Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 This should be called the Super Bowl storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Here comes the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 3:33 PM, Brick Tamland said: Here comes the GFS!what is it showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 2:51 PM, packfan98 said: Here's where the 12z NAM ended up at 5H. Anyone care to speculate???? On 2/3/2016 at 2:58 PM, FallsLake said: Here's 850 temps: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160203+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model and simulated radar: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=sim_radar&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160203+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Edit: Dew points: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=03&model_init_hh=12&fhour=84¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Rain? Cold chasing moisture. Def gonna have to get its act together and go neg tilt further west. What its showing now aint gonna cut it for a SC snowstorm. Even though its 84 hour nam... I know. Current run of 12z nam 925mb temps way too warm and the blow up RH @ h7 is mainly east of the 0C line & 850 low. 925 temps. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_084_925_temp_ht.gif 850 temp http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif H7 RH http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_084_700_rh_ht.gif But its the 84 hour nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I see a prolonged period of snowshowers for the metro ATL. Lasting from Monday evening through Wednesday morning. Shouldn't add up to much but it will be pretty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 3:34 PM, franklin NCwx said: what is it showing? Wavy lines and color things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 3:36 PM, LithiaWx said: I see a prolonged period of snowshowers for the metro ATL. Lasting from Monday evening through Wednesday morning. Shouldn't add up to much but it will be pretty! I'll take 1-3 inches. It's not much but it's better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 3:37 PM, Cold Rain said: Wavy lines and color things.where is brick with the update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 3:49 PM, franklin NCwx said: where is brick with the update? Nobody's posted any maps at TW yet. Just be patient! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Not as strong this run. Moisture still from Columbia to Raleigh and east w/ cold 850's but 2m temps look terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 GFS definitely slower to move out and a little more tucked into the coast with the low pressure. It's sitting there spinning. Somebody in Eastern NC will cash in with that look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Looks good for coastal NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It starts cranking around hr 105 but 2m temps are still questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Still have the NW trend to look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 CLOWN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Another good run and still good trends. Still have time for it to come a little more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Good hit for eastern NC per 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Not as good as the 00z run last night overall, but better than the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 4:03 PM, Brick Tamland said: Still have the NW trend to look forward to. Seems like seen that trend a few times lately to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 4:04 PM, Brick Tamland said: Another good run and still good trends. Still have time for it to come a little more NW.if anything it should trend east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It looked like it moved south and east from 00z at quick glance, but I may be wrong on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 4:15 PM, frazdaddy said: It looked like it moved south and east from 00z at quick glance, but I may be wrong on that. It is S and E of the 00z run, but N and W of the 06z run. Kind of a wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 4:03 PM, Brick Tamland said: Still have the NW trend to look forward to. Agree, no one wants to be in the bullseye 96hrs out in a marginal temp setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 4:19 PM, WeatherNC said: Agree, no one wants to be in the bullseye 96hrs out in a marginal temp setup.you guys look good for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Extrapolating the 84hr NAM, because that is always a smart thing to do, I see no evidence of a vort shearing off to the north and east like the 0z Canadian showed. The NAM would likely close off over GA based on the neg tilt at H5. That should give at least some merit to the GFS and it's deeper look compared to at least the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 4:26 PM, WeatherNC said: Extrapolating the 84hr NAM, because that is always a smart thing to do, I see no evidence of a vort shearing off to the north and east like the 0z Canadian showed. The NAM would likely close off over GA based on the neg tilt at H5. That should give at least some merit to the GFS and it's deeper look compared to at least the Canadian. I trust your slide rule and colored pencils unquestioningly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 4:44 PM, frazdaddy said: I trust your slide rule and colored pencils unquestioningly. Brick wrote this one in permanent marker so I trust Wake Forest will do quite well. SE Wake on the other hand, welp... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Canadian is improved and looks a lot like the GFS...but warmer in far eastern sections / on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 NAVGEM is holding rock steady! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 UKMet looks similar to GFS and Canadian. Wave looks pretty good. Hard to tell on specifics with limited hr data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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