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The AnaFront/Coastal Storm Disco 02/05/16


Damage In Tolland

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I'm in the west trend camp for the Thurs. night/Fri. deal.  I think this has room to come west.  These waves can bring sneaky heavy precip that trains and backbuilds.  Lower level temps look problematic though.  Some combination of elevation and a bit more SLP development is needed.  Next week threats are still very iffy.  Gotta try to maximize what you can get in the short term.

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Wtf....is that actually New England?...lol.

 

Yeah but it's completely inaccurate...even CHH is probably low from everything I know of the Cape.

 

ACK used to keep good records when they had an FAA observer, but that discontinued in like 1980 or 1981. ACK had averaged around 28-29".

 

 

Anyways...off topic.

 

 

 

I'm quite meh on this threat...maybe a sloppy coating for SE MA.

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GFS was pretty similar to 18z -- touch SE. GGEM on the other hand has accumulating snow for a lot of SNE and is probably close to advisory criteria in eastern areas.

 

ggem.png
 
ggem_2.png
 
 
Euro made a big jump NW at 12z -- I'd want to see it do that again before I believe a solution like the one depicted above.
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ukie_omfg_1.gif

 

ukie_omfg_2.gif

 

 

Tell me you're not just a little bit interested after the Ukie drops warning criteria amounts over most of the region(I don't have temps yet(Edit: From the meteograms I can see, I think it's about .5" of rain followed by ~8" of snow at BOS and .25" or so of rain followed by ~6" of snow at BDL), but I'm assuming everything in the second panel is snow considering that's after 12z Friday when guidance is in pretty good agreement on a snow column and I'd bet a bunch of the first panel is snow for interior areas as well. Regardless, WOW!!)

 

While I don't buy it completely and won't until something else comes onboard like that, it's worth noting that sometimes, we fail to notice what's right under our noses as we chase longrange ideals. This might be one of those times...

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Euro took a decent jump NW -- not as exciting as the GGEM/Ukie, but it brings the 1" of snow line to just NW of BOS-PVD and the 2" line just SE with 3-5" on the cape and low end warning snows on ACK/MVY. Ensembles are more bullish(Similar to the GGEM from last night) as Dendrite said.

 

6z RGEM also looks pretty good at the end of it's run through 54 hours.

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