dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Skepticism prevails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I wonder if models are biasing 2m a little warm here...950 gets reasonably cold...so it could be more like 29-30F across a lot of the area rather than 32...though down near PYM and SE RI I think it could be glop for a while at 33F. NAM Bufkit has BOS rotting around 0oC at 950 mb late tonight, but as soon as precip starts it's bang down to -2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Skepticism prevails Meh, we snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Meh, we snow. congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 Skepticism prevailsMaybe for your area.. Not SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan Possible caution flag for tomorrow morning's snow is a rather unimpressive look on the NCAR ensembles. I'll chuck another caution flag out there too, mainly for NW fringe QPF queens. This is something Ekster likes to peek at in these marginal cases, the saturation of forecast soundings. Normally you like to see the temp/dewpoint traces smack on top of each other. In this case, the farther NW you go the more there is sign of sub-saturation. Might make moderate snow tough to achieve for some in those zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 LLJ really rips as the precip exits tomorrow PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Maybe for your area.. Not SNE Well, I don't live in SNE, So yeah, These don't favor here, Never have, And i won't be to surprised if this ends up a few tics east when its all said and done, Pretty sharp cutoff to the NW as well, My interest lies in next weeks system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'll chuck another caution flag out there too, mainly for NW fringe QPF queens. This is something Ekster likes to peek at in these marginal cases, the saturation of forecast soundings. Normally you like to see the temp/dewpoint traces smack on top of each other. In this case, the farther NW you go the more there is sign of sub-saturation. Might make moderate snow tough to achieve for some in those zones. Starts to show up on the NAM on a ORE-BDL axis...you can see it struggling to get totally full saturation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Per Ryan's discussion... Rather meh, ARW ensemble. Only 4 of 10 with warning criteria in the BOX CWA. It is a 00z run, but I think it probably captures a realistic range of outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Well, I don't live in SNE, So yeah, These don't favor here, Never have, And i won't be to surprised if this ends up a few tics east when its all said and done, Pretty sharp cutoff to the NW as well, My interest lies in next weeks system Any paste we might receive is gone within 24 hours, so I'm not devoting much more bandwidth to this. Hopefully next week works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan 2m2 minutes ago Tim Kelley NECN Retweeted Michael Page winter storm watch expansion watch in effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Any paste we might receive is gone within 24 hours, so I'm not devoting much more bandwidth to this. Hopefully next week works out. Pretty much been my focus, If i see a few flakes from this i'll call it a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Granted this started with a euro run (the tick west). And I think also a ukie run way back. However, I will say 4k nam has had a good winter. Along with a few other meso models that are banging the weenie drum. I'm pretty confident for BOS. I'm more confident than I was in the last storm (snowzilla/jonas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Pretty much been my focus, If i see a few flakes from this i'll call it a win I think NNE is buried late winter into early spring. Just gut. But it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I think NNE is buried late winter into early spring. Just gut. But it is what it is. I'm sure we will, That's when i have closed the book on winter generally....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 RGEM snow precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 RGEM snow precip: That's a good dump still. Solid load. Very fulfilling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 RGEM snow precip: Congrats North Foster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Still waiting for BOX to do something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 They'll usually start putting together the discussion well before that. They could have had that portion already written by 430 or so. Who knows. Though 6am is definitely a bit later than they normally put it out. Either way I do think there were some head scratchers in there like focusing on SREF members like the NMM. Yeah, the AFD might even be required to be issued by 4:30 or 5. I can't remember exactly. Typically it's much earlier than that. Of course that paradigm is shifting now with the introduction of the ESTF (Enhanced Short Term Forecast) where we updated at least every 3 hours to keep things fresh. In essence there is no more "main package" anymore and the forecast is continually evolving. It would give us more latitude to issue products, like headlines, on "off hour" updates if trends are strong. Naturally we still give weight towards media times, so people like Ryan can actually get our word out to someone other than the weenies on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Still waiting for BOX to do something. They aren't going to do anything until after 12z models....they have the early morning package and the afternoon package, so unless they are in the middle of the storm now-casting, they won't change anything for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 RGEM is like 10" here...... We don't toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 They aren't going to do anything until after 12z models....they have the early morning package and the afternoon package, so unless they are in the middle of the storm now-casting, they won't change anything for a few hours. Well we have the NAM/RGEM with good hits. Now is when I'd be redrawing the maps. But then again I'm not a meteorologist I just play one on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I will say, as robust as the NAM forecast is (and it's not just surface plots either, mid levels look good), I think some are forgetting the QPF rule. It still tends to overforecast amounts. So I hope nobody is banking those double digit amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'm sure we will, That's when i have closed the book on winter generally....lol I submitted my official meltdown today in the Debra thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Congrats North Foster. Looking at the qpf, It did not change from 6z up here, Maybe a tic west when i toggle it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I submitted my official meltdown today in the Debra thread. lol, I will check it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Well we have the NAM/RGEM with good hits. Now is when I'd be redrawing the maps. But then again I'm not a meteorologist I just play one on this forum. Online yes, but it takes time to get into our system for editing. Right now the RGEM is out through 18z Fri, but the GFS for instance hasn't even dumped hour 0 in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I will say, as robust as the NAM forecast is (and it's not just surface plots either, mid levels look good), I think some are forgetting the QPF rule. It still tends to overforecast amounts. So I hope nobody is banking those double digit amounts. Some of the QPF especially in SE MA may be used up a bit until temps drop to 33 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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