OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 4:02 AM, ryanjn said: Also, as some others have mentioned ratios most likely will be much greater than 10:1. I'm gonna go with 15:1 for most areas, maybe a little less toward SE MA. So 0.4in in Lawrence will prob yield about 6in and 1in in Plymouth maybe 13in. Maybe a saving grace for the QPF queens on the NW edge. Forecast soundings suggest the DGZ could be quite deep if you factor in salt nuclei. Anytime you approach 300 mb deep, you're talking the potential for 20:1 being more likely. Of course, wind fracturing may negate that for much of the area, but again the farther from the low center and ocean the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I imagine Box will be shaving some from their map. I don't see much support for their totals unless assuming very high ratios and/or mesoscale enhancement. Wonder if they still would've gone with blizzard warnings after seeing 18z/0z data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Euro slipping east helps me out a touch. I dont think the euro shows mixiness at the tail end given 925 850 temps etc but the gfs and the nam have ip zr at the end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Yea, 4-8 in Boston imo. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 6:03 AM, OceanStWx said: In the for what it's worth category, the NCAR ensemble seems to be headed towards a bi-modal snow distribution through 17 hours. ORH hills and SE MA for the members that have hits, but there are still a few clunkers in the bunch too. as others have mentioned, it looks like there could be a strong band along the n/w edge of the precip shield. between this and some orographic enhancement and I'd say around ORH could be a sneaky good spot. Looking at some of the meso model output ( rap, hrrr, 4 km NMM is very bullish) also show this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 6:06 AM, OceanStWx said: Maybe a saving grace for the QPF queens on the NW edge. Forecast soundings suggest the DGZ could be quite deep if you factor in salt nuclei. Anytime you approach 300 mb deep, you're talking the potential for 20:1 being more likely. Of course, wind fracturing may negate that for much of the area, but again the farther from the low center and ocean the better. This could have some weird banding in it too...wouldn't shock me if someone got like 10"+ pretty far NW but someone east of them got less than half that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 6:10 AM, wxsniss said: I imagine Box will be shaving some from their map. I don't see much support for their totals unless assuming very high ratios and/or mesoscale enhancement. Wonder if they still would've gone with blizzard warnings after seeing 18z/0z data. I mean we're still talking at least a 1500 foot mixed layer, so even BOS will probably have no issue with frequent gusts to 35 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 6:14 AM, ORH_wxman said: This could have some weird banding in it too...wouldn't shock me if someone got like 10"+ pretty far NW but someone east of them got less than half that. ARW members are definitely hinting at it. But I agree, in situations like this where lift is a little more diffuse and not widespread over the area, you can get some weird jacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 6:15 AM, OceanStWx said: I mean we're still talking at least a 1500 foot mixed layer, so even BOS will probably have no issue with frequent gusts to 35 mph. Winds I have no doubt... it's the snow rates I'm not sure will verify. We'll see... 4z HRRR looked decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Partial run here, but you can even see the two areas the ARWs are focusing in the mean product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 6:15 AM, OceanStWx said: I mean we're still talking at least a 1500 foot mixed layer, so even BOS will probably have no issue with frequent gusts to 35 mph. How would u feel about ratios with decent lift through the sgz but 30 knots sfc winds in st. Johns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 6:34 AM, OSUmetstud said: How would u feel about ratios with decent lift through the sgz but 30 knots sfc winds in st. Johns? Especially with a deep enough DGZ, I would say above climatological average. Start kicking the wind up anymore, and it's hard for me to really start thinking high ratio. Then again, how do you really measure in those conditions anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FitzWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Wind is starting to howl in the Newburyport area. Just saw 2 am obs at Boston with gust to 38. Amazing with storm so far off shore and south. With these winds, even a little amount of snow will make visibility and travel difficult in the am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 4km not pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Wow, house rattling gusts and storm isn't even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 7:58 AM, FitzWx said: Wind is starting to howl in the Newburyport area. Just saw 2 am obs at Boston with gust to 38. Amazing with storm so far off shore and south. With these winds, even a little amount of snow will make visibility and travel difficult in the am. its whistling way out here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 8:16 AM, sbos_wx said: 4km not pretty a whole lotta meh qpf outside the cape on the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 8:16 AM, sbos_wx said: 4km not prettyNeither is 7z HRRRThat Sunday 0z-12z guidance really head faked everyone, NWS and TV mets on down. Even David Epstein who's normally pretty conservative was chucking on Boston.com. We'll see how mesoscale stuff unfolds. First band of light rain kissing Nantucket right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 If we can get heaxy snow it's going to amazing with the strung winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 A lot of busts coming up if the last minute shifts come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 BOX adds Hartford and Tolland counties to the warnings for 4-8. And ups previous warned areas from 4-8 to 6-10 after being lowered from original 6-10. Gotta say with latest model trends overnight going the other way did not see that coming. I wonder what they're looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 No storm is not shifting eastward like the models are showing, it will pour snow here for a while. Blizzard conditions likely as winds gusting to 55mph reach the Cape and Islands later this morning with the heaviest snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Overnight GFS and NAM runs both showed more than 13" of snow for Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 9:02 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: No storm is not shifting eastward like the models are showing, it will pour snow here for a while. Blizzard conditions likely as winds gusting to 55mph reach the Cape and Islands later this morning with the heaviest snowfall. Already gusting to 53 mph at ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 9:03 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Overnight GFS and NAM runs both showed more than 13" of snow for Cape Cod. Good luck you deserve this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 9:02 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: No storm is not shifting eastward like the models are showing, it will pour snow here for a while. Blizzard conditions likely as winds gusting to 55mph reach the Cape and Islands later this morning with the heaviest snowfall. There were a few models in there that were pretty precarious for western areas. No one is taking your snow, but farther west there are some concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 9:04 AM, OceanStWx said: Already gusting to 53 mph at ACK. Yeah 55mph at the buoy SE of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 9:09 AM, OceanStWx said: There were a few models in there that were pretty precarious for western areas. No one is taking your snow, but farther west there are some concerns. True I forgot about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/8/2016 at 8:30 AM, wxsniss said: Neither is 7z HRRR That Sunday 0z-12z guidance really head faked everyone, NWS and TV mets on down. Even David Epstein who's normally pretty conservative was chucking on Boston.com. We'll see how mesoscale stuff unfolds. First band of light rain kissing Nantucket right now. Now S-. Bp now 28.99" at the Hatteras East buoy, with winds out of the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Man are things looking good this morning. Gonna be a wild next couple days Like Will said..watch out for big bands well NW of what some of the guidance shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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