CT Rain Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I really like Phil's map my self We basically have the same forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I really like Phil's map my selfPost it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Wow. Rap is damn impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 2-4 western 1/3 3-6 C CT to river 4-8 River East That is reasonable. Before 00z guidance....I think I'd go 3-6" from ORH east, and 6-12" from I 95 SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Wow. Rap is damn impressive its 3-6" statewide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Wow. Rap is damn impressive How will you handle 4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 This is a low confidence forecast if I've seen one Lets see if we can get hit with a outer band in A.M Anyone see any wind reports on bouys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Mesos clearly can't handle this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Well, what I meant was an overdone forecast creates hype...but again, we'll see......I can fathom a positive bust. Frank's a great forecaster. I think it helped that I had the luxury of looking at the 18z runs which backed off back this way. BOX could certainly be right - but the forecast we're going wit back here is lower (though not by much). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Frank's a great forecaster. I think it helped that I had the luxury of looking at the 18z runs which backed off back this way. BOX could certainly be right - but the forecast we're going wit back here is lower (though not by much). I'm not trashing BOX or Frank....just to be clear. I'm just not sure that I would have dropped the B-bomb yet. Certainly could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 How will you handle 4"?Oh you're looking at snowfall maps? Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 This is a low confidence forecast if I've seen one Lets see if we can get hit with a outer band in A.M Anyone see any wind reports on bouys Most recent obs. at Diamond Shoals, 42.7kts, 54.4kts gusts. Fyi, bp down to 29.24 at the East Hatteras Buoy, with winds coming from 150 deg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Oh you're looking at snowfall maps? Ok Nope, how else can I shoot you down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Bouchard reminds me a little of Mike Carey CBS Football Ref Advisor Wrong more then right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Oh you're looking at snowfall maps? Ok if you're looking at reflectivity, there is no more than 20-25dbz over the state at any point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I'm not trashing BOX or Frank....just to be clear. I'm just not sure that I would have dropped the B-bomb yet. Certainly could be right. I was actually thinking about this the other day... I'm not sure people realize how much time it takes to actually get the forecast rolled out. For us, for the 5pm news, the forecast has to pretty much be done for a big event by 230 or so. Graphics are made, web is updated, social media is done, briefings with management, conference calls about staffing, talking to our neighboring NBC owned stations, talking to the other mets, reading reporter scripts, holding meetings with producers, etc takes a lot of time. We can't just change the forecast on a dime when looking at 18z runs. Hell, it's hard to even make relatively minor changes. It's pretty similar with the NWS from what I understand. Briefings with media and emergency management, typing up products, working on stuff for web/social media, getting the grids to look just right. That stuff takes a lot of time to do and you can't start backing off on some products when other products or briefings have already taken place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I think Phil is reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Pretty close to NWS BOX ideas. Reasonable unless there is some big shift E tonight or other variables like tighter precip shield etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I think Phil is reasonable.yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Pretty close to NWS BOX ideas. Reasonable unless there is some big shift E tonight or other variables like tighter precip shield etc. Looks like you covered all the bases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I think Phil is reasonable.latest RPM tweeted by MT is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Looks like you covered all the bases Lol. or reduced qpf or, tattered precip shield on the fringes or banding screw zones. I think the shift E possibility would be sobering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Most of the maps look pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I was actually thinking about this the other day... I'm not sure people realize how much time it takes to actually get the forecast rolled out. For us, for the 5pm news, the forecast has to pretty much be done for a big event by 230 or so. Graphics are made, web is updated, social media is done, briefings with management, conference calls about staffing, talking to our neighboring NBC owned stations, talking to the other mets, reading reporter scripts, holding meetings with producers, etc takes a lot of time. We can't just change the forecast on a dime when looking at 18z runs. Hell, it's hard to even make relatively minor changes. It's pretty similar with the NWS from what I understand. Briefings with media and emergency management, typing up products, working on stuff for web/social media, getting the grids to look just right. That stuff takes a lot of time to do and you can't start backing off on some products when other products or briefings have already taken place. You can always toss in a "we're watching a possible trend towards xxx, tune in at 11 for the latest". There's not really anywhere besides the AFD for NWS to do that. I guess the ability to be a bit ahead of the mainstream media is what keeps us weenies looking at the models and hanging out in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Most recent obs. at Diamond Shoals, 42.7kts, 54.4kts gusts. Fyi, bp down to 29.24 at the East Hatteras Buoy, with winds coming from 150 deg.Beast mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Most of the maps look pretty similar. Correct. The blizzard warning probably sends people into a frenzy on social media. They think it means feet and feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Tollland is that an app you are using for that pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Correct. The blizzard warning probably sends people into a frenzy on social media. They think it means feet and feet.There's something to this, the public's definition of blizzard is not precisely the same as the nws's definition. They should consider changing it to snow warning plus wind warning when applicable in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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