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The AnaFront/Coastal Storm Disco 02/05/16


Damage In Tolland

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Looked like it was a bit more intense for that area than the 12z run.

 

Someone might get destroyed for about 4 hours. The 128 belt looks prime...though everyone in general around that area will get hit hard. But there could def be a sweet spot somewhere just W of BOS down into N RI.

 

Yeah that's how I feel too. It will depend on whether that RASN line slows down a bit near BOS before advancing S, or does it just steadily march SE. But I think most people at some point from maybe 14z-18z or so will really rip. That's when the real good mid level forcing comes in.

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There is pretty massive dPVA in this which makes me nervous that there could be like a 2-3" per hour band for a time.

 

 

The general low end warning amounts I think are the right call and the safer call, but the different dynamics in this all argue that if there is a bust, it is likely to be in the positive direction.

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Yeah that's how I feel too. It will depend on whether that RASN line slows down a bit near BOS before advancing S, or does it just steadily march SE. But I think most people at some point from maybe 14z-18z or so will really rip. That's when the real good mid level forcing comes in.

 

 

Man, I'd watch that 15z timeframe...we get the ML fronto and probably our best chance at -EPV...and the tail end of that period is when we have insane dPVA, so there could be fireworks finale...

 

gfs_frontb5.png

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There is pretty massive dPVA in this which makes me nervous that there could be like a 2-3" per hour band for a time.

 

 

The general low end warning amounts I think are the right call and the safer call, but the different dynamics in this all argue that if there is a bust, it is likely to be in the positive direction.

 

That's what the HRRR does. Gets sick rates in here after 15z. You can see it in the RH fields, it has a mini commahead look by late morning. It's gonna rip when that s/w moves in.  Someone may eek out 8-12.

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Will be fun watching the snow race to the coast, it'll make for some productive work out of the home office.  I'd love to think I wake up to flakes mixing in, but I tend to think it'll be later, a thump, and then waving goodbye.  Just north of here will do better.  Like the idea of a Pulaski mini jackpot in NW RI. 

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Let's hope we verify together :)

SRAirglow and I went 1-3 NW. I was worried about the western extent of the good precip. I was also a bit concerned about temps far SE. 3-6 would be nice up there. NW has been snake bit this season.

Seriously... I have 5.5" ytd. Past two years living in Winsted had around 90" total...so needless to say, unless we get hammered from here out, I will not reach that...climo for here is around 60-70" depending on which historical you go by, I am yearning for an at least 12+ storm or even warning criteria snow, that said I'm sticking with my 1-3 for my area. Been under decent returns for a few hours and have a dusting, snow has since picked up a bit.

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Really easy decision. All school all the time in GC. It no longer snows where it's supposed to.

Enjoy it.

As a massive band of S+ sits over your head

Right?

Kinda floored that the wife/kids have school today. I mean, it's not like we've burnt tons of snow days already. Roads I'm sure are greasy as hell.

Radar looks good. This i daresay could over-perform. Plow just went by.

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Right?

Kinda floored that the wife/kids have school today. I mean, it's not like we've burnt tons of snow days already. Roads I'm sure are greasy as hell.

Radar looks good. This i daresay could over-perform. Plow just went by.

Glad you guys are finally getting some good snows. Way overdue and you deserve it. Enjoy man

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