Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 GFS is showing the goods. Models are starting to trend in the right direction for this late bloomer. Time to reel it in. Let's go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Brick bringing the magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 NAVGEM has Carolina Crusher 2: Electric Boogaloo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Thank goodness fish sky didn't start this; now we at least have a fighting chance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It's really not a bad look at D5. There's enough separation in the northern stream to *maybe* keep us from getting screwed with a Lakes low (like WeatherNC) said. My guess is that the storm washes out for a day or two and then comes back and trends favorably. Temps? Right on the line. It's not the ideal setup, but it's workable. And in the SE, that's usually the most important thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 6z DGEX...starts showing some of the arctic snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Saw on tw the euro para looks great as well. Has the coastal, artic clipper and another wave digging in the base of the trough Tuess into Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Quite limited support from the Euro Ens members. On the flip side, as NCSNOW mentions, the Euro Para was a little better than the regular Euro, and improved from its previous run. The Euro Para Ens mean actually briefly closes off the 5h wave over Augusta. Tight call with this one between a light to moderate snow in some places....all the way to an off the coast solution and very light precip in very marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Quite limited support from the Euro Ens members. On the flip side, as NCSNOW mentions, the Euro Para was a little better than the regular Euro, and improved from its previous run. The Euro Para Ens mean actually briefly closes off the 5h wave over Augusta. Tight call with this one between a light to moderate snow in some places....all the way to an off the coast solution and very light precip in very marginal temps. para euro caught on to our last storm much earlier than the op. i think we see favorable trends over the next 48-72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I've got a bad feeling with this storm for my backyard. With no gulf involvement, this looks like your classic, nary a flurry in Clemson, a dusting in Greenville, 6 inches in Spartanburg, and a foot in Charlotte type storm. I've seen this scenario play out 3 or 4 times throughout my life and it stings every time. Luckily, It is a Saturday night so I will chase if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Trending in the right direction overall but needs to keep doing so. Looks like Eastern NC/SC could be in play with this set up. We have not seen a good snow here in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I've got a bad feeling with this storm for my backyard. With no gulf involvement, this looks like your classic, nary a flurry in Clemson, a dusting in Greenville, 6 inches in Spartanburg, and a foot in Charlotte type storm. I've seen this scenario play out 3 or 4 times throughout my life and it stings every time. Luckily, It is a Saturday night so I will chase if needed. I'm not impressed for mby either Florence to MYB peeps should be a little more interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I'm not impressed for mby either Florence to MYB peeps should be a little more interested How often do you hear for a winter storm that Florence to myrtle beach should be interested lol. I caution the ole reliable (sometimes dreadful, depending on what side you're on, north west trend). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I'm not impressed for mby either Florence to MYB peeps should be a little more interested At this point, I would like my chances more in Columbia than Clemson. I would be cautiously optimistic if I were you. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Trending in the right direction overall but needs to keep doing so. Looks like Eastern NC/SC could be in play with this set up. We have not seen a good snow here in awhile. PGV has probably gotten more snow than anybody outside of the mountains over the last 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 PGV has probably gotten more snow than anybody outside of the mountains over the last 5 years. I dont even want to start on how much snow I'm missing from storm predictions even 6 hours out. ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 If things verify and hold up, it's gonna be interesting to see the nam BL and particularly mid level soundings inside 36 hours. This is gonna be another marginal event but most likely rain or snow, no ice. It really sniffed the warm nose out last event. Surface temps not so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 If things verify and hold up, it's gonna be interesting to see the nam BL and particularly mid level soundings inside 36 hours. This is gonna be another marginal event but most likely rain or snow, no ice. It really sniffed the warm nose out last event. Surface temps not so good. Yeah, it was outright awful with sfc temps but we were CAD aided in the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 PGV has probably gotten more snow than anybody outside of the mountains over the last 5 years. If you are talking about anywhere around Charleston to Jacksonville, NC to Greenville, NC. No this area has not. I was in Fayetteville, NC prior to moving down here a year and a half ago. So many times this area was screwed out of snow because of warm nose or not being cold enough. Fayetteville, NC meanwhile was getting 8 or 9 inches in isolated areas. Can you show me some storms to change my mind. Most of southeastern NC and eastern SC have not seen a good snow in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 If you are talking about anywhere around Charleston to Jacksonville, NC to Greenville, NC. No this area has not. I was in Fayetteville, NC prior to moving down here a year and a half ago. So many times this area was screwed out of snow because of warm nose or not being cold enough. Fayetteville, NC meanwhile was getting 8 or 9 inches in isolated areas. Can you show me some storms to change my mind. Most of southeastern NC and eastern SC have not seen a good snow in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 That is 3 events in 5 years and most of those events were horrible for southeastern NC to eastern SC. I should exclude Greenville, NC because they are northern enough to not get screwed out of a lot of snow events. Almost every one of those storms did trace to nothing in the areas I mentioned. Last good snow I remember in southeastern NC and some of eastern SC was Valentines day like 6 or 7 years ago. I think it was 4 to 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 SFC reflection on the 6z para GFS looks about the same as the 6z GFS or at least in the noise range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Some how I knew those maps were coming out. Well done gentlemen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 That is 3 events in 5 years and most of those events were horrible for southeastern NC to eastern SC. I should exclude Greenville, NC because they are northern enough to not get screwed out of a lot of snow events. Almost every one of those storms did trace to nothing in the areas I mentioned. Last good snow I remember in southeastern NC and some of eastern SC was Valentines day like 6 or 7 years ago. I think it was 4 to 5 inches. Just climo reality... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Just climo reality... Sure I did not say we are not at climo. I said we have not gotten a GOOD snow in awhile. Not here to argue a point that you proved with the map you provided as well as the other maps. I am in ILM area by the way. Now let us hope new model runs show snow for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Here's where the 12z NAM ended up at 5H. Anyone care to speculate???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Here's where the 12z NAM ended up at 5H. Anyone care to speculate???? Well it's going to need to be stronger and more neutral to neg tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Well it's going to need to be stronger and more neutral to neg tilt I thought it looked slightly more neutral than the 6z gfs, but probably not enough to turn the corner. We will see if we can get a favorable trend in the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Here's where the 12z NAM ended up at 5H. Anyone care to speculate???? Here's 850 temps: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160203+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model and simulated radar: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=sim_radar&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160203+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Edit: Dew points: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=03&model_init_hh=12&fhour=84¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.