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The AnaFront/Coastal Storm Disco 02/05/16


Damage In Tolland

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I wonder if models are biasing 2m a little warm here...950 gets reasonably cold...so it could be more like 29-30F across a lot of the area rather than 32...though down near PYM and SE RI I think it could be glop for a while at 33F.

 

NAM Bufkit has BOS rotting around 0oC at 950 mb late tonight, but as soon as precip starts it's bang down to -2.5

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Possible caution flag for tomorrow morning's snow is a rather unimpressive look on the NCAR ensembles.

 

 

I'll chuck another caution flag out there too, mainly for NW fringe QPF queens. This is something Ekster likes to peek at in these marginal cases, the saturation of forecast soundings. Normally you like to see the temp/dewpoint traces smack on top of each other. In this case, the farther NW you go the more there is sign of sub-saturation. Might make moderate snow tough to achieve for some in those zones.

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I'll chuck another caution flag out there too, mainly for NW fringe QPF queens. This is something Ekster likes to peek at in these marginal cases, the saturation of forecast soundings. Normally you like to see the temp/dewpoint traces smack on top of each other. In this case, the farther NW you go the more there is sign of sub-saturation. Might make moderate snow tough to achieve for some in those zones.

 

Starts to show up on the NAM on a ORE-BDL axis...you can see it struggling to get totally full saturation.

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Well, I don't live in SNE, So yeah, These don't favor here, Never have, And i won't be to surprised if this ends up a few tics east when its all said and done, Pretty sharp cutoff to the NW as well, My interest lies in next weeks system

Any paste we might receive is gone within 24 hours, so I'm not devoting much more bandwidth to this. Hopefully next week works out.

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They'll usually start putting together the discussion well before that. They could have had that portion already written by 430 or so. Who knows. Though 6am is definitely a bit later than they normally put it out.

Either way I do think there were some head scratchers in there like focusing on SREF members like the NMM.

 

Yeah, the AFD might even be required to be issued by 4:30 or 5. I can't remember exactly. Typically it's much earlier than that.

 

Of course that paradigm is shifting now with the introduction of the ESTF (Enhanced Short Term Forecast) where we updated at least every 3 hours to keep things fresh. In essence there is no more "main package" anymore and the forecast is continually evolving. It would give us more latitude to issue products, like headlines, on "off hour" updates if trends are strong. Naturally we still give weight towards media times, so people like Ryan can actually get our word out to someone other than the weenies on here.

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Still waiting for BOX to do something.

 

 

They aren't going to do anything until after 12z models....they have the early morning package and the afternoon package, so unless they are in the middle of the storm now-casting, they won't change anything for a few hours.

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They aren't going to do anything until after 12z models....they have the early morning package and the afternoon package, so unless they are in the middle of the storm now-casting, they won't change anything for a few hours.

Well we have the NAM/RGEM with good hits. Now is when I'd be redrawing the maps. But then again I'm not a meteorologist I just play one on this forum.

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Well we have the NAM/RGEM with good hits. Now is when I'd be redrawing the maps. But then again I'm not a meteorologist I just play one on this forum.

 

Online yes, but it takes time to get into our system for editing. Right now the RGEM is out through 18z Fri, but the GFS for instance hasn't even dumped hour 0 in yet.

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I will say, as robust as the NAM forecast is (and it's not just surface plots either, mid levels look good), I think some are forgetting the QPF rule. It still tends to overforecast amounts. 

 

So I hope nobody is banking those double digit amounts. 

 

Some of the QPF especially in SE MA may be used up a bit until temps drop to 33 or so.

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