Storm and Mood Snow Feb 8-11

[CNY-LES FREAK]

I think Ray's a vet.  Go at it, Ray. 

 

17.6/12

It's a complete mess.  The energy is completely strung out so I can't imagine anything of great consequence coming from this solution.  Very ugly solution, but there is sooooo much potential that its sad, but still early I think.

[moneypitmike]

Much more impressive than current lack-luster look of a few inches of snow spread across the course of a few days (death by a thousand paper cuts) is what looks to be some chilly conditions  toward the end of the week/end.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Much more impressive than current lack-luster look of a few inches of snow spread across the course of a few days (death by a thousand paper cuts) is what looks to be some chilly conditions  toward the end of the week/end.

agreed

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Don't know if I'm on the same page as TD because if you watch the movement of H5, it does exactly what he explained and follows the baroclinic zone, then it hits the Cape and heads due East/ENE almost like Jonas did and with most, if not all, globals playing the same tune, its kind of hard to discount these solutions.  Yeah this last one came NW because of that Pig in the ATL, otherwise we would of waved at it as it scooted to our S&E.

[Damage In Tolland]

Seems like snow breaks out in Eastern areas tomorrow night and spreads west Monday and continues at varying intensities into Wednesday.. Days and days of snow. Periods and periods of snow

[CNY-LES FREAK]

The vort that totally screws everything up, lol!

[Ginx snewx]

Whatever floats your boat. Boring to me though.

I want the 'Behemoth'

I wish it would hit, that's my tm on that storm lol

[CNY-LES FREAK]

I'd say this is a pretty strong positively tilted trough as well, cause if it wasn't we might be seeing something headed up through the HRV, as the ridge axis out West is practically on the coast or perhaps a bit off the coast but at the time of Monday's event/whiff its slightly inland. The way this season has been progressing anything can happen at this point.  No one thought we'd get anything appreciable except two individuals, and we all know who they are (props), and look what happened within 36 hrs.

 

[N. OF PIKE]

If that Great Lakes energy dives further SW could we see the first low dumbbell back toward coast more (almost Fuji wugi like)

[Damage In Tolland]

Lots of worry over nothing. It's going to snow in the Monday thru Wednesday period. That much we know. Amounts TBD

Use an ensemble approach until tonight's 00z runs when the op runs will begin to get a clue and tomorrow we start looking at hi res stuff

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Today's 12Z suite should shed some more light on Mondays non-event. The said SW in the PNW that has the slightest chance of still phasing, is now just entering a better area for data sampling as the 06Z initialized while it was still over the Pacific I think but I can be wrong, so who knows, but theres one thing thats quite evident, its strong.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

If that Great Lakes energy dives further SW could we see the first low dumbbell back toward coast more (almost Fuji wugi like)

That energy is headed due East into Eastern Canada, while the SW in the PNW is the one that dives.

[Lava Rock]

ugh, here we go again. I won't get too invested until sat/sun.

Well looks like my tempered enthusiasm looks warranted. This looks like a potential flop.

[dendrite]

Don't know if I'm on the same page as TD because if you watch the movement of H5, it does exactly what he explained and follows the baroclinic zone, then it hits the Cape and heads due East/ENE almost like Jonas did and with most, if not all, globals playing the same tune, its kind of hard to discount these solutions.  Yeah this last one came NW because of that Pig in the ATL, otherwise we would of waved at it as it scooted to our S&E.

Meh...we get plenty of lows into the GOM. The track of the vortmax plays a larger role.

[eduggs]

Guidance is pretty static on this threat.   It all shows basically the same evolution, and it's been showing the same thing run after run with decreasing inter and intra model spread.

 

Mid and upper levels are not supportive of widespread significant snow.  We are again at the point where we need to see shifts in guidance aloft.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I get this....different strokes for different folks.....but just don't try to sell me the fact that this is on par with one of our most classic months.

Believe me, it would help my cause if it were.

I get that H5 may be classic, but like I said when the blizzard whiffed, if the heavy snow were 100 miles to the north, then this winter would have had a whooooole different vibe.

