wxsniss Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 some observations... may all be just noise: 0z NAM vs. 18z NAM perhaps a tick better at H5, you can see slightly better interaction with the midwest trough 12z-15z Monday, with slightly more elongated midlevel center... might just be noise at 0z compared to SPC mesoanalysis: both 0z and 18z had SLP too far south, ~ 33N whereas SPC had low (at 0z and currently) closer to 34N... where it goes from there I'm not sure maybe this is noise, but I think one key thing to nowcast, along with SLP position, is timing of interaction with trough over next 12 hours based on heights and shape of midlevel centers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Uh... Looks like it is tracking OTS...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Updated WSW text issued at 21:11 Updated WSW text issued at 21:11 oh yeah, saw it.. in line with my 6-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 some observations... may all be just noise: 0z NAM vs. 18z NAM perhaps a tick better at H5, you can see slightly better interaction with the midwest trough 12z-15z Monday, with slightly more elongated midlevel center... might just be noise at 0z compared to SPC mesoanalysis: both 0z and 18z had SLP too far south, ~ 33N whereas SPC had low (at 0z and currently) closer to 34N... where it goes from there I'm not sure maybe this is noise, but I think one key thing to nowcast, along with SLP position, is timing of interaction with trough over next 12 hours based on heights and shape of midlevel centers Almost like a tropical system off of the east coast...admiring it on sat., while we wait for it to get picked up by the trough......and as is the case with tropical systems, it will curl a hair too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Yup, 100mi E of historic.We weenie out over tropical cyclones that hit 3 farms in rural mexico. Nothing wrong with admiring this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Almost like a tropical system off of the east coast...admiring it on sat., while we wait for it to get picked up by the trough......and as is the case with tropical systems, it will curl a hair too far east. We weenie out over tropical cyclones that hit 3 farms in rural mexico. Nothing wrong with admiring this one. Great minds, bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 some observations... may all be just noise: 0z NAM vs. 18z NAM perhaps a tick better at H5, you can see slightly better interaction with the midwest trough 12z-15z Monday, with slightly more elongated midlevel center... might just be noise at 0z compared to SPC mesoanalysis: both 0z and 18z had SLP too far south, ~ 33N whereas SPC had low (at 0z and currently) closer to 34N... where it goes from there I'm not sure maybe this is noise, but I think one key thing to nowcast, along with SLP position, is timing of interaction with trough over next 12 hours based on heights and shape of midlevel centers I believe we wanted to see it further southeast at this point, as that se movement was happening on models as low got swung up by the trough. The further this goes NE, the further away from the trough it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Rap is absolutely not backing down-doing the best Tom petty among models. In line with rpm or even more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Is this event supposed to affect the MA at all, or shall I say NYC area? Just wondering as I haven't been paying attention down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Rap is absolutely not backing down-doing the best Tom petty among models. In line with rpm or even more robust. yeap actually has improved in the boston metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 yeap actually has improved in the boston metro area. Really goes to town late morning into early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 RAP is like 5-6" at BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 SNOW RATIOS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 1 ACROSS THE AREAINDICATING A DRY FLUFFY SNOW WHICH WILL EASILY BE BLOWN AROUND BYTHE WIND. BEST LIFT FOR SNOW PRODUCTION GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARDACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES AREEXPECTED TO BE LIGHT... GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR LESS PER 6 HOURPERIOD. HOWEVER... OVER THE COARSE OF THE 24 HOUR EVENT SNOWTOTALS WILL LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE FORECASTAREA. HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WHERE THERE WILLBE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER 6INCHES ARE POSSIBLE HERE BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL BE OVER ALONG DURATION 24 HOUR PERIOD THUS ONLY AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUEDFOR THIS AREA. THE WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR COASTALROCKINGHAM COUNTY IS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE HEAVIER SNOWAS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING. 18 hrs to get to 6, so definitely mood snows the next couple days which I'm good with! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 RAP is like 5-6" at BOS.I'm seeing 5.5" and still going strong at hour 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 RAP is like 5-6" at BOS. really? looks like the 0.75 line is tickling boston if not north of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 02z HRRR already busted too far north at hour 1. Tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 rgem appears quite solid for Boston to pvd area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Almost like a tropical system off of the east coast...admiring it on sat., while we wait for it to get picked up by the trough......and as is the case with tropical systems, it will curl a hair too far east. Well folks need to remember it will have another diurnal max Monday before it undergoes extratropical transition. Yeah lol... this may look so much better on the computer screen than out the window. We'll see. Barring mesoscale features like OES or coastal front, not sure how much room we have left for surprises. There's actually fairly decent guidance consensus. 