superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Hmm... 00z EPS is significantly further west with precip and further NW with the low. Gets 0.1" QPF almost back to I-85, which had nil last run. Goes negative a little faster, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The French model came back west at 00z. LOL. It is not every day you see a sub-980 mb low modeled just ESE of Morehead City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 RAH is monitoring for any shift in the guidance and threw the weenies a few wet dendrites just for good measure, eastern third of the CWA. MHX on the other hand, plain jane rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 This storm is going to be further west. We still have two days to go. The models keep shifting it more and more west with time. And it still could end up even further west than the models show up til the storm actually gets here. With all the rain we have had here since fall, I don't recall a system that has missed us to the east since then. No way of knowing until the storm happens, but I have a feeling this is going to be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 4-5 euro ens members have it 50-100 miles off coast and buries pgv to rdu. Haven't seen that with this system ever. Good trends! But... We are only abt half way there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Brick, you need a catchy name for this system. The weather channel sucks at it, I am sure you can do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Brick, you need a catchy name for this system. The weather channel sucks at it, I am sure you can do better. We should name it after the Kardashian kid "North West". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I wouldn't worry yet. I expect it to wash out and then come back on Friday. Good morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Good morning! THA MAN THA LEGEND! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 THA MAN THA LEGEND! Lol only in his own mind. I don't think it's unreasonable for another westward adjustment or two. The primary wave is onshore now, I guess. I wonder when the kicker will be fully sampled? That's probably important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Lol only in his own mind. I don't think it's unreasonable for another westward adjustment or two. The primary wave is onshore now, I guess. I wonder when the kicker will be fully sampled? That's probably important. you keep forecasting like this and you will be up for a "Debardelaben" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 4-5 euro ens members have it 50-100 miles off coast and buries pgv to rdu. Haven't seen that with this system ever. Good trends! But... We are only abt half way there just took a look at the euro ens low clusters on wxbell compared to 12z, sig shift west with them. wish i could post but there are plenty on the western side of guidance with quite a few in a good spot to crush nc/sc. we have seen this story before where models slowly correct as we get within 36-48hrs. need 12z runs today to continue this westward trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 btw the nam this morning was a dream for the sc coast, smokes charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 just took a look at the euro ens low clusters on wxbell compared to 12z, sig shift west with them. wish i could post but there are plenty on the western side of guidance with quite a few in a good spot to crush nc/sc. we have seen this story before where models slowly correct as we get within 36-48hrs. need 12z runs today to continue this westward trend.That's probably the most encouraging sign for me. In my experience the gfs does great 135-120hr time frame and when the storm was in that timeframe the gfs had rdu 7 inches and looked very similar to 4-5 of those ensemble members. But when we lose a storm I notice the gfs takes forever to bring it back and normally the euro jumps back in the boat quicker. Central-eastern nc gotta love those 5 members and it's only 70hrs out. 12z is extremely important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 you keep forecasting like this and you will be up for a "Debardelaben" Wow, somebody else on this board remembers that guy?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 para euro has precip all the way to rdu, jackpot totals 3-5" just w of wilmington and near myrtle beach, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 This is very telling! Here are the last 4 runs of the GEFS: 12z, 18z, 0z, 6z http://i.imgur.com/NfWJT0t.gifv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 It looks like it might be a I 95 SPECIAL least through north Carolina South Carolina but with a few more western shifts the Piedmont folks May have more fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Wow, somebody else on this board remembers that guy?!Remember Adele Arakawa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Remember Adele Arakawa? oh yes, hotness. Wendy D. Bob's daughter and I used run the same circle of friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 This is very telling! Here are the last 4 runs of the GEFS: 12z, 18z, 0z, 6z http://i.imgur.com/NfWJT0t.gifv wow, great find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 oh yes, hotness. Wendy D. Bob's daughter and I used run the same circle of friendsi remember when Greg Fischer was a newbie and bob introduced him... Fun times....Sorry. This should be in bAnter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Brick, you need a catchy name for this system. The weather channel sucks at it, I am sure you can do better. Should be something related to the Panthers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Brick, you need a catchy name for this system. The weather channel sucks at it, I am sure you can do better. Should be something related to the Panthers... Well, I was thinking Carolina Crusher 2: Electric Boogaloo, or Sex Panther. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Time for the nam to serve up some spam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 12z NAM looking good at hr 36 with 5h cut off over AL and the trough is neutral or a hair negative. Should a better run for E NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 12z NAM looking good at hr 36 with 5h cut off over AL and the trough is neutral or a hair negative. Should a better run for E NC. Simulated radar is more expansive westward into south central Ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Someone is getting ready to get Nam 'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Hr 48 massive neg tilt over GA taking place. SC coast getting hammered with rain changing to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Hr 42 vort is stronger and basically negative tilt.... LP 100 miles north of last run precip 100 miles further inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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