dryslot Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Confused. Which GGEM map is more accurate. One shows 5 to 6 for wester CT. The other 2 to 3? Depends on ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Confused. Which GGEM map is more accurate. One shows 5 to 6 for wester CT. The other 2 to 3? im just posting for the nuke mon. I didnt add the invt snows following it like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I think most of us get it good going all in for this one I'll go up to 4-5 for you. Up to 2-3 for GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Depends on ratios so wouldnt the kuchera clown maps be more reasonale than std 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Are there any historical storm analogues that compare to this storm? The storm itself seems it will be deeper than your run of the mill nor'easter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Hmmm… first subtle signs of the infamous RI subsidence zone starting to appear? All snowfall maps I've seen so far (GEM, RGEM, pivotalweather…) all pointing to lower totals in RI with heavier totals to the west and east… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 im just posting for the nuke mon. I didnt add the invt snows following it like this: I like that look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Cmc total at hr 240 is 18 to 24 for most I would lock that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 so wouldnt the kuchera clown maps be more reasonale than std 10:1? My guess for the inland areas it should be as it would be away from the marine influence, My guess is they factor SST's in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 im just posting for the nuke mon. I didnt add the invt snows following it like this: Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Cmc total at hr 240 is 18 to 24 for most I would lock that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This thing is a beast I think much higher we will see I'll go up to 4-5 for you. Up to 2-3 for GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Those snow maps suck. They always underestimate near coast and Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 yea, your right. dunno why such a big difference esp in NH/ME. Its because the storm starts to veer ENE as it gains lat, Pretty typical of a Miller A for up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I liked your enthusiasm until i read that last sentence I just meant that western and northern areas should keep expectations in check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Those snow maps suck. They always underestimate near coast and Cape. They take into account that it's usually rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This has been a strange time in t=48 hrs or less of modeling. I can't recall such a time.Warm Atlantic SST + strong jets = a lot of convection = struggling global-resolution models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Those snow maps suck. They always underestimate near coast and Cape. It's because they haven't figured out the new climate shift where you get more than Mt Mansield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I thought you did a bit better. Your area and VT out to ALB area have been so awful Pretty bad here this season but nothing compared to yours. We also did very well (if not in blockbuster fashion) last season so this hurts less Aweful is like 2011-2012....this is all-time haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It's because they haven't figured out the new climate shift where you get more than Mt Mansield "Ducks and hides..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Check out @AccuRayno's Tweet: https://twitter.com/AccuRayno/status/696369524413591552?s=09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I just meant that western and northern areas should keep expectations in check I knew what you meant, The extent of the western edge can only get so far back, But small tics NW keep pushing the precip field back as well, This storm is massive to be able to get warning snows back as far as they are with a slp track around 38/66 is pretty impressive, If this was on the BM it would be a HECS for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It's because they haven't figured out the new climate shift where you get more than Mt Mansield lol you love this so much. But you are right. NNE mountains have shoveled hundreds of inches of EPS snows this year. Whenever you look at those like 10-14 day EPS means it like diverts to climo. You see the max in Maine/NH/NVT where the high terrain is and then it decreases as you head south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Kuchera is based primarily on the max temp in the bottom 500mb of the profile. So if you're progged to be 31-33F it heavily penalizes your ratios. If it's really cold, it'll overestimate your ratios sometimes. For the former scenario...usually those 2m temps are a little too warm when it's pounding 1/4SM snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 "Ducks and hides..." It's true, you can really only troll areas that average more snow than you. Like there's no fun in a season I'm getting snow and trolling James because the Cape isn't. Then you just look like an arse. But trolling high annual snow areas never gets old from the coastal plain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 That storm at hr 219 on the GGEM is similar to the solutions the models had a few days back for this storm when the first low went well east down in the southern states and the second wave developed and hugged the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It's because they haven't figured out the new climate shift where you get more than Mt Mansield lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 My first (hopefully only guess): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 My first (hopefully only guess):That's exactly how I would draw it up right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Check out @AccuRayno's Tweet: https://twitter.com/AccuRayno/status/696369524413591552?s=09 Don't think you can disagree with that reasoning right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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