dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I know, I was looking at the precip frames on meteocentre for today's 12z. It's west. It looks like its tracking the low inside the BM now or dam close to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Hopefully that will settle down those with the watch/warning fetish. Don't tell me you don't enjoy being deep in the pink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 MPM come back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 honestly ... this thing deepens steadily in the guidance' now as it's leaving coastal cyclogenesis... dipping beneath 960mb leaving the vicinity of the lower Maritimes at this point... can we get over calling this an ANA event - thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Hopefully that will settle down those with the watch/warning fetish. Meh, the whole thing is going to get blown up eventually. Nobody understands the difference between watches and warnings anyway, let alone a warning and an advisory. Unless you live in OKC that is. I mean how often do you hear, "WFO XYZ downgraded me from a watch to an advisory" That's not a downgrade, that's an upgrade, to a product that says it is imminent or occurring now. And advisory snow can be just as dangerous as warning snow, especially timing and duration. So yes, the system will change, but chances are people will still be upset with it. This event highlights a few of those issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 So BOX changed their probability maps and expected amount tables...still really unimpressive. I can tell you the maps on the website right now are not their latest. It takes some time occasionally for these scripts to send everything to the web. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I can tell you the maps on the website right now are not their latest. It takes some time occasionally for these scripts to send everything to the web.The probability maps/tables don't match the expected amount map. They say they updated at 10:30 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 12z Ukie qpf, In case some cant do the math, 25.4 mm is 1".......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 MPM come back The Ukie would indicate 2-4" back here. Skeptical but if this blows up and keeps ticking west who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The probability maps/tables don't match the expected amount map. They say they updated at 10:30 this morning. It'll change. We can instantly update the web, and to make matters worse we have to send everything through another office first before it hits the interwebs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The UKIE gives SE Mass between 2-2.5" of precip. wth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 MPM come back Might actually get some clouds now. I'm going to be pissed if the NW trend ruins my sunny day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The ukie would easily giveSe Mass 12"+ even with rain to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Although again, on the Ukie there is quite a bit of wasted qpf from a line just SE of BOS-PVD. Still hammers, but I wouldn't be surprised to see similar snowfall totals out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 12z Ukie qpf, In case some cant do the math, 25.4 mm is 1".......... PA_000-072_0000 ukie.gif Very robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 whoa baby...50s on Saturday morning here. torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The UKIE gives SE Mass between 2-2.5" of precip. wth Flips sometime between 24-30hr down there. 2m +2C is around TAN 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Although again, on the Ukie there is quite a bit of wasted qpf from a line just SE of BOS-PVD. Still hammers, but I wouldn't be surprised to see similar snowfall totals out this way. If one was to believe that up here we probably would not waste much of that here, But want to see the Euro jump first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 whoa baby...50s on Saturday morning here. torch! Enjoy the warmth. It's the only weather you got. I think it's great that out NE folks are finally getting in on the action. I can use the break myself...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 actually ...that may not be the case. you may hear them either way. i've noticed this year to year (indulge the OT for a moment...) that birds tend to chirp suddenly around the first of Feb, and. ..they do so even during snow storms. last year during some of those Feb blitzes i heard birds outside my window as the dark of night succumbed to the first light of the mornings. it evoked thoughts and sentiments of april as i climbed out of slumber, thinking also the storm supposedly in hand must had missed. only to see white out when peering out the window. ..weird... i think it is species dependent - tru -but also, i think they trigger based around the solar rad returning. that's my hunch. light earlier means start arguing about who gets spring-lade. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The probability maps/tables don't match the expected amount map. They say they updated at 10:30 this morning.Windows 98,takes time for them to upload them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Windows 98,takes time for them to upload them Still, they didn't include Tolland County in the WSW. When they say no to the model consensus, it does give me pause. They have relied on mesos and been correct in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Wow I'm impressed with the models so far I forgot what more then an inch of snow otg looks like lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Wow I'm impressed with the models so far I forgot what more then an inch of snow otg looks like lol maybe we will wind up with some of that deform magic that i hear about all the time in esne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The UKIE gives SE Mass between 2-2.5" of precip. wth I can't believe that...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Living on the edge here, nothing knew. I'll take what I can get though. Anything but torched wet days in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Meh, the whole thing is going to get blown up eventually. Nobody understands the difference between watches and warnings anyway, let alone a warning and an advisory. Unless you live in OKC that is. I mean how often do you hear, "WFO XYZ downgraded me from a watch to an advisory" That's not a downgrade, that's an upgrade, to a product that says it is imminent or occurring now. And advisory snow can be just as dangerous as warning snow, especially timing and duration. So yes, the system will change, but chances are people will still be upset with it. This event highlights a few of those issues. If an advisory is issued following a watch, it is reasonably interpreted to mean that the event is expected to have less impact than it was previously thought it could have. Watches obviously aren't typically issued for events that are expected to stay below the warning threshold. So I think your upgrade, downgrade comment is misleading. Technically the issuance of a new advisory portends a now imminent (previously uncertain) impact, but the magnitude of the potential impacts have been downgraded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Why the WSW for totals like that above? Riddle me that Forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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