nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 How west do you think it'll be?lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 What's 100 miles between friends? 6z NAM And the 12 NAM Don't you just love how on the second pic if the precip field would have kept it's arc (shape) like on the first pic alot of folks could have got clipped as storm deepens and it moves NE. Only in our world would it hang a 90 degree hard right, unless ofcourse it was a rainstorm moving up the coast on a saturday, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Does anybody have a link for the WPC outlooks and know when they update? I remember on many storms that they would have the precip so far NW than any of the models were showing (taking my backyard out of the good stuff). We would laugh and say that it would never verify. They usually turned out to be right. I'm interested on what they are saying about this storm. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 NWS Columbia latest discussion says it's rain if it even makes it this way. Well to be honest the back end of the precip shield might actually be rain. A lot of this is dynamically driven cooling. Coldest temps in the boundary layer are along or just inland from the coast. Depending on surface temps, A general rule of thumb in a situation like this for me is looking at 925mb temps. And in general that seems to be where the changeover will be. Note the 32/33 degree temps in southeast ga and sc while over central sc it's 40. btw..keep in mind that if precip is not as heavy as the nam is showing then the amount of cooling will be less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'm liking this arpege model.. and the ggem ensembles have been alluding to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 btw, the nam is following the french model. It hammers most of the carolinas/southeast georgia the last 2 runs. This is just through hour 60...beyond that more falls over sc and nc. French model with dual jet setup there off SC coast - somebody pull out the French flag and fly that bad boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 NAVGEM, French, and JMA have all been about this being a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Precip is going to continue to come west and will be colder here. Not worried at all. Care to share any science or data behind this? I like the optimism, but it gets old sometimes when it's solely based on "gut feelings". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 gfs rolling now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 How did the French model do with the last one? Anybody remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 How did the French model do with the last one? Anybody remember? It partied with champagne. heck of a party. Not surprised you don't remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 How did the French model do with the last one? Anybody remember? Lookout knows, but I beleive pretty good. I love french mustard and french weather models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 It partied with champagne. heck of a party. Not surprised you don't remember Lookout knows, but I beleive pretty good. I love french mustard and french weather models Lol! Pass the Coq au Vin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looks like the GFS is slightly deeper by 36 vs 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looks like the GFS is slightly deeper by 36 vs 06z Looks like its starting to tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looks like its starting to tilt This should be west, its slower, deeper, not cutoff yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 gfs west w precip @42, def west @48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 compared to the 6z, gfs is definitely further west with precip at hour 45 west and stronger at hour 51 west and significantly stronger at 54 wow! what a monster storm... another shift like that and central NC is getting blown off the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 cutoff at 45, making the tilt. tilting over central GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Congrats SE NC, NE SC coasts. cutoff travels off savannah it looks. better maps soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 H5 cuts off over GA and begins to go neg tilt at hr 45 on GFS. Good run inbound for Central SC, coastal NC/SC, and the eastern 3rd of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 cutoff at 45, making the tilt. tilting over central GA. This looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 One or two more ticks like the GFS just showed, and we are back to the solution days ago with a ton of people in the game. Which I've seen happen a lot.... nail the system 5-6 days out and then lose it and bring it back closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The surface low is at least 50 miles closer to the coast at hr 54 compared to the 06z run. Trending towards the French Model, dare I say? Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 goodness, gfs was soooo close to a monster. a few more shifts w and it will be a crushjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 One or two more ticks like the GFS just showed, and we are back to the solution days ago with a ton of people in the game. Which I've seen happen a lot.... nail the system 5-6 days out and then lose it and bring it back closer to the event. Sounds like the Christmas 2010 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Close for a NC/SC crush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The surface low is at least 50 miles closer to the coast at hr 54 compared to the 06z run. Trending towards the French Model, dare I say? Haha. just came to post that. Precip to Guilford co? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 CIPS analog update (for fun), in order: 1. December 2004 E NC special (http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20041226/) 2. February 2010 Deep South V-Day Storm 3. January 2002 Central NC crusher (http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20020102/) 4. January 2011 OBX Crusher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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