HoarfrostHubb Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Any port in a storm. I really had written this off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 KFS enhancement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Well my 11" of snow to date may beg to differ....but yeah, I know what you mean (like the last 5 years coming into this winter) Haha yeah we are all doing horribly but I'm getting the feeling at the end of the season the closest to normal will be like Ginxy to BOS, SE Mass and the Cape. Pure WAG. Of course NYC and mid-Atlantic will also be from one storm alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 KFS enhancement It's snow ratio definitely has a high bias. That Euro does pop an H8 low off the Cape, but as Will said, without that strong inflow we're not chucking a ton of QPF back to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Where can you see individual frames?I do weatherbell for the navgem and meteocentre for the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Haha yeah we are all doing horribly but I'm getting the feeling at the end of the season the closest to normal will be like Ginxy to BOS, SE Mass and the Cape. Pure WAG. Of course NYC and mid-Atlantic will also be from one storm alone. cool only 42 more to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It's snow ratio definitely has a high bias. That Euro does pop an H8 low off the Cape, but as Will said, without that strong inflow we're not chucking a ton of QPF back to the west. Yeah. I'm not getting worked up about this but a nice coating would make my yard look better BOX still has me mostly sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 How about them 15z SREFs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Looks like it might even whiten the ground here. Better than brown/green! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I do weatherbell for the navgem and meteocentre for the JMA. Navgem is available on a few places including the Navy site. I meant the 12z JMA specifically, it isn't out on meteocentre yet so I didn't know what he was basing his post on, maybe the 24 hour panels from TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 cool only 42 more to go "Closest to normal"....not necessarily normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It's snow ratio definitely has a high bias. That Euro does pop an H8 low off the Cape, but as Will said, without that strong inflow we're not chucking a ton of QPF back to the west. I want to see a bit more negative tilt and consolidated vort energy at the base of the trough before getting too excited. (as in, widespread 3"+ amounts)...you can easily get one of those situations where we are struggling to maintain the precip shield on the western periphery and you get 6-8 hours of snow, but it's not that heavy...and marginal temps will not be friendly to that scenario. I'd certainly feel more confident down in SE MA that we can get a period of moderate to heavy snow for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Any Euro love NW of 495? from wunderground .. missing the last panel which may or may not be showing total precip? (posted after the gif) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Yeah. I'm not getting worked up about this but a nice coating would make my yard look better BOX still has me mostly sunny Euro is 0.2-.25" QPF over 12 hours for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 KFS enhancement That was a broad statement, It goes from 1" at the Western MA border to 10" on the SE coast, Pretty sharp cutoff west of ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro ensembles naturally with a shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro ensembles naturally with a shift west. Almost a half inch of qpf for BOS on the ensembles. Quarter inch back to CT Valley or even slightly west...so there's probably a few weenie members in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Someone on the wrn edge may get a real nice surprise. Just looks like one of those classic elongated deformation bands on the NW edge of the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro is 0.2-.25" QPF over 12 hours for you. 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Yeah. I'm not getting worked up about this but a nice coating would make my yard look better BOX still has me mostly sunny Yeah, they have a very sharp NW edge to PoP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Almost a half inch of qpf for BOS on the ensembles. Quarter inch back to CT Valley or even slightly west...so there's probably a few weenie members in there. I still have that nagging feeling of an east tick last minute, but maybe this is one of those deals where the s/w and dynamics are just enough to actually have a decent event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I still have that nagging feeling of an east tick last minute, but maybe this is one of those deals where the s/w and dynamics are just enough to actually have a decent event? I'm worried about sucking exhaust from a fronto band in SE MA...like we initially see the precip shield look reall good and pretty far NW and then it kind of constricts to the SE as a 30-35 dbz band sets up from UUU-GHG and we're stuck with fumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Watch this become the real snow event and next week fall apart. I'll take my chances on this 2 days away rather than some 7-8 day threat. I'm still cautious..... But this is starting to look like it could be a nice event down this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Anything still on for Tuesday? This one looks kind of like a snoozer for those of us inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Well, We could use a few more toggles west for this to be anything more then some wet flakes for the folks further north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I want to see a bit more negative tilt and consolidated vort energy at the base of the trough before getting too excited. (as in, widespread 3"+ amounts)...you can easily get one of those situations where we are struggling to maintain the precip shield on the western periphery and you get 6-8 hours of snow, but it's not that heavy...and marginal temps will not be friendly to that scenario. I'd certainly feel more confident down in SE MA that we can get a period of moderate to heavy snow for a few hours. Keep an eye on the convection across the Gulf tomorrow. If it's strong enough and in the right orientation, maybe we get increase the southerly flow ahead of that shortwave. Instead of a more SW to NE orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I'll take my chances on this 2 days away rather than some 7-8 day threat. I'm still cautious..... But this is starting to look like it could be a nice event down this way Wouldn't be the first time a closer in threat has materialized to be the real show while everyone was focused on something days later. That 12z EURO really crushed SE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Difference between the 12z GFS and ECM are quite staggering though if trying to make a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I'm worried about sucking exhaust from a fronto band in SE MA...like we initially see the precip shield look reall good and pretty far NW and then it kind of constricts to the SE as a 30-35 dbz band sets up from UUU-GHG and we're stuck with fumes. Guess this is on, pretty solid consensus with a majority of the members looking like the op with the outliers of course big and small, no misses I can see. A cluster would probably look like the op with about 20% reduction in qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 I'm not worried about nor expecting any shifts east. In fact, I'd bet on another shift west happens st 18z and 00z with that stout ridging. A met this morning said its late in game to be using Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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