CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 On 2/6/2016 at 9:48 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Congrats on another WSW I'm well aware of the west trends. I'm just not sold on NAM. I think that is reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 On 2/6/2016 at 9:46 PM, CoastalWx said: 18z gfs still is wide right. Better run than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 GFS is west of 12z. Only a little but nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 On 2/6/2016 at 9:50 PM, CoastalWx said: I'm well aware of the west trends. I'm just not sold on NAM. I think that is reasonable. Did you look at the rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 We power,bring it on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 On 2/6/2016 at 9:52 PM, JC-CT said: Did you look at the rgem Yea. I've seen it amped up a hr 48 too. I'm not ruling it out. Bottom line, need globals to jump at 00z. That would increase confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 On 2/6/2016 at 9:00 PM, Lava Rock said: Why does nne keep getting shafted? This could change ..dramatically actually. stand pat - it's lower probability but not 0 in this case... So don't get ur hopes up. However, there is an outside chance that the arguments we pose regarding the total wave spacing across N/A being too long in then getting corrected a bit back west. That would cause a few headaches for forecasters, no doubt! For one, it increases the phasing potential between the big trough amplitude and the SE ejected wave. ... then you'd have to consider a deeper storm, farther west, probably (in the extreme sense) backing into the mountains ... not just around here. Also, I think with that high up there ...sort of locked in for a few days, transporting easterlies into a freezing column and going up and over ridge lines, your probably good for ad hoc production from that source too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 On 2/6/2016 at 9:56 PM, CoastalWx said: Yea. I've seen it amped up a hr 48 too. I'm not ruling it out. Bottom line, need globals to jump at 00z. That would increase confidence. heh, the Euro led the way on the last one and it didn't even start until it was 36 hours - but yeah, particularly if that run comes west even a little bit, I'd be careful with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 On 2/6/2016 at 9:56 PM, CoastalWx said: Yea. I've seen it amped up a hr 48 too. I'm not ruling it out. Bottom line, need globals to jump at 00z. That would increase confidence. Just wondering because you keep mentioning the NAM but not the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 On 2/6/2016 at 9:59 PM, Typhoon Tip said: heh, the Euro led the way on the last one and it didn't even start until it was 36 hours - Ukie did actually. However, the ARPEGE is a global model and it is a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Are the Germans coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 On 2/6/2016 at 9:47 PM, Bostonseminole said: GFS has flurries for all on the first storm.. Days and days of snow. I mean flakes. On 2/6/2016 at 9:47 PM, rnaude241 said: WSW issued for EMA LOL--a bit too aggressive with that call at this time-frame. I guess they want to bust with too early a call than too late this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 On 2/6/2016 at 10:05 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Are the Germans coming? no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 On 2/6/2016 at 10:00 PM, JC-CT said: Ukie did actually. However, the ARPEGE is a global model and it is a big hit. this may sound laughably ignorant ...? what is an "ARPEGE" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 On 2/6/2016 at 10:09 PM, Typhoon Tip said: this may sound laughably ignorant ...? what is an "ARPEGE" France https://weather.gc.ca/verification/error_growth_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 On 2/6/2016 at 9:56 PM, CoastalWx said: Yea. I've seen it amped up a hr 48 too. I'm not ruling it out. Bottom line, need globals to jump at 00z. That would increase confidence. Globals won't come around . I really think they will blow this set up till Maybe tomorrow. We toss them and we snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 On 2/6/2016 at 10:05 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Are the Germans coming?12z was wide right, 18z isn't out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 On 2/6/2016 at 10:13 PM, JC-CT said: France https://weather.gc.ca/verification/error_growth_e.html France ... oh lord, what next. Has Uganda released their version of this thing yet - haha. Okay, well... I can't actually find the product that you have in mind, using that link... Looks like a head page to a bunch models but I don't know where the nested links are. I'll just take your words for it I guess - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 On 2/6/2016 at 10:16 PM, Typhoon Tip said: France ... oh lord, what next. Has Uganda released their version of this thing yet - haha. Okay, well... I can't actually find the product that you have in mind, using that link... Looks like a head page to a bunch models but I don't know where the nested links are. I'll just take your words for it I guess - It's verification scores collected by the cmc, there are no links there. It's available on meteocentre, as well as the german (dwd) model which doesn't have great scores but was along with the ukie for this last bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Tip- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 New moon not that snow crowd cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 On 2/6/2016 at 10:22 PM, Ginx snewx said: New moon not that snow crowd cares At least you've figured it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 On 2/6/2016 at 10:22 PM, Ginx snewx said: New moon not that snow crowd cares The Old Farmer's Almanac concurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Why would anyone think that the NAM nailed the last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Seems like after quickly perusing PM data and reading thru here it's at minimum a 2-4 inch event just thru Monday night from the river to RI border and 3-6+ from there East. With more to come Tuesday into Wed My inkling is to extend that 2-4 back to NY border and 3-6 to river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 guys... does it really matter who says what, first ? anywho - i have no personal experience with France or Germany throwing their technological 2-cents into the fray of global models. who knows. do you guys know that about 3 days ago, that frankenmodel NAVGEM has a blizzard from NYC to PWM - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Whats 12 or 18z Navgem 18z 4k nam looks mighty fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 On 2/6/2016 at 10:37 PM, N. OF PIKE said: Whats 12 or 18z Navgem 18z 4k nam looks mighty fine Navgem gets decent snows into most of SNE/Most east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 On 2/6/2016 at 9:47 PM, rnaude241 said: WSW issued for EMAI'm under a coastal flood watch too. That would be some serious flooding at 225' here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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