CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looked like it was a bit more intense for that area than the 12z run. Someone might get destroyed for about 4 hours. The 128 belt looks prime...though everyone in general around that area will get hit hard. But there could def be a sweet spot somewhere just W of BOS down into N RI. Yeah that's how I feel too. It will depend on whether that RASN line slows down a bit near BOS before advancing S, or does it just steadily march SE. But I think most people at some point from maybe 14z-18z or so will really rip. That's when the real good mid level forcing comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Euro is a crusher for ern CT into eastern MA after 12z tomorrow. Most intense solution now. One more bump nw would be nice lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Euro is a crusher for ern CT into eastern MA after 12z tomorrow. Scott what's your thinking for Boston near Logan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 There is pretty massive dPVA in this which makes me nervous that there could be like a 2-3" per hour band for a time. The general low end warning amounts I think are the right call and the safer call, but the different dynamics in this all argue that if there is a bust, it is likely to be in the positive direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Scott what's your thinking for Boston near Logan? I have pretty good confidence in 6-8 or so. If somehow they got into a real good band..might be more..but I think that works for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Did the euro bump nw overall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I have pretty good confidence in 6-8 or so. If somehow they got into a real good band..might be more..but I think that works for them. Thanks, not going to lie this rain does scare me a bit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yeah that's how I feel too. It will depend on whether that RASN line slows down a bit near BOS before advancing S, or does it just steadily march SE. But I think most people at some point from maybe 14z-18z or so will really rip. That's when the real good mid level forcing comes in. Man, I'd watch that 15z timeframe...we get the ML fronto and probably our best chance at -EPV...and the tail end of that period is when we have insane dPVA, so there could be fireworks finale... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 There is pretty massive dPVA in this which makes me nervous that there could be like a 2-3" per hour band for a time. The general low end warning amounts I think are the right call and the safer call, but the different dynamics in this all argue that if there is a bust, it is likely to be in the positive direction. That's what the HRRR does. Gets sick rates in here after 15z. You can see it in the RH fields, it has a mini commahead look by late morning. It's gonna rip when that s/w moves in. Someone may eek out 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Thanks, not going to lie this rain does scare me a bit though. They'll flip 6-7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Man, I'd watch that 15z timeframe...we get the ML fronto and probably our best chance at -EPV...and the tail end of that period is when we have insane dPVA, so there could be fireworks finale... All those line up in that timeframe. Should be a fun period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Ended up sneaking onto the floor for Springsteen. Amazing concert as always. No band is better. sleet hit my head at 11pm but I am now in a bar drinking until I can't see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Will be fun watching the snow race to the coast, it'll make for some productive work out of the home office. I'd love to think I wake up to flakes mixing in, but I tend to think it'll be later, a thump, and then waving goodbye. Just north of here will do better. Like the idea of a Pulaski mini jackpot in NW RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Euro is a crusher for ern CT into eastern MA after 12z tomorrow. That looks beautiful. Someone from here to ORh to FOX will get 12-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 That looks beautiful. Someone from here to ORh to FOX will get 12-15 Should be easy school cancellation decisions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Should be easy school cancellation decisions... Yeah pretty much every district shutdown you'd think. My wife teaches in Ashford. Call will be coming soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yeah pretty much every district shutdown you'd think. My wife teaches in Ashford. Call will be coming soon Yep... should be an easy call in Ashford... not one of my districts but I would not think anyone challenges this given timing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Let's hope we verify together SRAirglow and I went 1-3 NW. I was worried about the western extent of the good precip. I was also a bit concerned about temps far SE. 3-6 would be nice up there. NW has been snake bit this season. Seriously... I have 5.5" ytd. Past two years living in Winsted had around 90" total...so needless to say, unless we get hammered from here out, I will not reach that...climo for here is around 60-70" depending on which historical you go by, I am yearning for an at least 12+ storm or even warning criteria snow, that said I'm sticking with my 1-3 for my area. Been under decent returns for a few hours and have a dusting, snow has since picked up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 New ALY map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Nice looking 700 mb frontogenesis analysis from SPC meso page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Should be easy school cancellation decisions... Really easy decision. All school all the time in GC. It no longer snows where it's supposed to. Enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Really easy decision. All school all the time in GC. It no longer snows where it's supposed to. Enjoy it. As a massive band of S+ sits over your head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 As a massive band of S+ sits over your head Meh. Enjoy it. 2-3" will be a gift to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Really easy decision. All school all the time in GC. It no longer snows where it's supposed to. Enjoy it. As a massive band of S+ sits over your headRight? Kinda floored that the wife/kids have school today. I mean, it's not like we've burnt tons of snow days already. Roads I'm sure are greasy as hell. Radar looks good. This i daresay could over-perform. Plow just went by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Right? Kinda floored that the wife/kids have school today. I mean, it's not like we've burnt tons of snow days already. Roads I'm sure are greasy as hell. Radar looks good. This i daresay could over-perform. Plow just went by. Glad you guys are finally getting some good snows. Way overdue and you deserve it. Enjoy man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Really easy decision. All school all the time in GC. It no longer snows where it's supposed to. Enjoy it. As much as I whine about not being in the "jack pot" zone anymore, you guys have fared far worse. Hopefully we get a couple PVD to BOS runners where you pound and just east is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 3 of the 4 districts in my house called off school My wife's stupidly has a 1/2 day. The will be busing kids when roads are the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Glad you guys are finally getting some good snows. Way overdue and you deserve it. Enjoy manThanks, you too! Un-freakin believable that there's school. I mean, wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 3 of the 4 districts in my house called off school My wife's stupidly has a 1/2 day. The will be busing kids when roads are the worst That's idiotic -- I could sort of see the logic behind a delayed opening but a half day here makes absolutely no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I think that the west trends went unseen by many school districts. Either their information is bad/outdated, or they dint know how to interpret radar, or they're just idiots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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