HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Gonna bite ya in the end at some point. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It's actually west with the extent of the precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Lol at the westerners with their fingers on the trigger. Jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 As usual, I don't care what the nam has until other 18z stuff is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It's actually west with the extent of the precip shield Not up here, It went east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It really exits stage right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Just looking at the upper level charts, you'd never believe this system could dump more than 12" on the US mainland. This is a fringe job, even if being fringed in this case results in significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Not a huge shift east on the NAM,just a bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Meh...follow the RGEM. The new King. Still thinking 4-8" E of ORH to BOS. Someone gets 8"+ SEMA to PYM to CCC. 2-4" W SNE - C NH - coastal ME. That's been my thinking, that's what I'm sticking to. Even though I'd love to forecast 16" for PYM too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Low track is about the same, Just not as much precip on the NW side of the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 This will be a blockbuster storm... just not spread out all over god's creation; relatively confined to eastern zones and the capeAbsolutely not. It isn't even close to being a "blockbuster" storm. Or are you calling for a tic west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Not up here, It went eastIt's more E-W oriented vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Blizzard warning out for se MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Lol. The 4k is slightly less robust than 12z..but its still really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 my final call, for fun as always, for selected areas: In state: DXR: 2" BDR: 2" HVN: 5" BDL: 4" IJD: 7" Out of state: ORH: 9" BOS: 8" TAN: 13" HYA: 8" PVD: 6" Thanks for playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Absolutely not. It isn't even close to being a "blockbuster" storm. Or are you calling for a tic west?Blockbuster for some fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 meanwhile the Euro came west... So this NAM went a tic east... and 18z yesterday it tic twice west, then baled at 00z ...only to come half way back a 12z, now e? Giga motions causing permutations in output... nothing in one run of the NAM would ever, or should ever, change a think-tanks forecast philosophy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 my final call, for fun as always, for selected areas: In state: DXR: 2" BDR: 2" HVN: 5" BDL: 4" IJD: 7" Out of state: ORH: 9" BOS: 8" TAN: 13" HYA: 8" Thanks for playing. You did ok with this Friday despite my doubts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Not a huge shift east on the NAM,just a bump. #hopelessleyclingingtohope We now return you to your regularly scheduled Super Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Just looking at the upper level charts, you'd never believe this system could dump more than 12" on the US mainland. This is a fringe job, even if being fringed in this case results in significant snow. Reminds me of March '13 in that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Absolutely not. It isn't even close to being a "blockbuster" storm. Or are you calling for a tic west? well, I suppose it comes down to what's the definition of "blockbuster" -- I think 12 to 18" and blizzard warnings certainly count. this isn't really a topic worth of scrutiny or debate though - it's petty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 18z NAM dry burps are not uncommon for perspective: 18z NAM is now drier than 12z Euro for eastern MA the biggest change on this run is midlevel centers are less expansive and ticked southeast, so qpf shield is more confined no reason to cancel anything just yet barring other 18z similar moves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Well the west trend stops. Didn't the NAM lead the way with the west trend and now backs off. Now you got to sit on the edge of your seats for another hour to see what the GFS does. Tough forecast down there. Stakes are high with Blizzard Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings. Many schools will make their decisions based on that. Really have to wait for the 0Z guidance later this eve but by then its too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Meh...follow the RGEM. The new King. Still thinking 4-8" E of ORH to BOS. Someone gets 8"+ SEMA to PYM to CCC. 2-4" W SNE - C NH - coastal ME. That's been my thinking, that's what I'm sticking to. Even though I'd love to forecast 16" for PYM too. the 4k NAM is the king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Actually, at hr 24 the NAM did tick nw, but 1 mb weaker, and the qpf shield receded: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016020718&fh=24&xpos=0&ypos=139 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016020712&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Blockbuster for some fishYeah, I don't get what he's getting at. I don't see any parts of the storm verifying as a blockbuster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 the 4k NAM is the king [insert whatever model shows the most snow] is the King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Well the west trend stops. Didn't the NAM lead the way with the west trend and now backs off. Now you got to sit on the edge of your seats for another hour to see what the GFS does. Tough forecast down there. Stakes are high with Blizzard Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings. Many schools will make their decisions based on that. Really have to wait for the 0Z guidance later this eve but by then its too late. It really stayed the same as far as track goes, Its the precip field that changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Well the west trend stops. Didn't the NAM lead the way with the west trend and now backs off. Now you got to sit on the edge of your seats for another hour to see what the GFS does. Tough forecast down there. Stakes are high with Blizzard Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings. Many schools will make their decisions based on that. Really have to wait for the 0Z guidance later this eve but by then its too late. Schools shouldn't make decisions until the morning. I don't understand this absurd trend to making decisions the night before for storms--we all know how storms can bust for better or worse. Of course, these are days when schools close because of the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 well, I suppose it comes down to what's the definition of "blockbuster" -- I think 12 to 18" and blizzard warnings certainly count. this isn't really a topic worth of scrutiny or debate though - it's petty. On the other hand 12-18" is way overdone. I'll be shocked if a large area takes that much like NWS map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.