CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I think wherever that initial band sets up, somewhere extremely NW of the LP center, is gonna get some nice totals but I'm even skeptical that makes it to us along the coast, DE but we'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 If you read BOX disco..they are going with the HFD cty warning because of modeled good omega/snow growth Hayden Frank is the best of the best at BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 11:47 AM, The 4 Seasons said: Latest HRRR is promising. Nice little sucker hole of RI again.....what else is new Has been modeled in various places now. It goes without saying. Seen the band to the NW, the band on the cape, and the OES that doesn't quite make it far enough setup before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 11:56 AM, The 4 Seasons said: Do you agree with BOX/OKX's decision to expand warnings and bump up totals based on what you've seen? I agree that there might be a secondary max farther west from their original warnings, which is why they expanded. But I think some areas in between may bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 If that HRRR is correct with the RI sucker hole, I'll be pretty dam upset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 12:00 PM, WesterlyWx said: If that HRRR is correct with the RI sucker hole, I'll be pretty dam upset Aren't you used to it by now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 11:59 AM, The 4 Seasons said: They are banking on the latest meso models specifically the HRRR/RAP are both bullish. I was very surprised too. To me the radar looks great. It is a little slower to move in but looks solid overall. I'm guessing you wont be changing your forecast... What I'm finding interesting is the operational HRRR is bullish, yet the experimental 24 hour HRRR (which will be operational someday soon) is bearish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 You can see the band getting better organized for the time being. We'll need that more Congealed look to overspread the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 12:02 PM, OceanStWx said: What I'm finding interesting is the operational HRRR is bullish, yet the experimental 24 hour HRRR (which will be operational someday soon) is bearish. I actually noticed that too, I thought they would be the same up to 15 hours and then just continued from 15-24 with something new but it doesn't work that way I guess. I was looking at both last night and noticed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 re: RI sucker hole, I'm a hole within a hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 12:05 PM, The 4 Seasons said: I actually noticed that too, I thought they would be the same up to 15 hours and then just continued from 15-24 with something new but it doesn't work that way I guess. I was looking at both last night and noticed it. I'm more inclined to believe the experimental version, as the operational has 4-6" back by EEN by 00z tonight. I'm not sure that's the case unless we start improving things fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 12:00 PM, Damage In Tolland said: If you read BOX disco..they are going with the HFD cty warning because of modeled good omega/snow growth Hayden Frank is the best of the best at BOX Gotcha, well hopefully it works out, I'll be happy with 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 That initial burst of winds this morning was about as impressive as it gets for still air to house rattling gusts. We are extremely lucky yesterday melted off but I did see power flashes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Think the dry air that infiltrated the area last night is going to be hard to moisten/saturate or lets say it going to take quite a bit longer than once expected! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 12:06 PM, OceanStWx said: I'm more inclined to believe the experimental version, as the operational has 4-6" back by EEN by 00z tonight. I'm not sure that's the case unless we start improving things fast. Yeah and the latest HRRR is backing off a lot, practically cutting in half. But it tends to flop around every run anyways...just not sure I buy the widespread 4-8 in CT yet. Still going to stick with my guns/original forecast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The shield seems to be making steady progress towards the West as well as up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 12:10 PM, The 4 Seasons said: Yeah and the latest HRRR is backing off a lot, practically cutting in half. But it tends to flop around every run anyways...just not sure I buy the widespread 4-8 in CT yet. Still going to stick with my guns/original forecast.. I think that's the key word. I don't buy widespread amounts pushing 4-8 today across CT, but I could see a smaller area pull that off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 12:06 PM, CNY-LES FREAK said: Think the dry air that infiltrated the area last night is going to be hard to moisten/saturate or lets say it going to take quite a bit longer than once expected!Radar should be a tease all day. I think when all is said and done we end up with the 2-4" that most had projected for this area a couple days ago. Wind will make it look more impressive at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Pretty much all schools in Franklin Co closed before a flake has fallen. It will be pretty funny if we get < 4" we got Friday when they didn't close schools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 20/-8 here Crisp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 12:27 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Pretty much all schools in Franklin Co closed before a flake has fallen. It will be pretty funny if we get > 4" we got Friday when they didn't close schools. First, I think you meant <4" Second, that is probably going to happen. Same here. Wife's district got 8" and they had school. No school today, lucky to get 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Just an amazing force of Nature right there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 12:12 PM, OceanStWx said: I think that's the key word. I don't buy widespread amounts pushing 4-8 today across CT, but I could see a smaller area pull that off. So what would be your forecast numbers for CT ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Can see the OES starting to pop. Temp is down to 22, wind is cranking. Feels like a storm, minus the snow of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 12:13 PM, PWMan said: Radar should be a tease all day. I think when all is said and done we end up with the 2-4" that most had projected for this area a couple days ago. Wind will make it look more impressive at times. I agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 12:27 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Pretty much all schools in Franklin Co closed before a flake has fallen. It will be pretty funny if we get > 4" we got Friday when they didn't close schools. Simply an over reaction due to the questionable call on Friday. I doubt we see more than 2" from this. Was much colder on the car thermometer as I headed into Worcester County (30* here to 24* as I headed toward 190). Made it all the way to 495 when I got the call the University closed. Worked out well though so my wife can go to work instead of dealing with the needlessly cancelled school day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 What a pain this storm has been to forecast...someone will probably band their way to really good totals in the interior while nearby gets barely advisory. Radar actually looks fairly decent right now, but the question is what it looks like in about 6 hours...the models kind of weaken everything around midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Based on wv, I don't see the 3-5" for ffd cty Upton is forecasting. Still like my 2" call for dxr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfenn1117 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 11:20 AM, Damage In Tolland said: I see nothing to change thoughts 2-4 w Ct 3-6 C CT to River 4-8 East of River Also agree with Will on sneaky bands way NW of models I like these amounts. People I wouldn't expect to see living and dying by every model run are doing just that. No virga to deal with either. Enjoy the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Man the ukie is close on the ivt down here. Certainly be watching the evolution of how that pushes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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