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The AnaFront/Coastal Storm Disco 02/05/16


Damage In Tolland

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He probably didn't have rgem or gfs yet. I bet it would have been higher. Takes time to create the graphics.

Yeah I was thinking that too.  Amazing to see the differences in even the weekly forecasts. Harvey is 20s by next Wednesday and channel 7 is upper 40s near 50 for same days,  Weird.

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Any more inflated head and he'll seizure out before winter ends.

On the contrary. i am very humbled to even be amongst all that are here.

 

I enjoy the thrill of the chase..i thrive off of it.

 

I have this out on FB as final call

 

3-5 western 1/3 of CT

4-7 Central Ct

7-10 river east with 10+ possible in higher hills.

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On the contrary. i am very humbled to even be amongst all that are here.

 

I enjoy the thrill of the chase..i thrive off of it.

 

I have this out on FB as final call

 

3-5 western 1/3 of CT

4-7 Central Ct

7-10 river east with 10+ possible in higher hills.

 

What did your mom and cousin think?

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On the contrary. i am very humbled to even be amongst all that are here.

I enjoy the thrill of the chase..i thrive off of it.

I have this out on FB as final call

3-5 western 1/3 of CT

4-7 Central Ct

7-10 river east with 10+ possible in higher hills.

I'm joshing with you.

Love the chase, addicting...it's like 3/4 the battle for me.

Anyway, good call. Like the amounts.

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4PM BOX DISCUSSION:

OVERVIEW AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...INCLUDING TIMING...

UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TAKING ON STRONG NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET TO
DEVELOP COASTAL LOW PRES WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
OFFSHORE. LATEST TRENDS ALL MAKE A MUCH CLOSER PASS WITH THIS WAVE
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND GIVEN IT HAS A DIRECT CONNECTION TO
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...THE QPF FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD FURTHER W THAN PREVIOUS PROGS. QPF IS GENERALLY
WELL AGREED UPON AT THIS POINT...AT ODDS ARE THE LOW LVL THERMAL
PROFILES AND HOW QUICKLY/EFFICIENTLY THEY ARE ABLE TO COOL. WHILE
TIMING OF THE TROWAL OVERHEAD IS WELL AGREED UPON...WITH PRECIP
BEGINNING ALONG SE MA ROUND 10PM...THEN SPREADING NW THROUGH ABOUT
2-4AM. HOW QUICKLY IT CHANGES TO SNOW MAINLY AFTER 4AM IS THE
PRIMARY QUESTION. SFC WET-BULBS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S...WHICH ARE MARGINAL. EXPECT GRADUAL CHANGE ACROSS WRN MA/CT
BETWEEN 2-5AM...CENTRAL...NORTHEAST MA AND RI BETWEEN 4 AM AND
7AM...THEN BETWEEN 7 AM AND MID-DAY FOR SE MA. THE TIMING WILL
HAVE MUCH TO DO WITH THE FINAL TOTALS...BUT GIVEN STRONG F-GEN
ABOUT H6 YIELDING LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGIME AROUND
H5...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO
OVERCOME THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. HENCE THE RISK FOR
HEAVY...WET SNOW DURING THE AM COMMUTE FOR MANY.
 
QPF AND SNOWFALL...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...THE SAME THAT BROUGHT THE
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. LOOKING AT 1.0-1.25 INCH PWATS
/NEARLY 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ STRONG F-GEN COMBINED WITH
MODERATE LLJ WILL YIELD QPF VALUES RANGING FROM THE 0.25 INCHES
ACROSS WRN MA/CT TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH+ IN EASTERN MA. SNOWFALL
BASED ON THIS QPF IS TRICKY FOR THE THERMAL REGIONS MENTIONED
ABOVE. CHANGE-OVER TIMING AND LOW RATIOS ARE LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL THIS STORM WOULD OTHERWISE HAVE. HIGHER RATIOS WILL BE
WHERE LOWER QPF IS OBSERVED AND VICE-VERSA. THE PEAK OVERLAP IS
FROM NE CT INTO NRN RI AND EASTERN MA...WHERE FINAL TOTALS OF 6-8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 3-6 POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CENTRAL
MA/CT...SOUTHERN RI AND PORTIONS OF SE MA WITH LESS ON THE OUTER
ARM OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE FACT THESE AREAS WILL
REMAIN RAIN THE LONGEST.
 
IMPACTS...
DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ
AROUND 40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.
 
THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.
 
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS
END BY EARLY EVENING.
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