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Storm and Mood Snow Feb 8-11


TalcottWx

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Yeah, I'm mildly skeptical but also trust Burbank has a met and it seems like the precip shield on this beast is pretty robust E to W unlike some of our more tightly wound nukes.

here's a thought, we are weenies and know the difference but look at the GFS evolution would anyone else know that there are two separate systems potentially. Look at the 3 day qpf map. Since every Met here hates any type of snowfall map,I will just post the QPF map.You figure out using your own wit.

accqpfne.png

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here's a thought, we are weenies and know the difference but look at the GFS evolution would anyone else know that there are two separate systems potentially. Look at the 3 day qpf map. Since every Met here hates any type of snowfall map,I will just post the QPF map.You figure out using your own wit.

accqpfne.png

I was thinking that too. Box could just extend the through time of their map if the coastal is light.
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This is not like the last one and expectations should be kept in check

Interesting nowcasting situation though. At 5pm, bp at 29.52 at Hatteras, while 29.40 at the Diamond Shoals platform, 13 miles to the ese. In addition, winds now from a northerly component at Hatteras, but at 51 degrees at Diamond Shoals. So the center of the lps shouldn't be that far to it's se, closer than depicted by the models. 

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How so?

The last system the slp was moving back NW as we had higher heights out ahead of the system, This one we are relying on the mid levels centers to be further west with some influence of the ULL to tug the precip shield further NW, The track of the slp has been steady and It comes down to how the upper levels are handled

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it's not like it's 24 hrs out though. Literally for the Cape it's a difference of potentially life threatening daytime conditions to something not unusual. High stakes stuff on a Monday.

It looks to be more in the track of the mid level centers as the slp seems to have not wavered in track

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Interesting nowcasting situation though. At 5pm, bp at 29.52 at Hatteras, while 29.40 at the Diamond Shoals platform, 13 miles to the ese. In addition, winds now from a northerly component at Hatteras, but at 51 degrees at Diamond Shoals. So the center of the lps shouldn't be that far to it's se, closer than depicted by the models. 

At E Hatteras buoy about 150 miles E of Hatteras, winds are still from 90º, so it looks like the low is still south of there.  Quite the pictures of those 20+ foot seas.

 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41001

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I dont hate the BOX map, lets stop living and dying by each model run. I think we get a nice firehose somewhere like early march 13 south of BOS. Low was way off the coast then too and i dont think many models had more than 6".

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I like 3"-5" for most of CT. Maybe a heavier band out east but I think 3-5 is a good call now.

Here's my latest thinking in case anyone is interested ----> http://www.ryanhanrahan.com/2016/02/07/another-storm/

Always interested. Are you just forecasting through tomorrow or including any snow that might come from the ivt? I do feel that is a bit of a wildcard.
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