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Feb 7 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland

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What's 100 miles between friends?

 

6z NAM

ba2fAFs.png

And the 12 NAM

lLlu7Tb.png

 

 

Don't you just love how on the second pic if the precip field would have kept it's arc (shape) like on the first pic alot  of folks could have got clipped as storm deepens and it moves NE. Only in our world would it hang a 90 degree hard right, unless ofcourse it was a rainstorm moving up the coast on a saturday, LOL.

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Does anybody have a link for the WPC outlooks and know when they update?  I remember on many storms that they would have the precip so far NW than any of the models were showing (taking my backyard out of the good stuff). We would laugh and say that it would never verify. They usually turned out to be right.  I'm interested on what they are saying about this storm.  Thanks!

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NWS Columbia latest discussion says it's rain if it even makes it this way.   ;)

Well to be honest the back end of the precip shield might actually be rain. A lot of this is dynamically driven cooling. Coldest temps in the boundary layer are along or just inland from the coast. Depending on surface temps, A general rule of thumb in a situation like this for me is looking at 925mb temps. And in general that seems to be where the changeover will be. Note the 32/33 degree temps in southeast ga and sc while over central sc it's 40.

 

btw..keep in mind that if precip is not as heavy as the nam is showing then the amount of cooling will be less.

 

namUS_925_temp_045.gif

 

namconus_T2m_seus_16.png

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