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The AnaFront/Coastal Storm Disco 02/05/16


Damage In Tolland

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Well my 11" of snow to date may beg to differ....but yeah, I know what you mean (like the last 5 years coming into this winter) :lol:

Haha yeah we are all doing horribly but I'm getting the feeling at the end of the season the closest to normal will be like Ginxy to BOS, SE Mass and the Cape.

Pure WAG.

Of course NYC and mid-Atlantic will also be from one storm alone.

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It's snow ratio definitely has a high bias.

 

That Euro does pop an H8 low off the Cape, but as Will said, without that strong inflow we're not chucking a ton of QPF back to the west.

Yeah.  I'm not getting worked up about this but a nice coating would make my yard look better     BOX still has me mostly sunny

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I do weatherbell for the navgem and meteocentre for the JMA.

 

Navgem is available on a few places including the Navy site. I meant the 12z JMA specifically, it isn't out on meteocentre yet so I didn't know what he was basing his post on, maybe the 24 hour panels from TT.

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It's snow ratio definitely has a high bias.

 

That Euro does pop an H8 low off the Cape, but as Will said, without that strong inflow we're not chucking a ton of QPF back to the west.

 

I want to see a bit more negative tilt and consolidated vort energy at the base of the trough before getting too excited. (as in, widespread 3"+ amounts)...you can easily get one of those situations where we are struggling to maintain the precip shield on the western periphery and you get 6-8 hours of snow, but it's not that heavy...and marginal temps will not be friendly to that scenario.

 

I'd certainly feel more confident down in SE MA that we can get a period of moderate to heavy snow for a few hours.

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Almost a half inch of qpf for BOS on the ensembles. Quarter inch back to CT Valley or even slightly west...so there's probably a few weenie members in there.

 

I still have that nagging feeling of an east tick last minute, but maybe this is one of those deals where the s/w and dynamics are just enough to actually have a decent event?

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I still have that nagging feeling of an east tick last minute, but maybe this is one of those deals where the s/w and dynamics are just enough to actually have a decent event?

 

I'm worried about sucking exhaust from a fronto band in SE MA...like we initially see the precip shield look reall good and pretty far NW and then it kind of constricts to the SE as a 30-35 dbz band sets up from UUU-GHG and we're stuck with fumes.

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I want to see a bit more negative tilt and consolidated vort energy at the base of the trough before getting too excited. (as in, widespread 3"+ amounts)...you can easily get one of those situations where we are struggling to maintain the precip shield on the western periphery and you get 6-8 hours of snow, but it's not that heavy...and marginal temps will not be friendly to that scenario.

 

I'd certainly feel more confident down in SE MA that we can get a period of moderate to heavy snow for a few hours.

 

Keep an eye on the convection across the Gulf tomorrow. If it's strong enough and in the right orientation, maybe we get increase the southerly flow ahead of that shortwave. Instead of a more SW to NE orientation.

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I'll take my chances on this 2 days away rather than some 7-8 day threat.

I'm still cautious..... But this is starting to look like it could be a nice event down this way

Wouldn't be the first time a closer in threat has materialized to be the real show while everyone was focused on something days later.

That 12z EURO really crushed SE Mass.

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I'm worried about sucking exhaust from a fronto band in SE MA...like we initially see the precip shield look reall good and pretty far NW and then it kind of constricts to the SE as a 30-35 dbz band sets up from UUU-GHG and we're stuck with fumes.

Guess this is on, pretty solid consensus with a majority of the members looking like the op with the outliers of course big and small, no misses I can see. A cluster would probably look like the op with about 20% reduction in qpf

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