0z RGEM included. And it's a shade or 2 less than the Box map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Lot's of imagination going on here ... It's hard to argue with satellite and radar activity. As others have noted ... a smart due east trajectory has occurred over the last several hours per satellite, which is lucid in that nature. Radar has also been shrinking away from the coast while showing difficulty in moving N within cold sector long range reflective returns. I'm not sure how these now-cast observations reconcile with which-ever previous model run, but it doesn't really appear good for much impact in SNE. Granted, there are other mechanical features to track as others have also noted ... be it OES and unusually extended CCB terminus' and so forth. A more human critique for this system ... the trough et al.. it seems as though this whole series of affairs is fighting convention to the last breath, to ensure the greatest trough this season has to offer does as little as physically possible. Objectively ...It's interesting looking at this new NAM run, how all that trailing vorticity advection associated with the main amplitude is now also shooting unusually far E before turning N. That seems to spare our region what folks want from this, too. If the ridge over western N/A were further E and also more progressive, much more of this would make more "intuitive" fluid sense - at least on the surface. As is, this trough is just doing the anomalous out-pace of the western ridge. One thing I am also noticing through all of this... there is an usually high number of wind barbs sporting two flags + wind velocity all over the place on the south and east aspect of this train-wreck of a deep trough. That aspect alone sort of rings/hearkens back to March 2001 for me, where the "Miami rule" appeared to play a factor. The heights in the Caribbean/ Gulf and adjacent Floridian skies are too high and thus... these events are drilling too much wind velocity around their southern flanks - it's a subtle factor but an important one when this happens. When the wind field is weaker prior to the trough arrival, it's more capable of generating more roll-out ridging ahead of its self - which feeds back in turning things more N. But that incredible wind tube is blasting east out over the open Atlantic and foisting any cyclonic generation right along with it. March 2001 did curl back enough to clip CNE and some of eastern MA, but bias east of features in the flow is definitely related to compression in the flow in the deep SE. One day perhaps I will be rewarded for this insight, but I'm not holding my breath ... that's part of the problem with this. The other, as we spoke at length all week, is good old fashioned wave interference. The N stream events are so powerful, they could have probably over-come that Miami fang-dangle and did at least something, but this current feature is taking the baroclinic fuel away from EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Look at the signal for enhancement around scooterville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Look at the signal for enhancement around scooterville. image.gif Im liking my spot in Hingham tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Really impressive on WV Impressive... Almost see an eye on the loop...like someone said before, about 100miles east of historic.. If only that sw in the lakes would pull it back and capture, cut off..if only congrats se ne, I ain't got notta this winter, just ain't breaking for western areas this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GFS looks better at 30 hrs.. wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 0z GFS is NW of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 really? looks like the 0.75 line is tickling boston if not north of it. I couldn't see total QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Satellite and Euro progs look in sync. Don't know if some saw the Euro but the east move was forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Lot's of imagination going on here ... It's hard to argue with satellite and radar activity. As others have noted ... a smart due east trajectory has occurred over the last several hours per satellite, which is lucid in that nature. Radar has also been shrinking away from the coast while showing difficulty in moving N within cold sector long range reflective returns. What the Sam hell are you talking about. It has been modeled for many runs now to swing hard east as the h5 low rounded up the trough. It was actually supposed to swing hard southeast. You're imagining that models didn't show it well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Satellite and Euro progs look in sync. Don't know if some saw the Euro but the east move was forecastNAM, rgem showed it well for several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Gfs with light snow all day in many areas Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Look at the signal for enhancement around scooterville. image.gif Look at the middle finger it's giving me in Newport. I've seen that one before. Rgem had the same. I'm thinking the consensus of around 4 inches works out here, and box busts high on the Nam oversteer,but we'll see how ragged things are on the periphery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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