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Feb 7 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland

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It's really not a bad look at D5. There's enough separation in the northern stream to *maybe* keep us from getting screwed with a Lakes low (like WeatherNC) said.

My guess is that the storm washes out for a day or two and then comes back and trends favorably. Temps? Right on the line. It's not the ideal setup, but it's workable. And in the SE, that's usually the most important thing.

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Quite limited support from the Euro Ens members.  On the flip side, as NCSNOW mentions, the Euro Para was a little better than the regular Euro, and improved from its previous run.  The Euro Para Ens mean actually briefly closes off the 5h wave over Augusta.  Tight call with this one between a light to moderate snow in some places....all the way to an off the coast solution and very light precip in very marginal temps.

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Quite limited support from the Euro Ens members.  On the flip side, as NCSNOW mentions, the Euro Para was a little better than the regular Euro, and improved from its previous run.  The Euro Para Ens mean actually briefly closes off the 5h wave over Augusta.  Tight call with this one between a light to moderate snow in some places....all the way to an off the coast solution and very light precip in very marginal temps.

para euro caught on to our last storm much earlier than the op.  i think we see favorable trends over the next 48-72hrs.

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I've got a bad feeling with this storm for my backyard. With no gulf involvement, this looks like your classic, nary a flurry in Clemson, a dusting in Greenville, 6 inches in Spartanburg, and a foot in Charlotte type storm. I've seen this scenario play out 3 or 4 times throughout my life and it stings every time.

 

Luckily, It is a Saturday night so I will chase if needed.

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I've got a bad feeling with this storm for my backyard. With no gulf involvement, this looks like your classic, nary a flurry in Clemson, a dusting in Greenville, 6 inches in Spartanburg, and a foot in Charlotte type storm. I've seen this scenario play out 3 or 4 times throughout my life and it stings every time.

 

Luckily, It is a Saturday night so I will chase if needed.

I'm not impressed for mby either  :(   Florence to MYB peeps should be a little more interested  :D 

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I'm not impressed for mby either :( Florence to MYB peeps should be a little more interested :D

How often do you hear for a winter storm that Florence to myrtle beach should be interested lol. I caution the ole reliable (sometimes dreadful, depending on what side you're on, north west trend).

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Trending in the right direction overall but needs to keep doing so. Looks like Eastern NC/SC could be in play with this set up. We have not seen a good snow here in awhile.

PGV has probably gotten more snow than anybody outside of the mountains over the last 5 years.

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If things verify and hold up, it's gonna be interesting to see the nam BL and particularly mid level soundings inside 36 hours. This is gonna be another marginal event but most likely rain or snow, no ice. It really sniffed the warm nose out last event. Surface temps not so good.

 

Yeah, it was outright awful with sfc temps but we were CAD aided in the last event. 

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PGV has probably gotten more snow than anybody outside of the mountains over the last 5 years.

 If you are talking about anywhere around Charleston to Jacksonville, NC to Greenville, NC. No this area has not. I was in Fayetteville, NC prior to moving down here a year and a half ago. So many times this area was screwed out of snow because of warm nose or not being cold enough. Fayetteville, NC meanwhile was getting 8 or 9 inches in isolated areas. Can you show me some storms to change my mind. Most of southeastern NC and eastern SC have not seen a good snow in awhile.

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 If you are talking about anywhere around Charleston to Jacksonville, NC to Greenville, NC. No this area has not. I was in Fayetteville, NC prior to moving down here a year and a half ago. So many times this area was screwed out of snow because of warm nose or not being cold enough. Fayetteville, NC meanwhile was getting 8 or 9 inches in isolated areas. Can you show me some storms to change my mind. Most of southeastern NC and eastern SC have not seen a good snow in awhile.

 

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accum.20110110.gif

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accum.20140129.gif

accum.20110110.gif

accum.20101226.gif

 

That is 3 events in 5 years and most of those events were horrible for southeastern NC to eastern SC. I should exclude Greenville, NC because they are northern enough to not get screwed out of a lot of snow events. Almost every one of those storms did trace to nothing in the areas I mentioned. Last good snow I remember in southeastern NC and some of eastern SC was Valentines day like 6 or 7 years ago. I think it was 4 to 5 inches.

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That is 3 events in 5 years and most of those events were horrible for southeastern NC to eastern SC. I should exclude Greenville, NC because they are northern enough to not get screwed out of a lot of snow events. Almost every one of those storms did trace to nothing in the areas I mentioned. Last good snow I remember in southeastern NC and some of eastern SC was Valentines day like 6 or 7 years ago. I think it was 4 to 5 inches.

Just climo reality...

 

Feb_3_E_NC_Climo.png
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Just climo reality...

 

Feb_3_E_NC_Climo.png

 

 

Sure I did not say we are not at climo. I said we have not gotten a GOOD snow in awhile. Not here to argue a point that you proved with the map you provided as well as the other maps. I am in ILM area by the way. Now let us hope new model runs show snow for everyone.

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