But it wasn't.

So it didn't.

Personally, I'd rather go mild if we aren't to see at least a moderate impactor.....

It won't be a classic month unless it produces at the surface, looks good on paper at the moment.

But after the mild spell we got anal front to produce. It's a decent start. Sure next week doesn't look amazing but 3-6" or whatever will just add to the miniscule seasonal totals so far. AND if I told you Feb will produce around 25-30" for bos, you'd prob sign up for it right? Well a 3-6", granted over 36hr isn't ideal but it will add to the 7" from yesterday, before halfway point in Feb.

Look, I'm all about the deep bomb. But when we are in third qtr, down by 24, it's all about chipping away at the defecit one posession at a time. 3 touchdowns and 3 2pt conversions would be nice but if we have to settle for a 45yd fg and cut it to 21, we got posessions left still.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Guidance is pretty static on this threat.   It all shows basically the same evolution, and it's been showing the same thing run after run with decreasing inter and intra model spread.

 

Mid and upper levels are not supportive of widespread significant snow.  We are again at the point where we need to see shifts in guidance aloft.

Which threat? This is an open ended model discussion for the Monday-Wednesday timeframe not just Monday.

[JC-CT]

Guidance is pretty static on this threat. It all shows basically the same evolution, and it's been showing the same thing run after run with decreasing inter and intra model spread.

Mid and upper levels are not supportive of widespread significant snow. We are again at the point where we need to see shifts in guidance aloft.

For Albany? Agreed. Still wouldn't sleep on the coastal the farther southeast you are.

[Damage In Tolland]

Even Alb should get a couple inches minimum form the 3 day siege of snows

[JC-CT]

The blizzard didn't whiff all of New England, fyi

[N. OF PIKE]

1. Lets get the models with a amplified upper trough to lead the way

If that happens, we should get the stronger closer low, and we will see if the Warmer SST gradient west of the Gulf Stream can get models correcting West once again, like mount holly mentions

Cape looks crushed on hr 54 nam. .75 in 6 hours w 50 knot ENE inflow.

Watch the amplification strength of the upper trough on the globals in next 2 model periods for monday. This is not looking like a real threat for Albany but the cape could be crushed.

[eduggs]

Which threat? This is an open ended model discussion for the Monday-Wednesday timeframe not just Monday.

I lumped them together. 

 

We have an upper level circulation well offshore of SC and another over the UP of MI.  All guidance has consistently modeled these features.  That's not a good snow setup.  That's a recipe for two misses.  Minus some localized light snows.

[JC-CT]

The NAM has been pretty steady over the past 5 runs for the coastal being a scraper.

[Damage In Tolland]

Snow Mon into Wed. Who is going to say no to that?

[dendrite]

The NAM has been pretty steady over the past 5 runs for the coastal being a scraper.

12z took a tick east.

[dendrite]

Snow Mon into Wed. Who is going to say no to that?

Wintry appeal!

[JC-CT]

12z took a tick east.

Yes a tick, but noise level. It had been pretty consistent. Compare the last 5 runs, no west trend but pretty steady.

[JC-CT]

Wintry appeal!

Sorry you don't like the outcome.

[eduggs]

1. Lets get the models with a amplified upper trough to lead the way

If that happens, we should get the stronger closer low, and we will see if the Warmer SST gradient west of the Gulf Stream can get models correcting West once again, like mount holly mentions

A low center could track right over LI, but it lacks the necessary temp. gradients to generate precip.  It's relying on upper level divergence and unstable air aloft.  It doesn't matter so much where the low center tracks. 

 

Look at the 850mb charts and see how the Mon. ocean storm creates a huge yin yang of warmer air wrapping NW and colder air wrapping SE.  That helps generate lift and precipitation wrapping well NW of the low.  But then compare that to the follow up low center and notice how there's a putrid temp gradient to feed off and meager QPF.

[eduggs]

Seriously, people should look at the 850mb temp charts.  Too much obsession with SLP numbers and the high amplitude trof.  We're missing a key ingredient that is usually associated with those first two things creating monster storms.