CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 This warming failed to dissolve the vortex which is what everyone hoped, and it comes right back to the pole. The -AO has its roots from tropical Pacific origins which forced a troposphere response onto the strat for the time being, but this wasn't a classic long lasting SSW that completely changed the circulation from top down. We get these warming responses from the troposphere which is natural in winter and in Nino. Nino's have a base state -AO many times as well. But all the talk of how big SSW would cause super blocking IMO never materialized. This seems to me a result of good tropical forcing onto a weakening signature of Nino atmospheric response. I do agree that having the strat warmer and the PV displaces at times certainly helps, but IMO that is not driving the bus, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Are we talking about the past or the future. I said winter has broken Ninoheater and you talk about the past. Good stuff Scott. Didn't know it was April I said the end of Feb and beginning of Mar look good. But, storm track to be determined and with hints of ridging off the coast...it has yet to be seen how we do. You need to be more objective. Much of winter is torched and screwed for a good chunk of the region already. We are fortunately enough to be in a decent pattern. We warm up next week, before cooling down at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 back in the old days winsted used to always do a little better on average...i hope we are seeing that trend again Yea, I sure hope so, with today's 2, I'm just shy of 20" ytd...last year I ended close to 100...gonna need a lot of help to just break climo here, these nickle and dimers aren't gonna do it, but I guess they all can't be awesome winters.. My all time low for this area is 27" in like 32-33, so that seems reachable... By the way, looks like they snow is winding down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 We will need to see a big final month to 6 weeks over the interior and CNE/NNE for much of the region to have a better winter than '97-'98...we can already rule out some of the really bad places like where PF is....they aren't going to have a winter as snowy as that year. We'll see how cold the final month is too. 1998 finished with a wimper, so this year finishing strong would help it catch up. Anyways, this is all off topic for this thread. I'm hoping that this is this year's version of "It ain't happening James." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I said the end of Feb and beginning of Mar look good. But, storm track to be determined and with hints of ridging off the coast...it has yet to be seen how we do. You need to be more objective. Much of winter is torched and screwed for a good chunk of the region already. We are fortunately enough to be in a decent pattern. We warm up next week, before cooling down at the end of the month. objective? I said once again, winter has broken #ninoheater. Nothing more. enjoy the below zero cold. 15 inches this week and more on the way. Talk about getting panties in a bunch over a simple statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 This warming failed to dissolve the vortex which is what everyone hoped, and it comes right back to the pole. The -AO has its roots from tropical Pacific origins which forced a troposphere response onto the strat for the time being, but this wasn't a classic long lasting SSW that completely changed the circulation from top down. We get these warming responses from the troposphere which is natural in winter and in Nino. Nino's have a base state -AO many times as well. But all the talk of how big SSW would cause super blocking IMO never materialized. This seems to me a result of good tropical forcing onto a weakening signature of Nino atmospheric response. I do agree that having the strat warmer and the PV displaces at times certainly helps, but IMO that is not driving the bus, The vortex will be significantly weaker and re-position itself in a location that is much more favorable for EPO/AO blocking than we saw the first half of the winter. We may not see severe blocking, but that isn't necessary at least in the US for colder than normal weather. The tropical forcing is a factor, but there is a near equal frequency of SSW events in La Nina's and El Ninos. Actually, La Nina's are slightly favored over Nino's. I'm not crazy about the term "drive the bus" as I think there are many important factors, and it's difficult to isolate causation. Many of the Nino winters with -AO in the second half featured favorable forcing and a perturbed vortex in the stratosphere. Both contribute. If we had the vortex in the state we experienced in December, I think the AO would probably be consistently strongly positive right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Better than '97-'98 on the coast and a chunk of CT/RI....easily worse everywhere else so far. We'll see how the next month plays out though...lot of time left. '98 was pretty pathetic after mid-January, so we'll be catching up. This. Very accurate post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 Bruce Springsteen Really did bring the snow haha. Boston on friday, Albany on monday and hartford today. I tried to tell you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 For all of New England or just your backyard? Put down the birthday beer. This is a borderline record warmest all time winter with no SSW or -NAO. You are going to have many areas come close to or possibly break all time low snow in New England. Coastal areas are doing much better. Grossly premature statement. Surprised coming from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 This. Very accurate post. this month has zero resemblance to Feb 98 at hemispheric atmospheric setup, I mean zero. Just because PF hasn't had snow doesn't mean you can compare to 98. Using snow fall as a metric is just silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 objective? I said once again, winter has broken #ninoheater. Nothing more. enjoy the below zero cold. 15 inches this week and more on the way. Talk about getting panties in a bunch over a simple statement. I think that's what you did. Glad it broke for your backyard. Have a good B-Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Grossly premature statement. Surprised coming from you. I don;t think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I don;t think so. Dude, we are like 60% of the way through. Sorry, you're being silly....period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Grossly premature statement. Surprised coming from you. I am not, Meh Meh Meh lol. Voodoo remember. Lol Voodoo is bringing near record breaking cold this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Dude, we are like 60% of the way through. Sorry, you're being silly....period. Look at the numbers for other areas. I am not saying here. I like my guess for BOS happening, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Look at the numbers for other areas. I am not saying here. I like my guess for BOS happening, I know what you mean. You do realize that a lot of NNE can get crushed into April, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Winter has been terrible so far, but saying it will probably end up near record low snowfall in most of NE is an absurd thing to say in the first half of Feb. On another note did you see the para and Operational? Perhaps a huge dent in that near record low snow in a hurry. Its Feb 10th. NNE can catch up in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On another note did you see the para and Operational? Perhaps a huge dent in that near record low snow in a hurry. Its Feb 10th. NNE can catch up in a hurry. Completely agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Bruce Springsteen Really did bring the snow haha. Boston on friday, Albany on monday and hartford today. Summer's sweet and she brings me waterBut give me Winter, that old icy whore While summer lies meek and follows orders Winter cries "me", and pulls me through her door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On another note did you see the para and Operational? Perhaps a huge dent in that near record low snow in a hurry. Its Feb 10th. NNE can catch up in a hurry. How about SNE totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Snow really picking up massive flakes should get 3 or 4 easy today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I know what you mean. You do realize that a lot of NNE can get crushed into April, right? Yes. But look at the numbers. Even a snowy period will take a lot of work to help. I also said near..not every station getting record low snow. I'm well aware how it can be snowy. BOS so far is doing well and I like my fun guess at 35-45. Mar is up in the air from what I seen, beyond 3/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 How about SNE totals? op gave you 8 para 4, Para is close to a bomb, warm though, Op nails you on Clipper Miller b, very close to much more Westfield Mass and North Adams are in the 2 foot ten day totals on the fantasy range Op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Snow really picking up massive flakes should get 3 or 4 easy today Days and days of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Picking up again with the sun gone 29.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Is NOAA down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Look at the numbers for other areas. I am not saying here. I like my guess for BOS happening, Yeah... this winter has been the worst I can remember in NNE. Ski areas are just getting destroyed with lack of snow. It's pretty hideous. Thankfully we've had about 7 days of fun and a nice Arctic shot before the torch hounds return. All in all a pretty exceptionally warm winter across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Would love to lock that in now looks great op gave you 8 para 4, Para is close to a bomb, warm though, Op nails you on Clipper Miller b, very close to much more Westfield Mass and North Adams are in the 2 foot ten day totals on the fantasy range Op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Wife just called said they're doing early dismissals with big fat flakes flying back home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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