The 4 Seasons Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Based on wv, I don't see the 3-5" for ffd cty Upton is forecasting. Still like my 2" call for dxr. They have 2-4 in the advisory for you. I think that's a fair call right now. The 4-8 just to the east in New Haven county I'm questioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 So what would be your forecast numbers for CT ? I don't think your layout is outrageous, I just don't think 4-8 is widespread. I would probably say 1-3 west, 3-6 east, with locally 5-8 in banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 They have 2-4 in the advisory for you. I think that's a fair call right now. The 4-8 just to the east in New Haven county I'm questioning. Ah they lowered it from yest. So yea agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I don't think your layout is outrageous, I just don't think 4-8 is widespread. I would probably say 1-3 west, 3-6 east, with locally 5-8 in banding.Sooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Sooooo Like I said, those amounts are possible, I just don't think they'll be widespread. Maybe I wake up later today and find out I was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Like I said, those amounts are possible, I just don't think they'll be widespread. Maybe I wake up later today and find out I was wrong. I agree with you I think box is high.Do you use the HRRR or hrrrx? They are really different back here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I agree with you I think box is high. Do you use the HRRR or hrrrx? They are really different back here Check back a few posts, I'm leaning with the HRRRX, mainly because I have a hard time seeing 4-6 to near EEN by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Check back a few posts, I'm leaning with the HRRRX, mainly because I have a hard time seeing 4-6 to near EEN by 00z.I saw your post that's what prompted the q. Wondering which you rely on for operational purposes on a regular basis. Or do you usually look at both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Seems that in addition to having threads for model analysis, obs, and banter, there needs to be one titled "Questioning NWS forecast snow amounts and Warning/Advisory decisions." Good God have these threads been clogged with that crap lately. I swear, some here seem to derive more pleasure from having the right shade cover their back yard than from actually getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I don't think your layout is outrageous, I just don't think 4-8 is widespread. I would probably say 1-3 west, 3-6 east, with locally 5-8 in banding.Thanks man. Just starting now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Seems that in addition to having threads for model analysis, obs, and banter, there needs to be one titled "Questioning NWS forecast snow amounts and Warning/Advisory decisions." Good God have these threads been clogged with that crap lately. I swear, some here seem to derive more pleasure from having the right shade cover their back yard than from actually getting snow. I think I would avoid questioning NWS employees on here about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Seems that in addition to having threads for model analysis, obs, and banter, there needs to be one titled "Questioning NWS forecast snow amounts and Warning/Advisory decisions." Good God have these threads been clogged with that crap lately. I swear, some here seem to derive more pleasure from having the right shade cover their back yard than from actually getting snow.Box only missed by 8" for my hood last storm. NBC comparatively missed by 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I think I would avoid questioning NWS employees on here about that.Don't question the government. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Seems that in addition to having threads for model analysis, obs, and banter, there needs to be one titled "Questioning NWS forecast snow amounts and Warning/Advisory decisions." Good God have these threads been clogged with that crap lately. I swear, some here seem to derive more pleasure from having the right shade cover their back yard than from actually getting snow. Thanks for clogging this thread with THIS crap. Debra spot thread, use it to complain. Still Nada at dxr. Usually these things move in quicker than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Hey I heard the stuff last night about the time it takes to update a forecast. And I get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Simply an over reaction due to the questionable call on Friday. I doubt we see more than 2" from this. Was much colder on the car thermometer as I headed into Worcester County (30* here to 24* as I headed toward 190). Made it all the way to 495 when I got the call the University closed. Worked out well though so my wife can go to work instead of dealing with the needlessly cancelled school day. Almost every school in W MA is closed, it's unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Box only missed by 8" for my hood last storm. NBC comparatively missed by 3-4. We were the highest - higher than NWS and other local stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Box only missed by 8" for my hood last storm. NBC comparatively missed by 3-4. So do you think that last storm was an easy one to forecast?, Looked like to me there were a lot of positive bust on that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Almost every school in W MA is closed, it's unbelievable. Pretty terrible. Clueless decision making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 We were the highest - higher than NWS and other local stations.True, but box had a really weird map with it tapering down to almost nothing from NE to SW. Nothing I saw was showing that type of qpf distribution and it made no sense given topography. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 So do you think that last storm was an easy one to forecast?No. I think their map made no sense, see my above post. It wasn't just too low across the board, the distribution resulted in a 7" difference across box/OKX zones in the southern part of the box ct counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I can already feel this event turning into one where the media and meteorologists as a whole get bashed for what it turns out to be. Nothing really seems to be going in our favor so far today. 4-8 for BOS still, however I wouldn't be shocked if it was just 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 No. I think their map made no sense, see my above post. It wasn't just too low across the board, the distribution resulted in a 7" difference across box/OKX zones in the southern part of the box ct counties. Overall, I think the all do a reasonable job and probably depends on the forecaster as well, But i have seen where OKX has issues a lot but they also have to factor in the population of what they forecast to make there calls it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Don't question the government.The point was asking a NWS employee to question their coworkers in a public forum appears impolite to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Man the ukie is close on the ivt down here. Certainly be watching the evolution of how that pushes north. Well at the least we see a couple more inches tomorrow night into Wed..if the trough scoots north it turns into more. Ukie been so good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Well at the least we see a couple more inches tomorrow night into Wed..if the trough scoots north it turns into more. Ukie been so goodIt's nothing special as currently modeled...slams snj which models have been targeting. But it could bump north a bit, will have to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Myself personally, I think this one is going to fall in the lower ranges on snow totals for many with someone getting lucky under a persistent band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 All the models I have access to (aka not Euro) hit this same area or a little south really hard. Would take an across the board shift in guidance but possible at 48-60 hours out to get a 50-100 mile bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The point was asking a NWS employee to question their coworkers in a public forum appears impolite to me. Yes! I'm grateful for all the pro forecasters spending time here. Why make it difficult? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Almost every school in W MA is closed, it's unbelievable. Closer to the border, there are districts closed. Ours is closing early. I'm assuming the rationale is to avoid kids getting off buses and walking in the snow, possibly next to traffic. For those not in NNE, there aren't a ton of sidewalks here and many times kids don't get dropped off really close to the house. For instance, I live on a hill. The bus doesn't go up into the neighborhood at all, there are no sidewalks and ditches run on the sides of the roads. If there was an accident, you can just imagine what a lawyer might say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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