CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 That lead band is the one to watch. Does it develop or will it weaken and fracture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It is snowing pretty heavily, or it was, not up stairs right now, can't see in the basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Nowcast time, radar, satelitte, obs etc. I think Box is high but the uncertainty with banding and Mesoscale stuff is greater than usual. I'm thinking 2-4 around my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I see nothing to change thoughts 2-4 w Ct 3-6 C CT to River 4-8 East of River Also agree with Will on sneaky bands way NW of models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 That lead band is the one to watch. Does it develop or will it weaken and fracture? A lot of the model guidance says we get more snow up here from the lingering inverted trough tonight than we do from any of this near miss today. But signs of the CJ starting to show up on kbox right now. Probably why OWD was reporting -SN last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I see nothing to change thoughts 2-4 w Ct 3-6 C CT to River 4-8 East of River Also agree with Will on sneaky bands way NW of models You can see that lead deformation band pivoting well south of LI on radar now. Looks like the real meat and potatoes will be east of you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I see nothing to change thoughts 2-4 w Ct 3-6 C CT to River 4-8 East of River Also agree with Will on sneaky bands way NW of models We'll see...but I think school closings west of the river are going to end up being unnecessary. Maybe I'll end up being wrong...but this seems to be one of those situations where some high amounts get thrown out early and everyone is too stubborn to back down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 You can see that lead deformation band pivoting well south of LI on radar now. Looks like the real meat and potatoes will be east of you? You can't love the look of radar echoes pulling east away from ACY right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Right now the meaty band James noted in his heavy snow obs is making progress but how far nw does it make it? Very windy nw and cold out. bos keeps dropping...now down to 30/21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Obviously models have been ticking E last 24 hours, as opposed to the last event. 0.3" QPF for ORH on the 6z 12km NAM. even at 20:1 its borderline warning at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 We'll see...but I think school closings west of the river are going to end up being unnecessary. Maybe I'll end up being wrong...but this seems to be one of those situations where some high amounts get thrown out early and everyone is too stubborn to back down. This is a tough forecast for sure. But over the years these usually fall way short of expectations. Hope the higher amounts are correct, but feel they are way over blown for most in CT. A couple inches will be it for most in most of CT...except if your way east in CT. Out in the SE areas they will see the higher impacts as thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Ski Mohegan Bluffs, BID has probably had the best winter of anyone in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 You can see that lead deformation band pivoting well south of LI on radar now. Looks like the real meat and potatoes will be east of you? I never expected to get into the heaviest snow here. But 4-8 very attainable. Radar looks great upstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I'm just not seeing the higher amounts for CT. This is my map...been my thinking since Saturday night. At this point it's about half what the NWS is calling for...but I'm sticking with it. Pretty similar to my map from yesterday except mine was 1-2 NW, 2-4 most, 4-7 SE. I am with ya.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Getting dangerously close....winds are really starting to howl too. Should be an awesome day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I feel good about my 3-6" call here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 SPC'S take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Right now the meaty band James noted in his heavy snow obs is making progress but how far nw does it make it? Very windy nw and cold out. bos keeps dropping...now down to 30/21. That may pivot for awhile near scooter. 23.6/14 Just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Latest HRRR is promising. Nice little sucker hole of RI again.....what else is new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Hey 4seasons, I PM'd you. Congrats on the MET degree:-)!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I would take that for here Latest HRRR is promising. Nice little sucker hole of RI again.....what else is new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 One thing I'll agree with SPC on there, the hi-res models do show that the second band tries to develop around 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Hey 4seasons, I PM'd you. Congrats on the MET degree:-)!! I PMed you a day ago and I still don't have anything in my in box, thats weird... :/ Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 One thing I'll agree with SPC on there, the hi-res models do show that the second band tries to develop around 15z. Do you agree with BOX/OKX's decision to expand warnings and bump up totals based on what you've seen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I don't see the support for warning criteria across New Haven or Hartford counties; actually kind of surprised that BOX and OKX didn't pull back the warnings a bit on the western fringe. Guess they're banking on ratios? Radar doesn't look too great to me considering that most guidance had snow here by 7 AM and it's well south of us right now and not moving very fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 2 foot surge this far removed from center is Uber impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 What are we thinking for round 2 later tomorrow evening into Wed? Another 2-4 for most with more along E Mass coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I don't see the support for warning criteria across New Haven or Hartford counties; actually kind of surprised that BOX and OKX didn't pull back the warnings a bit on the western fringe. Guess they're banking on ratios? Radar doesn't look too great to me considering that most guidance had snow here by 7 AM and it's well south of us right now and not moving very fast. Do you think it could be because of the last storm and now they're trying to get ahead of this one? Maybe too far ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I don't see the support for warning criteria across New Haven or Hartford counties; actually kind of surprised that BOX and OKX didn't pull back the warnings a bit on the western fringe. Guess they're banking on ratios? Radar doesn't look too great to me considering that most guidance had snow here by 7 AM and it's well south of us right now and not moving very fast. They are banking on the latest meso models specifically the HRRR/RAP are both bullish. I was very surprised too. To me the radar looks great. It is a little slower to move in but looks solid overall. I'm guessing you wont be changing your forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Looks like OES starting at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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