dendrite Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Yes a tick, but noise level. It had been pretty consistent. Compare the last 5 runs, no west trend but pretty steady.It's still the NAM. If that southern streamer was the only player on the field maybe I'd give it more confidence like the bomb 2 weeks ago...but the following digging trough starts to have an influence on it later on in the run. Heck, maybe it'll trend closer, but it's still the NAM. Let's not forget that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The nam shows exactly how you get 36-48 hours+ of snow . It's perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'm not throwing aside a modest event for eastern areas on Monday. We have a large pressure gradient between the 1037mg high to the north 980mb low to our south. There a very large fetch directed into New England with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 You look at the long wave pattern and the pig ridge in the west and drool until you see the surface maps, looks like the wave spacing issues and deconstructive interference but yes, if these aren't resolveable we take days of wintry weather and wait for week 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It's still the NAM. If that southern streamer was the only player on the field maybe I'd give it more confidence like the bomb 2 weeks ago...but the following digging trough starts to have an influence on it later on in the run. Heck, maybe it'll trend closer, but it's still the NAM. Let's not forget that. The southern streamer will need to make the jump NW today. Otherwise, it's a light event off the Cape at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Waiting to see 4k nam for 12z. Really think the cape could see a foot plus w potential blizzard conditions. Gotta have the amped upper low that sets the stage for a more tucked low and the giant circulation and ENE flow and boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Sorry you don't like the outcome.Where did I say I didn't like it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Seriously, people should look at the 850mb temp charts. Too much obsession with SLP numbers and the high amplitude trof. We're missing a key ingredient that is usually associated with those first two things creating monster storms. the monster storm idea is gone, expect maybe far se zones for monday. rest of us, we just looking to remain with the decent signal to mood snow us to several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Seriously, people should look at the 850mb temp charts. Too much obsession with SLP numbers and the high amplitude trof. We're missing a key ingredient that is usually associated with those first two things creating monster storms. You seem to be the only one talking about monster storms impacting us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Where did I say I didn't like it?That wasn't sarcasm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 That wasn't sarcasm?Well obviously everyone would like a bigger event. I'll take the wintry appeal over fair skies. Kevin does have a weird obsession for 3-day strung out light events that add up to 3" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Well obviously everyone would like a bigger event. I'll take the wintry appeal over fair skies. Kevin does have a weird obsession for 3-day strung out light events that add up to 3" though.I didn't realize that. I thought he was just taking what comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 For Albany? Agreed. Still wouldn't sleep on the coastal the farther southeast you are. Of course not if you live in SEMA. It's very possible they could get brushed by a feeder band, which could bring potentially several tenths of QPF. But the low itself will likely remain far offshore. So a big hit is unlikely. You gotta recognize which threats could make big guidance shifts, and which have less room to evolve. I'm not interpreting models based on where I live. I was optimistic about yesterday's snow even before it was modeled to scape the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 There's no big storm. Get away from the emotions of that not happening and enjoy a snowy week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Of course not if you live in SEMA. It's very possible they could get brushed by a feeder band, which could bring potentially several tenths of QPF. But the low itself will likely remain far offshore. So a big hit is unlikely. You gotta recognize which threats could make big guidance shifts, and which have less room to evolve. I'm not interpreting models based on where I live. I was optimistic about yesterday's snow even before it was modeled to scape the Cape. It's being modeled to have a strong area of deformation well away from the center of circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Yes a tick, but noise level. It had been pretty consistent. Compare the last 5 runs, no west trend but pretty steady. Unless you want to be grazed, steady's no good here. By 24 hours you need the mid-level low over coastal SC, not northern FL. You need a massive negative tilt developing with heights pumping up the east coast, not the trof structure being pinched off from the upstream wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Unless you want to be grazed, steady's no good here. By 24 hours you need the mid-level low over coastal SC, not northern FL. You need a massive negative tilt developing with heights pumping up the east coast, not the trof structure being pinched off from the upstream wave.Yes...I'm tracking what I believe will be a graze. What are you doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The nam shows exactly how you get 36-48 hours+ of snow . It's perfect Looks like a whiff on Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Yeah the monster storm idea has been really on the fringes for the past few days. A moderate event is really the threat. There are still a few ways that could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 the monster storm idea is gone, expect maybe far se zones for monday. rest of us, we just looking to remain with the decent signal to mood snow us to several inches. I'm not looking for a monster storm. I'm just saying that the reason people are even looking at this upcoming period with any anticipation is because they tend to associate the obvious features such as high amplitude neg. tilted trof and deep SLP with big snowstorms. But those features don't cause snow, they are just often associated with the mechanisms that do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I am just looking for a warning level event and that is all. It doesn't have to be a KU. The ski areas are in need of a KU or at least a solid hit to save the day. Of course that just isn't in the card. Snow showers are not going to get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Yeah the monster storm idea has been really on the fringes for the past few days. A moderate event is really the threat. There are still a few ways that could happen. Been discussed pretty well in the other thread that this has gone away from a monster as you said over the last few days, That first s/w is just in the right position right now to screw up the second s/w from developing off the coast and coming north with at least a modest event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 You seem to be the only one talking about monster storms impacting us. Your reading comprehension is subpar. The collective ability of this sub forum to sniff out snow threats has been dreadful for the past few weeks. Often hyping the long shots and downplaying the legit storms. I interpret it as a combination of being massively spoiled in recent winters and many not having more than a few years of model watching experience under their belts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 A low center could track right over LI, but it lacks the necessary temp. gradients to generate precip. It's relying on upper level divergence and unstable air aloft. It doesn't matter so much where the low center tracks. Look at the 850mb charts and see how the Mon. ocean storm creates a huge yin yang of warmer air wrapping NW and colder air wrapping SE. That helps generate lift and precipitation wrapping well NW of the low. But then compare that to the follow up low center and notice how there's a putrid temp gradient to feed off and meager QPF. Im referring to the potential of Mondays storm.Im not that excited about Tues Eve potential thou there is certainly some. NW New England and upstate NY Have much less potential here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I am just looking for a warning level event and that is all. It doesn't have to be a KU. The ski areas are in need of a KU or at least a solid hit to save the day. Of course that just isn't in the card. Snow showers are not going to get the job done. ALB is 357 days since their last 2" snowstorm. That's the mark I'm aiming for. I don't think we can do it in a single day though. Maybe over a few days. Annual seasonal snowfall is going to take a hit in ENY the next time averages are compiled. ALB average annual snowfall is pretty comparable with most of SNE away from the coast and out of the higher terrain. Where I am in the hills averages mores now than all of SNE outside of the high Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Your reading comprehension is subpar. The collective ability of this sub forum to sniff out snow threats has been dreadful for the past few weeks. Often hyping the long shots and downplaying the legit storms. I interpret it as a combination of being massively spoiled in recent winters and many not having more than a few years of model watching experience under their belts. Go melt in a different thread then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 4km nam still is Juicy from SE NH to ORH and all of E MA .75+, with much more on cape. Zzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Looking forward to the 0-14" that BOX has forecast for me on Monday. Thankfully, my reading comprehension is sufficient to read their maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 This is crazy. One or 2 melters getting upset because they aren't getting 12+, but upset it will be snowing more days than not next week. Mind numbing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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