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The AnaFront/Coastal Storm Disco 02/05/16


Damage In Tolland

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Hopefully that will settle down those with the watch/warning fetish.

 

Meh, the whole thing is going to get blown up eventually.

 

Nobody understands the difference between watches and warnings anyway, let alone a warning and an advisory. Unless you live in OKC that is.

 

I mean how often do you hear, "WFO XYZ downgraded me from a watch to an advisory"

 

That's not a downgrade, that's an upgrade, to a product that says it is imminent or occurring now. And advisory snow can be just as dangerous as warning snow, especially timing and duration.

So yes, the system will change, but chances are people will still be upset with it.

 

This event highlights a few of those issues.

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I can tell you the maps on the website right now are not their latest. It takes some time occasionally for these scripts to send everything to the web.

The probability maps/tables don't match the expected amount map. They say they updated at 10:30 this morning.
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Although again, on the Ukie there is quite a bit of wasted qpf from a line just SE of BOS-PVD.

Still hammers, but I wouldn't be surprised to see similar snowfall totals out this way.

If one was to believe that up here we probably would not waste much of that here, But want to see the Euro jump first

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actually ...that may not be the case.  you may hear them either way.

 

i've noticed this year to year (indulge the OT for a moment...) that birds tend to chirp suddenly around the first of Feb, and. ..they do so even during snow storms.  last year during some of those Feb blitzes i heard birds outside my window as the dark of night succumbed to the first light of the mornings. it evoked thoughts and sentiments of april as i climbed out of slumber, thinking also the storm supposedly in hand must had missed.  only to see white out when peering out the window.  ..weird...

 

i think it is species dependent - tru -but also, i think they trigger based around the solar rad returning.  that's my hunch. light earlier means start arguing about who gets spring-lade.

Agreed.

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Meh, the whole thing is going to get blown up eventually.

 

Nobody understands the difference between watches and warnings anyway, let alone a warning and an advisory. Unless you live in OKC that is.

 

I mean how often do you hear, "WFO XYZ downgraded me from a watch to an advisory"

 

That's not a downgrade, that's an upgrade, to a product that says it is imminent or occurring now. And advisory snow can be just as dangerous as warning snow, especially timing and duration.

So yes, the system will change, but chances are people will still be upset with it.

 

This event highlights a few of those issues.

If an advisory is issued following a watch, it is reasonably interpreted to mean that the event is expected to have less impact than it was previously thought it could have.

 

Watches obviously aren't typically issued for events that are expected to stay below the warning threshold.  So I think your upgrade, downgrade comment is misleading.  Technically the issuance of a new advisory portends a now imminent (previously uncertain) impact, but the magnitude of the potential impacts have been downgraded.

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