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The AnaFront/Coastal Storm Disco 02/05/16


Damage In Tolland

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BOS gets darn near a foot of snow on that run...they probably waste about 0.25" of QPF on rain or rain/snow mix, but then it goes nuclear for several hours

 

The 06z did waste about a half inch at BOS before the flip.

 

You can even see it on the simulated reflectivity products, where in the center of the precip shield flips first in the heavy omega.

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well we are giving a private tour to a high end client flying into PVD at 1045 tomorrow so other than weenies there are some decisions that might hinge on NWS headlines

 

Well what changes based on a WSW being issued now or at 4? It's going to snow, and accumulate either way. Seriously, I'm curious.

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Climo dictates ... it is very hard to bring a v-max along the NAM's trajectory for this thing (looking back some 4 cycles or more...) without consequence in CT-RI-E MA and SE NH... 

 

That's the critical 1.5 deg lat/lon axis for frontogenetic banding - code for someone over-producing.  The jet max riding on the NW side of the llv baroclinic axis means you're likely to generate a goodly stripe or two of -EPV...with a pretty smart vertically oriented UVM core(s).  ANA phenomenon is really that playing out whether there is a closed circulation or not associated with said llv baro

 

I also don't believe this is a pure ANA scenario, as there are clear cyclogenetic events going on with this thing. 

 

I'm also a bit leery of outright discounting the NAM along the popular vote to do so with that particular model.  As I was discussing with ...someone on this board last evening, the NAM tends to do good when there is llv thickness packing/thermal gradients that are high.  It may be coincidence that whatever convective parameterization the NAM uses ...happens to perform well in those scenarios, but whenever there is a strong difluence moving over top that kind of thickness gradient, the NAM's tiltng the elevated frontal slopes more vertical...maximizing lift, together with convective processes adds to elevated instability... all of which feeds back dynamically and the storm mechanically resolves NW guidance consensus.  

 

That's ...about precisely what happened in Dec 2005 ...though this is no analog per se, the baser idea of strong DPVA and difluence running up on the NW (cold side) of nascent polar frontal displacement hearkens to potential. 

 

We'll see how it plays out, but I wouldn't be shocked if warning level event stripes SE NE...    IF IF IF, the NAM is correct with that vorticity max both timing and placement throughout. 

This is precisely what came to mind after reading the first few lines of your post.

Uncanny.

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I'll chuck another caution flag out there too, mainly for NW fringe QPF queens. This is something Ekster likes to peek at in these marginal cases, the saturation of forecast soundings. Normally you like to see the temp/dewpoint traces smack on top of each other. In this case, the farther NW you go the more there is sign of sub-saturation. Might make moderate snow tough to achieve for some in those zones.

 

 

Starts to show up on the NAM on a ORE-BDL axis...you can see it struggling to get totally full saturation.

Where does this zone begin this this area...ne MA?

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Sounds reasonable.

 

I still feel like this will kick back a bit.

 

NAM soundings look fine for BOS through PSM and PWM as far as saturation goes, but it's when you head west it gets a little more iffy. It's worse for ORH to MHT, and even worse still as you get near GYX where the sounding is as much as 2oC below saturation.

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