40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Every single analogue I've looked at resulted in a miss or glancing blow. One thing that has bothered me is the s/w spacing, orientation of the LW trough. The trough so deep and goes negative at such a southern lat. That southern bowling ball spins up a tempest that rivals any hurricane, the trough gets stretched e/w then the L is shredded to oblivion. All the while the ridge in the W is rising. Along comes the second potent s/w which in turn results in cyclogenesis off the Mid Atlantic. With such an orientation one would think the two would phase or at least pull the departing storm north and west. What am I missing other than brains? The support of any guidance whatsoever at 48 hours lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm still feeling meh on this NW of ORH I'm with you. But I think you end up with several inches when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Behomouth beast can stay where it is RGEM secondary max deform with 4-6 works fine then we figure out nub3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Through Wednesday or Monday? That is through both events. That being said this area to you could be in line for significant OES contribution with the Monday system. Looking at the 2m temp map it's somewhat similar to the DC blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Gfs bumps it up again 108-120. Yeah that thing is so up in the air as to what happens. This whole setup reeks of general light snows overall from Monday to Wednesday with localized jacks much higher in mesoscale convergence bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Someone between Baltimore and Bangor gets a shocking amount of Norlun snow in the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Yeah that thing is so up in the air as to what happens. This whole setup reeks of general light snows overall from Monday to Wednesday with localized jacks much higher in mesoscale convergence bands. What I take out of this: A potential to snow for several days early this week. Considering earlier this winter I bet people still find a way to b*tch. Saying that: far NW and NNE have reason to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Maue: "Warm-core seclusion" is end result of extreme extratropical cyclone lifecycle. This one is historically strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 What I take out of this: A potential to snow for several days early this week. Considering earlier this winter I bet people still find a way to b*tch. Saying that: far NW and NNE have reason to. it blows a bit., nice system OTS .. would rather have it cripple us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm not saying this is an analog because it isn't, but do you remember before the feb 7-9 event last year that tons of people were MEHing like 8-10" over 60 hours? That had more overrunning involved and this is more pseudo decaying CCB and Ocean enhancement with east flow even into inland areas. But there is still potential for something bigger even if it takes 60 hours. Given how pathetic the winter has been up until Friday, the possibility of 8"+ is worth following. This could easily be 2-4"/1-3" too but lots of MEHing has me reminiscing about that event which was having trouble producing a lot of QPF in short intervals until really late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Maue: "Warm-core seclusion" is end result of extreme extratropical cyclone lifecycle. This one is historically strong I'm glad the fact that we miss 99% of it doesn't bother you in the least. I'm off to meditate and celebrate that. Night. Still time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 FWIW Burbank on WBZ just said 3" for Boston, up to 6" do points SE. Not sure if that was for just Monday. He seems underwhelmed for the entire 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GEM has a nice little 24 hour event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm glad the fact that we miss 99% of it doesn't bother you in the least. I'm off to meditate and celebrate that. Night. Still time.... You're right it doesn't bother me. Solution is far from locked in and it's going to snow alot. I'm not or the KU or bust squad like you. I'll take what I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm not saying this is an analog because it isn't, but do you remember before the feb 7-9 event last year that tons of people were MEHing like 8-10" over 60 hours? That had more overrunning involved and this is more pseudo decaying CCB and Ocean enhancement with east flow even into inland areas. But there is still potential for something bigger even if it takes 60 hours. Given how pathetic the winter has been up until Friday, the possibility of 8"+ is worth following. This could easily be 2-4"/1-3" too but lots of MEHing has me reminiscing about that event which was having trouble producing a lot of QPF in short intervals until really late. And that event Shockingly, maybe More forgotten already than any storm of my lifetime, shockingly dropped 24" on Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 FWIW Burbank on WBZ just said 3" for Boston, up to 6" do points SE. Not sure if that was for just Monday. He seems underwhelmed for the entire 3 days. He's underwhelming compared to our boy Harvey. Could be a snowy week coming up..may b snowing more often than not, although amts. uncertain #wcvb Heaviest snow threat this week appears to be Mon...but some snow is possible each day thru Thu #wcvb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 25 years from now, people will look at all-time greatest storms in Boston's history and go... Blizzard of this, Blizzard of that........ what Hell is this Feb. 7-9 weird thing in 8th place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 25 years from now, people will look at all-time greatest storms in Boston's history and go... Blizzard of this, Blizzard of that........ what Hell is this Feb. 7-9 weird thing in 8th place? not likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Mike Wankum @MetMikeWCVB 4m4 minutes ago Keeping my forecast snow totals the same for now, but late data points toward the low end of my estimates. Tweaking continues. #wcvb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Holy Moses. Scott's like that in sufferable fan that can't jump on the bandwagon at the end of the fourth quarter when you're team is making a remarkable comeback everyone's screaming and can feel it but sitting over there moping in the corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Amen typhoon! Your a good man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 6s for Bos in both met and mav Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 not likely I think he's referring to last year, when we got around 2 ft on those dates, but not as a raging blizzard. I think he's right; it's already receded somewhat in my memory. I just remember Weymouth and Blue Hills cracking thirty. Anyway, downplaying anything major on this one for now, but looking forward to a prolonged wintry appeal. Seems like the seasonal trend has been to shift northwest at the eleventh hour; we'll see soon enough if that continues to be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Mike Wankum @MetMikeWCVB 4m4 minutes ago Keeping my forecast snow totals the same for now, but late data points toward the low end of my estimates. Tweaking continues. #wcvb Late data from GGEM points toward higher end compared with 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Where is Bruce Schwoegler? Forget barry burbank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 How does it look better, but not more exciting? Did the surface reflection pop a nice rack? Better meaning an inch or two rather than nothing, but not the fun filled excitement of a 12"+ blockbusta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Where is Bruce Schwoegler? Forget barry burbank He's been gone for 15 years now. I believe he's in his early seventies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GIVE ME A S!!! GIVE ME A N!!! GIVE ME A O!!@@$$#/&& GIVE ME A DUBAYOU!!!!!! WHATS THAT SPELL???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Where is Bruce Schwoegler? Forget barry burbank There is a great youtube of him riling up the viewers w his tone and graphics Swells to 30'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 78 blizzard thankyou for the memo. Bruce Schwoegler is also the best meteorologist to ever grace newengland. Doesnt matter how old he is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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