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The AnaFront/Coastal Storm Disco 02/05/16


Damage In Tolland

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My (very) unprofessional assessment is probably off and maybe I shouldn't be focusing on the dew point for this type of event - but when I see a dew point in the upper 30's and not budging (except for one nudge up) that has a history of not always boding well for much snow down this way.

But then again - my meteorological 'education' ends at watching John Ghiorse on channel 10 for 30 years and living next to the ocean for 50!

 

 

You'll probably be raining heavily for a time...but then it will just flip to parachutes and you'll get smoked for a few hours. RGEM has you flipping around 7-8am. NAM is similar...around 8am.

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I think you and I end up in the 7-10" range

 

That could happen but I'm thinking at the moment it would be closer to the low end of your range...probably close to 6" but we'll see.  That's my call ATTM.

 

If Enfield gets the banding that most models are showing, it's 3-6 as we WETBULB down to freezing. If the rates aren't there than yes 1-3.

 

We'll see how it sets up.  I just don't think the western fringe is going to do that well and for a time I could see rain there while it's snowing at higher elevations.

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My (very) unprofessional assessment is probably off and maybe I shouldn't be focusing on the dew point for this type of event - but when I see a dew point in the upper 30's and not budging (except for one nudge up) that has a history of not always boding well for much snow down this way.

But then again - my meteorological 'education' ends at watching John Ghiorse on channel 10 for 30 years and living next to the ocean for 50!

 

Check the Nam soundings on Pivotal Weather. It's cold overhead.

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My (very) unprofessional assessment is probably off and maybe I shouldn't be focusing on the dew point for this type of event - but when I see a dew point in the upper 30's and not budging (except for one nudge up) that has a history of not always boding well for much snow down this way.

But then again - my meteorological 'education' ends at watching John Ghiorse on channel 10 for 30 years and living next to the ocean for 50!

One look says your name is thumpy

post-322-0-42643700-1454621008_thumb.png

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There could be a crazy band in there somewhere...the way this is trending, you're going to have probably a nice stripe of -EPV as Tip mentioned and overlaid on the fronto....so don't be shocked to get a really intense band for a time.

With that -EPV instability, might the possibility of a few rumbles show up? Also, at what height is the strongest fronto?

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You'll probably be raining heavily for a time...but then it will just flip to parachutes and you'll get smoked for a few hours. RGEM has you flipping around 7-8am. NAM is similar...around 8am.

Thanks. I respect your knowledge and education. (And I'll ignore the now 2 degree dew point rise in the last hour… lol).

Seriously - thanks for the info.. I'll be reporting my obs starting in the morning.

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