Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 at hour 36 the nam looks... dare I say, better? A little bit more digging on the NW side Don't get sucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Its very possible... even though the prog strength of the UL is forecasted to flex back and forth. Still a strong system. There is going to be a very tight baroclinic zone also. Once the UL get close this could turn into a very sign. storm for I95 East from Charleston to Coastal NC and Outer Banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Don't get sucked in. Because it sure is fun extrapolating the NAM, I would say it is going to be west of prev runs as T is stepped. Just judging by the upper level maps compared to the past couple runs, don't hate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Because it sure is fun extrapolating the NAM, I would say it is going to be west of prev runs as T is stepped. Just judging by the upper level maps compared to the past couple runs, don't hate. Haha it's gonna break your heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Because it sure is fun extrapolating the NAM, I would say it is going to be west of prev runs as T is stepped. Just judging by the upper level maps compared to the past couple runs, don't hate. Maybe not, that is hell bent pos over LA, going to be very hard to turn that in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 at hour 60 its definitely west fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Substantial west shift. Well, actually the LOW is in the same spot basically at 60.. but heavier precip closer to the coast. I think.. waiting for better maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Sorry if this is banter, but would a shift west equate to a slower moving stronger storm? Or just more precip inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Sorry if this is banter, but would a shift west equate to a slower moving stronger storm? Or just more precip inland. All things being equal which in the world of weather they are no. A trend west would likely mean a stronger storm, slower, not so much unless the surface low is captured by the upper levels. That happens here just too late for anyone west of the Gulf Stream. I cruised the MA and NYC sub a little bit ago and noticed their threads on the Feb 5th system were just started in the past 24-48hrs, so that kind of popped up on them in the home stretch. Going neg tilt over eastern GA is not going to cut, period. Looking at H5, I am not as optimistic as I was 24hrs ago. That still is a boat load of QPF just offshore and all indications are this is a bomb, too bad we have the clipper right on its heals or this would have amplified quite nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 All things being equal which in the world of weather they are no. A trend west would likely mean a stronger storm, slower, not so much unless the surface low is captured by the upper levels. That happens here just too late for anyone west of the Gulf Stream. I cruised the MA and NYC sub a little bit ago and noticed their threads on the Feb 5th system were just started in the past 24-48hrs, so that kind of popped up on them in the home stretch. Going neg tilt over eastern GA is not going to cut, period. Looking at H5, I am not as optimistic as I was 24hrs ago. That still is a boat load of QPF just offshore and all indications are this is a bomb, too bad we have the clipper right on its heals or this would have amplified quite nicely. The NS is flooded. But then again there is alot of seperation between each which is only making it worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 You know.. the 12z GGEM ensemble members.. had a lot more heavier moisture making it on land... while the 18z GEFS basically have none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 gfs looks west with precip @54-60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yea hour 57 its significantly further west still not great though looks like lumberton cashes in with a whole inch and a half! its also much further west at hour 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 to compare. 00z tonight: 00z last night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Keeps coming further west. And we have two days at least until we know for sure where exactly the storm will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 big changes as it ramps up off the coast. come west more and... 00z tonight: 00z last night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Keeps coming further west. And we have two days at least until we know for sure where exactly the storm will go. Not even that. The engery has been sampled. There is no major nw trend going to happen. CAA is working in all along the EC. Its pretty well locked and loaded. If RAH does get snow it will be very light. This storm IMO has a coastal NC/SC I 95 E special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 canadian just came in west, precip touching eastern part of wake cty. gfs and cmc both with w trends tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Canadian getting precip west of Columbia SC... snow. Someone did say earlier that Florence could get a thumping. 100 mile shift west from what the GGEM said and we have a nice storm down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Canadian at 4AM Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Canadian getting precip west of Columbia SC... snow. Someone did say earlier that Florence could get a thumping. 100 mile shift west from what the GGEM said and we have a nice storm down here. need to see these ticks w continue thru tomorrow's runs. lp just bombs out once its off the coast, so any minor shifts w will result in some big qpf differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Canadian sfc pressure is at 984 well east of Myrtle Beach Sunday aftn with snow still flying in parts of E NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Here's is the frame right before Grit's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 ukmet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Canadian Clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The Canadian almost gets snow back to GSO. Pretty wild. Looks like the NAVGEM came a bit west and goes up and destroys Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The 00z Euro came in NW... Game on for E NC/SC, IMO.The storm clips Boston, too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 yep at hour 60 its shifted west, no doubt about it... a few more shifts? who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Verbatim, Euro snowmap from Weatherbell has a bullseye of 9" near Whiteville, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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