8611Blizz Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 He probably didn't have rgem or gfs yet. I bet it would have been higher. Takes time to create the graphics. Yeah I was thinking that too. Amazing to see the differences in even the weekly forecasts. Harvey is 20s by next Wednesday and channel 7 is upper 40s near 50 for same days, Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Yeah I was thinking that too. Amazing to see the differences in even the weekly forecasts. Harvey is 20s by next Wednesday and channel 7 is upper 40s near 50 for same days, Weird. Channel 7 is a hellhole. Can't wait for NBC Boston to take over the NBC Universal affiliation. It's a shame Bouchard went to NECN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 least we forget our newest Tagged Degreed member Rev Kev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Anyway, back on topic. That is a ridiculous QPF dump. Do we believe it? Jesus H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Anyway, back on topic. That is a ridiculous QPF dump. Do we believe it? Jesus H.I think it is a little overdone, but there is a lot of juice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Have to hit the ceiling on this one at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 least we forget our newest Tagged Degreed member Rev Kev Will they give me Red? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I don't know what model the future radar on intellicast is based off of, but it is comical how far east it is compared to the actual radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Will they give me Red? Scoot actually owes you his degree, doesn't he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 Scoot actually owes you his degree, doesn't he? The minute they see me they fear me..I'm the epitome..a public enemy Just a classic rap line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I just nuked my map after I saw the GFS -- going all in for this one. Will post the revised map when I get home and make it but I'm going to bring warning amounts to HVN-BDL roughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Ahh...I'm starting to hear the "I didn't even know it was going to snow" chatter as people are leaving. Along with the "it was 54 degrees yesterday!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 least we forget our newest Tagged Degreed member Rev Kev https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IY2ncDX3f-A Well done, Ginxy. Not enough credit given sometimes. (Though he needs no help) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Will they give me Red? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vQaVIoEjOM "I don't like to brag, and I don't mean to boast..." Sugar Hill, baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Anyone care to comment on why we are seeing such a pronounced late shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Any more inflated head and he'll seizure out before winter ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 Any more inflated head and he'll seizure out before winter ends. On the contrary. i am very humbled to even be amongst all that are here. I enjoy the thrill of the chase..i thrive off of it. I have this out on FB as final call 3-5 western 1/3 of CT 4-7 Central Ct 7-10 river east with 10+ possible in higher hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 On the contrary. i am very humbled to even be amongst all that are here. I enjoy the thrill of the chase..i thrive off of it. I have this out on FB as final call 3-5 western 1/3 of CT 4-7 Central Ct 7-10 river east with 10+ possible in higher hills. What did your mom and cousin think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Anyone care to comment on why we are seeing such a pronounced late shift? Mid Atlantic Ridge flexing its muscle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 On the contrary. i am very humbled to even be amongst all that are here. I enjoy the thrill of the chase..i thrive off of it. I have this out on FB as final call 3-5 western 1/3 of CT 4-7 Central Ct 7-10 river east with 10+ possible in higher hills. I'm joshing with you.Love the chase, addicting...it's like 3/4 the battle for me. Anyway, good call. Like the amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 MPM to double seasonal totalMeanwhile, to the north of him, its a battle between me and Eyewall over which one of us gets to take over his Eeyore avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 4PM BOX DISCUSSION:OVERVIEW AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...INCLUDING TIMING... UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TAKING ON STRONG NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET TO DEVELOP COASTAL LOW PRES WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE. LATEST TRENDS ALL MAKE A MUCH CLOSER PASS WITH THIS WAVE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND GIVEN IT HAS A DIRECT CONNECTION TO BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...THE QPF FIELD IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FURTHER W THAN PREVIOUS PROGS. QPF IS GENERALLY WELL AGREED UPON AT THIS POINT...AT ODDS ARE THE LOW LVL THERMAL PROFILES AND HOW QUICKLY/EFFICIENTLY THEY ARE ABLE TO COOL. WHILE TIMING OF THE TROWAL OVERHEAD IS WELL AGREED UPON...WITH PRECIP BEGINNING ALONG SE MA ROUND 10PM...THEN SPREADING NW THROUGH ABOUT 2-4AM. HOW QUICKLY IT CHANGES TO SNOW MAINLY AFTER 4AM IS THE PRIMARY QUESTION. SFC WET-BULBS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...WHICH ARE MARGINAL. EXPECT GRADUAL CHANGE ACROSS WRN MA/CT BETWEEN 2-5AM...CENTRAL...NORTHEAST MA AND RI BETWEEN 4 AM AND 7AM...THEN BETWEEN 7 AM AND MID-DAY FOR SE MA. THE TIMING WILL HAVE MUCH TO DO WITH THE FINAL TOTALS...BUT GIVEN STRONG F-GEN ABOUT H6 YIELDING LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGIME AROUND H5...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO OVERCOME THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. HENCE THE RISK FOR HEAVY...WET SNOW DURING THE AM COMMUTE FOR MANY. QPF AND SNOWFALL... VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...THE SAME THAT BROUGHT THE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. LOOKING AT 1.0-1.25 INCH PWATS /NEARLY 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ STRONG F-GEN COMBINED WITH MODERATE LLJ WILL YIELD QPF VALUES RANGING FROM THE 0.25 INCHES ACROSS WRN MA/CT TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH+ IN EASTERN MA. SNOWFALL BASED ON THIS QPF IS TRICKY FOR THE THERMAL REGIONS MENTIONED ABOVE. CHANGE-OVER TIMING AND LOW RATIOS ARE LIMITING THE POTENTIAL THIS STORM WOULD OTHERWISE HAVE. HIGHER RATIOS WILL BE WHERE LOWER QPF IS OBSERVED AND VICE-VERSA. THE PEAK OVERLAP IS FROM NE CT INTO NRN RI AND EASTERN MA...WHERE FINAL TOTALS OF 6-8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 3-6 POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CENTRAL MA/CT...SOUTHERN RI AND PORTIONS OF SE MA WITH LESS ON THE OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE FACT THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN THE LONGEST. IMPACTS... DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND 40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM. THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK. THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY EARLY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 BOX has 2-4" for my location in Bristol, and doesn't expect the snow to fully change over until 1PM according to the point-and-click forecast. Definitely a conservative forecast down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com One more update after 00z review. I think the GFS is overdoing the rain on the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 BOX has 2-4" for my location in Bristol, and doesn't expect the snow to fully change over until 1PM according to the point-and-click forecast. Definitely a conservative forecast down here. I don't think one model shows that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 BOX is also going low ratios. Which I don't know, I guess helps them verify but also doesn't convey the more impactful nature of the snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Gonna be nice to see parachutes, not the grainy sand stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Anyone care to comment on why we are seeing such a pronounced late shift? WAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I mean, they have me at an 86% chance of greater than 0.1". So a 14% chance of less than 0.1"? There's no support for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 BOX is also going low ratios. Which I don't know, I guess helps them verify but also doesn't convey the more impactful nature of the snowfall. 7-10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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